wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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UK is way north with the first wave. GFS seems to be on an island. GFS has snow or ice where the UK has a potential severe outbreak in TN
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Looks squished to me but trying to turn the corner
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Canadian says no dice for storm 1. Too far north
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It did but it has the feeling of a heavy overrunning band of snow that will jackpot someone. I think sleet and ZR will be a big factor with storm 1 for cad areas.
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Ends up being a decent event for SW NC and a couple inches out across I 4O corridor.
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One of the strangest clown maps I've seen
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Odd looking setup but that's a heavy band of snow
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Incoming
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It's slowed down a bit too
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This might be a good run for the first wave unless it shears out
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Looks like the GFS will come in further south this run
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Watch the clipper system system on Friday. It's looking juicier on models
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1969 had one of the biggest snowstorms on record here in the foothills
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And that 2009/10 winter set the standard for modern east coast winters with that-NAO.
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This is more concerning to me. The PNA is only between 0 and +1. I would much rather see it +2.
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We really need the -NAO to drop to -2 or lower for it to dominate the storm track. Right now it's progged to drop to -1.75 or so before slowly rising in the middle of January.
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I don't think its time to give up hope but its undeniable that the trends have been very poor the past 24-36 hours. The means on all the globals have decreased dramatically. The QPF on the means have decreased dramatically.
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Those odds are not looking good now
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Texas becomes a glacier according to 12z euro.
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Central VA gets smoked with snow this run
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Euro is rain/cutter for system 1
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I think I'm going to start telling people this as well
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Euro is stuck on 54 on pivotalwx
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The GEFS has very little snow on its mean through 10 days. Slightly less than 6Z and 0Z.
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One thing I have noticed on multiple models is our southern stream energy being sheared out as it approached us. The UK looked like a big hit on the first wave but shears out the energy. Other models are doing this as well.
