yoda

Right at peak time for severe... 19z to 21z

Afternoon AFD from LWX sounds interesting SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A lead wave ahead of a frontal system over the Ohio River Valley will approach the area late Wednesday. Ridging will crest over the area before heights begin to fall by Wednesday night. Given the increasingly warm and unstable airmass, as well as some added lift from terrain and the approach system to the west, a few thunderstorms could develop mainly west of the Blue Ridge late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sufficient shear will be present for storm organization, so a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The frontal system is set to cross the region on Thursday. Cooling air moving in aloft above unseasonably warm and moist air near the surface will likely result in moderate instability. This coupled with moderately strong shear and forcing along the approaching front should result in widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and large hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given relatively weaker flow closer to the surface, but there is enough shear for supercells. Also, any boundary interactions (terrain/bay/river breeze circulations) could enhance this activity. Temperatures will be very warm with highs well into the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 east of the mountains Wednesday into Thursday, 20 to 30 degrees above normal and more akin to summer than spring. Temperatures will take a tumble Thursday night behind the front.

Discussion was pretty decent as well Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Deep South Texas Thursday. ...Synopsis... Within the main branch of split westerlies emanating from the Pacific, models indicate that a broad, occluded cyclone, initially centered near James Bay, will continue to weaken during this period. Renewed cyclogenesis may occur farther east, across northern Quebec through Newfoundland and Labrador, but it appears that this will remain modest in strength. The associated cold front trailing to the south is forecast to advance from the upper Ohio Valley and lee of the lower Great Lakes across much of the northern into middle Atlantic by late Thursday night, as the remnant mid-level troughing accelerates eastward and suppresses mid-level short wave ridging initially building across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. In lower latitudes, prominent mid-level ridging appears likely to be maintained, centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula, and a considerable influence across much of the Southeast. Beneath its northwestern periphery, the trailing flank of the cold front is expected to weaken while slowly advancing across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, seasonably moist return flow will persist along/above it, downstream of low amplitude mid-level troughing across the subtropical eastern Pacific into the northern Mexican Plateau. ...Mid Atlantic... Preceding the cold front, models continue indicate that low-level moisture return coupled with daytime heating will support modest destabilization east of the Allegheny Mountains by Thursday afternoon. Scattered storms probably will initiate along the higher terrain, with at least deep-layer shear conducive to supercells structures posing a risk for severe wind and hail. Tornado potential remains a bit more uncertain. Storms are likely to gradually spread off the higher terrain with the mid-level height falls, and they could eventually consolidate into an organizing line or cluster overspreading coastal areas with potential for damaging wind gusts. It does not appear out of the question that severe weather probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI....CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the lower Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into portions of the Mid South. These could pose a risk for a few strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... As initially amplified mid-level ridging over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific gradually becomes suppressed, models indicate that downstream troughing will broaden from the Great Basin into the Mississippi Valley. This will be lead by a vigorous short wave trough, which is forecast to be accompanied by continuing strong surface cyclogenesis from the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, and building downstream mid-level ridging across the Upper Ohio Valley into Ontario, as well as across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into Southeast. An intensifying southwesterly mid/upper jet streak (including speeds in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb) nosing across the central Great Plains through Upper Midwest will contribute to strong deep-layer shear within the warm sector of the cyclone. At the same time, intensification of southerly lower-level flow (to 50-70+ kt around 850 mb) likely will contribute to large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. This could potentially contribute to an environment conducive to supercells and organizing lines or clusters capable of producing strong tornadoes and damaging winds, where large-scale forcing for ascent and thermodynamic profiles can become favorable. However, among a number of substantive lingering uncertainties, the quality of the boundary-layer moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico remains in question. Due to (at least initially) relatively shallow boundary-layer depth, downward mixing of drier air might impact sizable pockets of the potentially broad warm sector through the day, based on model output. Also, ahead of the mid/upper troughing, destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and an influx of high-level moisture from the subtropical Pacific may contribute to convective development which tends to saturate and stabilize lapse rates down into the mid-levels, across much of the Ozark Plateau into middle Mississippi Valley. While it appears that this will not completely erode the capping elevated mixed-layer air, thickening cloud cover aloft may inhibit surface heating and suppress potential thunderstorm development in the absence of lift to overcome the inhibition. ...Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley... Both the latest NAM and Rapid Refresh appear increasingly suggestive that the dryline could surge east-northeastward across southwestern Iowa and northwestern/west central Missouri, at least above the surface, by mid to late afternoon, in response to the progression of at least one speed maximum within the mid-level flow. Model output generally indicates that largest CAPE will become focused ahead of this feature, and south of the warm front advancing northward across central Iowa/northern Illinois during the late afternoon. And the dryline might provide a focus for sustained discrete supercell development with the potential to produce strong tornadoes while propagating northeastward across northeastern Missouri and southeastern Iowa into northwestern and west central Illinois through early evening. In the wake of this activity, as the cold front begins to overtake the dryline and advance southeastward, various model output continues to suggest that the evolution of an organizing line or cluster of storms is possible. This may pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes while propagating east-southeastward across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity into Tuesday night. Farther south, developments initially along the dryline and then ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front remain a bit more unclear. However, there has been a persistent signal within the model output that a narrow corridor of more substantive boundary-layer moistening could provide a focus for enhanced severe weather potential by Tuesday evening. It is possible that associated destabilization may become aligned with the strong deep-layer mean flow, possibly allowing for the evolution of one or two long track supercells, ahead of a developing squall line. ..Kerr.. 04/03/2023

Um, all of a sudden very quiet here as the next wave if wind is coming

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 903 PM EDT SAT APR 01 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0854 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BWI MARSHALL AIRPORT 39.17N 76.68W 04/01/2023 M63 MPH ANNE ARUNDEL MD ASOS && EVENT NUMBER LWX2300828

18z GFS has some interesting soundings just south of DCA at 21z Wednesday

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 843 PM EDT SAT APR 01 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0820 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E WOODSBORO 39.54N 77.26W 04/01/2023 M68 MPH FREDERICK MD MESONET && EVENT NUMBER LWX2300819

Looks like another line of showers coming off the BR

Same here

Uh, hopefully thats not about to plow through metro Tupelo

TOG in Springville

Confirmed TOG in Springville, TN

Great... @weatherwiz is going to run naked seeing that

Mesoscale Discussion 0419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0931 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Illinois...Indiana...Western and Central Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 010231Z - 010430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours across eastern Illinois and Indiana southward into western Kentucky. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Weather watch issuance could be necessary later this evening to the east of WW 98 in parts of far eastern Indiana and western Ohio. DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Indianapolis shows scattered severe storms in eastern Illinois and western Indiana, including some supercells and short bowing line segments. A second cluster of strong to severe storms is located near the Ohio River in far southwest Indiana. To the west of these storm clusters, an axis of moderate instability is located from far southeast Missouri north-northeastward into eastern Illinois. At mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is located across southern Missouri. The exit region of the jet is moving across the lower Ohio Valley, which is associated with a broad zone of large-scale ascent and very strong deep-layer shear. In response, intense convective development will continue over the next few hours. Ahead of the mid-level jet, a 65 to 75 knot low-level jet is located from western Kentucky into central Indiana. This feature will create the strong low-level shear favorable for tornadoes, especially with the more dominant supercells. Large hail will also be likely with supercells. The greatest wind-damage potential should be concentrated along the more intense parts of line segments. ..Broyles.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

2 confirmed fatalities in Wynne AR... police chief reports town "complete destruction"

Katie bar the door Severe Thunderstorm Warning ILC031-043-097-111-197-010200- /O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0023.230401T0052Z-230401T0200Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 752 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Lake County in northeastern Illinois... Will County in northeastern Illinois... McHenry County in northeastern Illinois... DuPage County in northeastern Illinois... Cook County in northeastern Illinois... * Until 900 PM CDT. * At 752 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Beloit to near Sugar Grove to near Yorkville to near South Streator, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Aurora and St. Charles around 800 PM CDT. Naperville, West Chicago, Shorewood, Warrenville and Dupage Airport around 805 PM CDT. Wheaton, Carol Stream, Plainfield, Lisle, Bloomingdale, Crest Hill and Winfield around 810 PM CDT. Bolingbrook, Downers Grove, Lombard, Romeoville, Addison, Glendale Heights, Woodridge, Glen Ellyn, Lockport and Darien around 815 PM CDT. Elmhurst, Elk Grove Village, Homer Glen, Hinsdale, Lemont, Burr Ridge, Oak Brook, Westmont, Villa Park and Bensenville around 820 PM CDT. Orland Park, Tinley Park, Ohare Airport, Melrose Park, Maywood, Brookfield, Mokena, Franklin Park, Palos Hills and Westchester around 825 PM CDT. Cicero, Oak Lawn, Berwyn, Oak Park, Austin, Burbank, Oak Forest, Alsip, Belmont Cragin and Dunning around 830 PM CDT. Chicago, West Town, Lincoln Park, Chicago Loop, Lake View, Irving Park, South Lawndale, Bridgeport, Chicago Lawn and West Ridge around 835 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central and northeastern Illinois...and northwestern Indiana. && LAT...LON 4249 8780 4227 8783 4206 8767 4185 8761 4173 8752 4130 8753 4129 8801 4121 8801 4120 8824 4207 8826 4207 8824 4215 8824 4215 8859 4249 8861 TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 261DEG 52KT 4256 8898 4183 8847 4158 8846 4110 8878 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH

Confirmed TOG near Paxton and another one by Belvidere

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 503 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ARC035-037-312230- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-230331T2230Z/ Crittenden AR-Cross AR- 503 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR PARKIN AND EARLE... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN CRITTENDEN AND EAST CENTRAL CROSS COUNTIES... At 501 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Parkin, moving east at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Parkin and Earle. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 500 PM, trained spotters confirmed a large tornado moving across HWY 64 at Riverfront in west Parkin. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Earle, Parkin, Gilmore, Jericho, Turrell, Clarkedale, Smithdale, Three Forks, Togo, Booker, Lansing, Duvall, Lambethville, Colton, Twist, Stacy, Cloar, Galilee, Heafer and Coldwater. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Rare, well IMO, Storm warnings up for parts of the Tidal Potomac as well as parts of the Chesapeake Bay waters

High Wind Warning up for DC/BWI metros URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>506-VAZ040-053-054-501-505-506- 526-527-010230- /O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.230401T1600Z-230402T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0002.230401T1600Z-230402T0400Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Saturday afternoon, becoming northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph Saturday evening. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night. The strongest winds are expected Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Mesoscale Discussion 0395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...94... Valid 311753Z - 311930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93, 94 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat may gradually increase over the next couple of hours as storms in northern AR mature and shift northeastward. Strong shear downstream may support the potential for strong long-track tornadoes. Additional storms are possible later in the day. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster of strong to severe storms exiting northern AR into portions of southeastern MO. Likely at the eastern edge of diurnal destabilization, these storms have been slowly maturing over the last 90 minutes. Already displaying supercell characteristics, these storms are expected to move into a destabilizing and strongly sheared environment across southeastern MO, southern IL and western KY later this afternoon and into the evening. The initial severe threat is likely to be large hail as storms may remain slightly elevated and the environment destabilizes. As remaining MLCINH is eroded, area RAP sounding show the environment becoming potentially favorable for significant tornadoes with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 and STP values of 4-5. The initial storms may be somewhat slow to mature as inhibition is overcome, but multiple rounds of convection appear likely with clearing skies and cumulus streets evident on visible imagery farther west. HRRR and WOFS guidance show multiple supercells with the potential for all hazards through this evening. ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

Mesoscale Discussion 0394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...far northern MO...southern IA Concerning...Tornado Watch 93... Valid 311751Z - 311915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase through 200-230pm CDT. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches diameter) is possible with the more intense supercells. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows explosive supercell development across northern MO into southern IA. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 70s with surface dewpoints in the 60-62 deg F range. The latest RAP forecast soundings show very steep surface to 300-mb lapse rates (7.5 deg C/km) with impressive southwesterly speed shear with height. As the supercells mature and the surface low deepens through mid afternoon, some backing of near-surface winds is expected with low-level hodographs enlarging through 2-3pm. As this hodograph change occurs, tornado potential will markedly increase. Very large low-level buoyancy (0-3 km MLCAPE 200-300 J/kg) and the intensifying low-level mesocyclones will combine to support the potential for strong tornadoes with supercells as they rapidly move northeast into south-central IA and approach the I-80 corridor. ..Smith.. 03/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...