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Everything posted by WeatherNC

  1. 3 paragraph essay with the long term... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 420 PM Sunday... Given the complexity of the forecast flow aloft across the CONUS this week, there not surprisingly remains amplitude and timing differences with individual shortwave perturbations embedded within that flow. While the GFS remains a deep outlier with respect to 500 mb heights over the cntl Appalachians/middle Atlantic at 00Z-12Z Wed, it has trended toward an otherwise relatively good model consensus during that time; and the associated QPF signal east of the Appalachians in recent days is consequently absent, or very light. As such, no measurable precipitation will be forecast in cntl NC at this time, with instead a chance of sprinkles over the Piedmont Tue night, and again over the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain with diurnal heating Wed, related to the passage of a secondary shortwave trough and associated similarly strong height falls and mid level Fgen. As previously noted, any very light resulting precipitation during either time would be liquid based on forecast (wet bulb) thermal profiles. It will otherwise be colder through the end of the week, as the trough aloft and cP high pressure migrate ewd across the srn Appalachians and sern US - coldest Thu, when highs will be in the 40s and lows solidly in the 20s. A reinforcing cold front, and leading edge of a fresh, stronger cP high, will then move swd through VA/NC late Fri-Fri night, setting the stage for the arrival of a srn stream system, or two, next weekend. The ewd progression of the parent, significant closed low forecast to migrate through split flow across the ern N Pacific, to near srn CA by the end of the week, has slowed in recent model cycles - perhaps not surprisingly given that such closed lows often take longer to eject ewd than what the models would suggest. As such, the arrival of resultant precipitation in cntl NC will likely be slower than previously indicated, particularly so given the presence of the aforementioned cP high and dryness extending from the upr Midwest, ewd and then swd in damming fashion east of the Appalachians. While forecast details remain uncertain, pattern recognition with a favorably positioned, cold high, and significant cyclogenesis from the GOM to the sern and middle Atlantic coast, favors wintry precipitation over the middle Atlantic states, including particularly the climatologically-favored areas of cntl NC. Given the time range and uncertainty, forecast p-types of only rain and snow will be included at this time. However, there would most likely be some degree of broader mixed p-type transition zones given that the parent trough aloft is forecast to remain west of the Appalachians through the weekend, with probable mid level warming across portions of the Carolinas. &&
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  3. Classic mid-south winter storm on the Euro, as stated heaviest totals focused in NE GA, upstate and SW NC. Raleigh is fringed and has mixing issues. I’ll be honest, this is a good look for central VA 7 days out on the Euro.
  4. Certainly the period where you want to see a suppressed trend commence.
  5. Stock 10:1 with winter wx flag set but just guessing...
  6. Like the idea of a significant eastern US low around 12/1-2, details TBD...
  7. Same here, 63/61 with an E wind 8 G 28. Spent most of the morning in the mid 40's, pretty impressive for late October.
  8. Legit signal for the 27-28th, dominant SLP track west of the Apps would introduce SVR probs to the east this time of year with a meso transfer...
  9. DOD is bringing Lockheed in on the F-22s, roughly 10% of the fleet were left back due to maintenance.
  10. North of 120mph vis really starts to push zero, a pure white out is usually indicative of upper echelone canes which is scene there around 1:11.
  11. A little over 10” here, about 25 miles removed from the 12-15” totals and 30 miles south 20” plus. Creek is still in flood stage and dumping some water in to the back 40, Tar basin dodged a bullet.
  12. Let’s be honest, sub 960 on a Cat 1 is BS. Not sure when the NHC will get the impact equation right but ~1 minute sustained is not the answer as you are currently witness to.
  13. Going to be a dark weekend in Jacksonville, are you supplied by Duke?
  14. Lightning feed from radar scope does not support, could be wrong but those flashes are more than likely disruptions to the grid. Sorry man, likely 5+ days down there dependent on inland flooding.
  15. Transformers? We lived in J-actionville for 4 years, road out Isabel but this will be an order of magnitude worse.
  16. Really starting to wrap up that inner core based on IR, radar may be a little slow to respond.
  17. Hot towers starting to show some urgency in encompassing the center, leading in from the south side.
  18. How much above that gauge level are you? Do you know? anything under 30' I would be concerned.
  19. No recent microwave but if IR as any indication, structure is finally looking more favorable for slow strengthening.
  20. It won't be good, Lumber and Cape Fear basins, based on RAH's historical graphics, Floyd + Dennis type total plus 10" in a single event.