wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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The models are starting to show a quick warmup after the initial cold push and a likely rain storm with the next front around January 6th/7th,
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It was about 8 inches of snow and some sleet in McDowell. Also- we haven't had a snow of over 4 inches in March since the blizzard of 93 imby. A couple 2 to 3 inch events but nothing major. March 2008 upper low was the downsloping fail of the century, March 2014 was only an inch of slop and mostly cold rain. It has to be the longest stretch of no major winter storms in February or March in history here.
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We haven't had a major snowstorm in February since 2014.
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2-4 inches of rain seems likely. Severe weather threat is increasing for Sunday too...
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I wish we got surprises like that still. Last surprise snow here was 2010 I think. I wasn't living here but I remember there being 3 or 4 inches of snow when none was forecast in December. I think there is a thread on it here too.
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We used to get a lot of 3-5 inch snow/sleet/zr events now it's usually nothing or one big snow per season. 2016- one big snowstorm 2018- one big snowstorm 2022- one big snowstorm 2020, 2023, 2024- nothing
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The flow was similar to what's progged on models. It was super cold after that Clipper. One of the few times (only?) it snowed Aspen type powder here. The wind blew most of it away (and sublimated) the following day even though it was 7-8 inches here and stayed in the low 20s the day after.
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I don't disagree with any of this. Most of your examples had robust shortwaves though and we are not seeing that in the long range yet. We might need a lee trough super Clipper scenario to score in the leeside areas. But that was an El Niño winter https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/
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Look at that snow predicted over the open Atlantic
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The operational. From hour 150 on really. It might be setting up for something better after 16 days if we can get a 50/50 low to setup in the NE
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The Euro trough is not what you want to see for snow. Way too far NE.
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Perhaps the outer banks
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The upcoming pattern looks similar to the one we had in early December.. not a snow pattern.
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That trough needs to be further west or it's cold, dry and windy for most of the SE.
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Merry Christmas, I wished for snow this winter!
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Yay cold and dry!
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Northern stream = brown ground
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Split flow with an active subtropical jet please
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GFS doesn't get cold through 16 days.
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I would normally agree with you but the past 3 or 4 winters have had a parade of storms cutting West of us with the SE Ridge flexing.
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La Nina cold usually dumps in the northern plains so it makes sense.
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SE Ridge about to flex
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The Operational models are backing off the cold already. If the ensembles start to follow it could be another case of misled hope.
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Cold, dry NW flow. Trough orientation still too far NE. Mountains will have chances with clippers and NW flow but the rest of us will be dry unless that trough orientation changes and we can fire up the subtropical jet.
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19 here
