wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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If it happens on the 18Z, does it really even happen at all? Kind of like if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound?
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Still waiting on that big Euro operational run.
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The majority of the op runs don't have a storm. There's no clear threat yet.
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Not even close to snow anywhere in the SE that run
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The models are trending west again with the trough.
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Give me the track over Florida. The NW trend used to always deliver
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Would like the PNA to be more positive than that
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Check out this post from Blacksburg NWS. La Nina will keep majority of the storms systems tracking north across the Ohio Valley this winter. Can not rule out a few colder than normal days in January 2025, but generally temperatures will average above normal for the area. There are no strong signals for above or below normal precipitation (rain or snow).
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What I'm concerned about is the once promising storm on the 6th/7th has turned into a cutter. We are already starting to delay the cold.
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Cold with little snow on the op euro
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It is but they are mostly dry. It could be too much of a good thing or it could be like the Euro op.
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Punting until after January 7th. We get a 1 to 2 week period to score.
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The models are starting to show a quick warmup after the initial cold push and a likely rain storm with the next front around January 6th/7th,
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It was about 8 inches of snow and some sleet in McDowell. Also- we haven't had a snow of over 4 inches in March since the blizzard of 93 imby. A couple 2 to 3 inch events but nothing major. March 2008 upper low was the downsloping fail of the century, March 2014 was only an inch of slop and mostly cold rain. It has to be the longest stretch of no major winter storms in February or March in history here.
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We haven't had a major snowstorm in February since 2014.
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2-4 inches of rain seems likely. Severe weather threat is increasing for Sunday too...
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I wish we got surprises like that still. Last surprise snow here was 2010 I think. I wasn't living here but I remember there being 3 or 4 inches of snow when none was forecast in December. I think there is a thread on it here too.
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We used to get a lot of 3-5 inch snow/sleet/zr events now it's usually nothing or one big snow per season. 2016- one big snowstorm 2018- one big snowstorm 2022- one big snowstorm 2020, 2023, 2024- nothing
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The flow was similar to what's progged on models. It was super cold after that Clipper. One of the few times (only?) it snowed Aspen type powder here. The wind blew most of it away (and sublimated) the following day even though it was 7-8 inches here and stayed in the low 20s the day after.
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I don't disagree with any of this. Most of your examples had robust shortwaves though and we are not seeing that in the long range yet. We might need a lee trough super Clipper scenario to score in the leeside areas. But that was an El Niño winter https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/
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Look at that snow predicted over the open Atlantic
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The operational. From hour 150 on really. It might be setting up for something better after 16 days if we can get a 50/50 low to setup in the NE
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The Euro trough is not what you want to see for snow. Way too far NE.
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Perhaps the outer banks
