wncsnow

GFS is even warmer this run for the 4th-5th for piedmont areas

Seems to be the theme all winter.

ICONic

I'm still trying to hold out an ounce of hope for mid February but it's getting harder to be excited with all these teases from the ENS and now weeklies. A good pattern is always on the other side but you can never reach it..

Are the weeklies still showing a good pattern or have they moderated too?

It's chilly but not cold. You can feel a touch of spring in the air. No snow in Asheville, too warm. Wild in late January that you get a good NWFS and it's rain or mix except 3k and up.

The trough is too far northeast. The lack of cold air is alarming much like December again. It's going to take time to cool North America back down. We were punting until Mid Feb anyways right?

I drove over to Johnson City today up through Red Hill and Buladean in Mitchell county. You could tell where the heavy snow has fallen with the trees that have fell.

It is but generally the models have cut totals for Buncombe. It's going to be too warm tomorrow for it to stick in the lower elevations like Asheville. Whatever falls after dark will have a better shot at accumulating there. TN border will do great as usual. I'm just trying to see some snow at work Monday

Wacky pattern coming up. Rare to see ridging this strong in Canada in the winter. Hopefully we all score at some point.

Here watching the short range cut totals for Asheville.

Look at this.. even if it doesn't snow in the next few weeks this weird pattern is going to be something to behold

Not warm but definitely not cold

Northern Mtns are going to rack up again

All snarkiness aside, I think the pattern late next week is really fascinating albeit unlikely to produce snow for most (other than a little NWFS of course). Some nice North Atlantic blocking showing up causing a stagnant flow. So strange to see a map like this...

Really anomalous pattern coming up. Not often is the 540 line in Northern Canada and WNC at the same time..

Haven't seen the sun in 3 days, haven't seen snow IMBY in 2 years. Sarcasm is in short supply

Now we don't

Your looking at a strictly IMBY viewpoint. Last winter we had a similar cold stretch in December to the one we just had. We also had a decent NWFS in January which you just had this month. We also had no snow or even legitimate snow threats within 5 days for the foothills and piedmont last winter and that's been the case this winter too. It's been wetter overall since late December than last winter which has helped keep the temps down. Yes it has been a little colder overall but its not like this winter has been a complete 180 from last. The temperature departures in January are going to look like a La Nina, not an El Niño (cold upper Midwest). The system that brought TN valley snow was more like a La Nina system not El Nino. Most of the mountains and ski areas are still pretty far below their 30 year average for snow but obviously doing better than just east.

Thanks for verifying this. All I have been trying to say is the weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt. They are slightly better than searching for a black wooly worm.

This was 9 days ago and looks nothing like the upcoming pattern.

You know deep down what will happen. A few cold days then warm up and rain.

It was modeled about 7 to 10 days ago. Before that, the weeklies and long range ENS continued to say cold or average and stormy. Now the Pac Jet has taken over again. The fact is, this winter has been much like the last few. Temperatures have been slightly cooler but no synoptic storms, miller A's, ULL, etc.

The weeklies also showed the whole month of January being great into February at one point. We all see how that turned out. One week of cold temperatures and some snow in the mountains

The big picture says wait at least 3 weeks