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Everything posted by WeatherNC

  1. I'm in Birmingham this week and next for work, not a big SVR guy, prefer heavy snow, but somewhat concerned and at he same time a little pumped for what may be my 2nd time ever in a Day 1 High risk. The Boran model posted earlier is a private model from my understanding, based on the WRF and around a 2km res through 60hrs. The precip plots from the ECMWF strongly indicates discrete and long tracked cells.
  3. High res precip, widespread 2 to 3 tenths with locally more.
  4. Look at your 500mb vorticity evolution preferably on a site like Nexlab where you can slide the panels back and forth. There’s an 850 too, would like to see it more tucked in to the coast which means H5 needs to sharper and tune a little sooner.
  5. First run I have seen with some snow in NE NC through 57hrs, ~1” using Kuchera and 2” on stock 10:1.
  6. Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps. I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.
  7. More the lack of run to run continuity with the ops and ensemble support 7 days out, while in no way unusual lets still be real, it's a unicorn at this very early stage.
  8. Next weekend has my interest for the MA, to a point where tentative PTO for 1/21 was submitted yesterday and the current chase envelope includes PA. I am not driving that far for 16-20" though, need a solid 2' hatch with guidance painting 30"+ lollipops. At H5 its not far off, just need that PV lobe in Quebec to keep distance. Big dogs often come at the bookends of a pattern change.
  9. 0.92" event total, all RN.
  10. 39.9/26.2 with a few sprinkles, nothing to see here in the coastal plain.
  11. Really really nice LR run of the 12z GFS, 1/19-1/21 is very close to a sig winter storm for the eastern US, not far off from being a long wave axis going neg tilt ivo the MS river. Then another chance, albeit less impressive at H5 on 1/23, wrapping up with a lobe of the PV in SE Canada with energy entering MT.
  12. Happy New Year gents, 68F outback, punting to 1/21.
  13. As things currently stand, there will be some moisture in play for the SE around Christmas, thermal profile TBD but looking marginal at best with low cutting through the Lakes and lackluster HP coming down in the Plains.
  14. 33 and IP, exhausted but likely staying up to see if any flakes mix in, or the off chance we see a light accumulation.
  15. Drove from Boone to Greenville today, coverage was total to around Zebulon. Takes a rare bird to lay down that areal extent in NC, even areas to the east saw cover yesterday before it melted. 40 north, solid A.
  16. 20" was the measurement this morning after the back-end bonus stopped. We had 18-19" yesterday and picked up another 4" this morning. With compaction 20" was the most uniform measurement. Back safely in Greenville, 421-40 were not bad, primary hazard is idiots driving with mini icebergs on their cars.
  17. Picked up about 3" of trailing vort bonus snow and still coming down at a good clip. We had a couple hours of freezing drizzle yesterday evening and that coated the trees, really helping this wetter snow stick to everything. Yardstick on the deck is at 20".