wncsnow

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point.

Its continuing to trend to the northeast. I think landfall from Georgetown to Myrtle Beach is a good bet.

The flooding threat has diminished in WNC because its moving much faster and a little further east each cycle.

Euro and other models still trending NE and faster with Ian. I don't think WNC will get more than a couple inches of rain. Landfall might be closer to Georgetown than Hilton Head

GSP is pretty bullish on rain totals and overall impacts As of 215 pm Wednesday: Gusty easterly winds will steadily increase early in the short term, as the gradient tightens between 1030+ mb surface high over the Northeast, and T.C. Ian, which is expected to be making a brief excursion over the coastal waters off Jacksonville at the start of the period. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range appear likely from Fri morning into Fri afternoon, with the initial surge of tropical moisture/outer bands expected to overspread our CWA during the afternoon. Guidance remains in good agreement in turning Ian toward the N/NW Thu night/Friday, with a second landfall (most likely as a strong tropical storm) expected in the vicinity of Hilton Head Fri afternoon...with continued weakening to a depression expected as the center tracks into the western Carolinas Fri night/Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to remain widespread over our area from that through at least Saturday morning, with attendant ramping up of the excessive rainfall/ localized flash flooding threat. This threat is expected to be most pronounced across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where strong easterly flow will augment rainfall rates, and in a somewhat narrow axis along/just east of the cyclone track (generally just east of the I-26 corridor) where strong/deep convergence is expected to focus as the system takes on increasingly extra-tropical characteristics. In terms of the wind...gusts are expected to increase late Fri afternoon into Fri evening, as 60+ kt E/NE LLJ shifts across the area...with increasing chances for tropical rain bands to mix higher momentum air to the surface, despite expected surface-based stable layer/cold air damming (as an aside, this stability is expected to preclude a threat for tornadoes, despite at least a portion of the CWA being in a favorable quadrant of the cyclone). With that in mind, it does appear that occasional tropical storm-force gusts are a good bet, especially across the SC Piedmont later Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Pending continued coordination with neighboring WFOs, a Tropical Storm Watch MAY be issued for part of our area to coincide with the 5pm Advisory from NHC. A general consensus of guidance suggests that the remnant depression will more or less stall somewhere in the vicinity of the foothills on Saturday, as the quickly weakening cyclone begins to lose its battle against the sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of the East. As this occurs, the suggestion is that much of the eastern half or so of the area will become dry slotted Sat afternoon through Sat night, while heavy rainfall will remain possible within deformation zone region...mainly across portions of the central Appalachians, with continued enhancement of rainfall rates possible in these areas due to persistent...but weakening E/SE flow. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches (the bulk of which should fall through Sat night) are expected across the much of the eastern 2/3 of the CWA, with more like 2-4 inches across the west. The highest amounts are still expected across the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where 6 to 8 inches are forecast.

I think south of Charleston near Hilton Head seems likely for 2nd landfall but it has been shifting slightly north

The wind is going to be pretty significant I think for coastal areas of SC and even inland with the gradient of the strong high pressure in the NE.

37 here but no frost yet. I expect 5-7 of rain here, maybe more along the escarpment

FWIW GFS is a little north/west this run compared to the previous few. Landfall north of Port Charlotte and moves close to Tampa just inland

What an odd track

This run does get it off the Atlantic Coast near JAX and it a little faster than last night

Crawling up through central Florida

Its about 30 miles south closer to Port Charlotte

Euro is pretty similar to last nights 00Z run so far

GFS is identical to the last run almost. Crawling up the coast south of Sarasota

True but not to the extent shown with this system, it is shown moving all the way back to Charlotte not skirting up the coast.

If this keeps trending east, it could have enough time to maintain or re-strengthen a little then move back into SC

I'm sure it has happened in history, but I can never recall a storm crossing Florida from the Gulf side then turning back west into SC/GA or NC after entering the Atlantic.

Anyone got rainfall maps from the 18z Euro?

Someone in NC or VA is going to get 8" or more of rain out of this

Euro keeps pumping out 6 plus here along the escarpment. We could handle it most likely but if we get any training of cells along the Blue Ridge it could get ugly.

It's a good 20 mb stronger than 00Z

Euro is a little west and substantially stronger than 00z

Maybe not New York but if this storm stalls in the southern Appalachians, it could mean serious flooding, mudslides, etc. Pretty much all of the models have over 4 inches of rain up to 8 inches of rain for the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge in Western NC/SC into NE GA. Luckily it has been dry lately but with the SE flow leading to orographical uplift, it could get ugly fast,