OSUmetstud

There's been 2 documented cases. Looks rare so far, so that's good. Also, if you get reinfected, but the reinfection is less severe than the first time because of some acquired T-cell immunity from the first infection, that would be good news, too.

Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms.

Could be a false positive or you could have just had an asympomatic case. Given where you're from it's more likely to be a true positive than a false positive imo given the prevalence of the infection in downstate NY and the better antibody tests that are available now compared to a few months ago.

They do, but those aren't available yet in many countries. You know it is possible to be anti-lockdown/business closure while being honest about the virus is and isn't, scientifically speaking.

I'm sure that they are accurately counting deaths in India and Sub-Saharan Africa.

You are intellectually dishonest.

We've been talking about the US the whole freaking time. The IFR is ten times higher, it's twice as contagious. The US, because of it being a richer and more developed country will tend to better in counting deaths than poorer countries.

I mean wtf...

The flu number is symptomatic fatality rate, not infected fatality rate, the IFR is closer to 0.06-0.07.

The IFR is about 10 times seasonal flu and it's like twice a contagious. The flu on average kills 30K per year, we've lost at least 180K (6 times more) and possibly 250k (8 times more) and it's not done. The pelosi thing is just silly political stuff, it's not the same thing as faking death certificates or approving vaccines before they've been properly tested.

Yeah, that's because it's uncommon (not never) to be listed and influenza tests aren't done all the time, which why the CDC uses data and modeling to estimate the flu burden yearly. Do you review all US death certificates? We're testing for COVID a great deal because we're in the middle of pandemic.

Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza? Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact.

Bullshit.

as long as the final approval by the FDA goes through the proper channels and is science-based. wtf does this mean to you? The data will be released to the public. So independent scientists and people like you and I can look at the data and can make a decision. Like I said as long as the decision is clearly based on science, like there's strong evidence of efficacy and safety then yes, I will take it.

Eh, you couldn't possibly know if COVID contributed to death sooner in the end. That's something that you've decided to make political since death certificates list multiple causes. You're basing your opinions on some anecdotes and jumping to conspiracy. The system isn't obviously perfect, but if it were doing a poor job overall, the excess deaths wouldn't as high as they are...

This is a completely different issue. You completely bought that that 94% of covid-with nonsense without even bothering looking at the data. The FDA licenses vaccines, not the CDC. I don't have a problem with the CDC telling states to get ready for large-scale vaccine distribution, as long as the final approval by the FDA goes through the proper channels and is science-based.

Nice post man. It's really disappointing that people on what should be a science forum stop caring about science and think some large conspiracy is afoot.

Kinda incredible that people believe this is happening en masse or systematically when there's been 250K excess deaths since Feb and there's been 275K influenza, pneumonia, and COVID deaths over the same time frame.

How many crap storms did we miss in 1933? I know Landsea says something like 1 to 2 per year pre satellite Era but some of those big years back then it must have been even more.

The rockies one in June? Idk man.

Cedar Rapids is going to be the new Sandy.

Omar comin'

That's fair. I'm sure there's some natural variation in viral load from person to person just because of biological variations. The super spreading seems mostly venue dependent (large, indoor gatherings with poor air circulation), but there could be some people who just have a bit more virus in the upper respiratory tract than others.

Where? You made that up. Asymptomatic people and presymptomatic people have high viral loads, too. The difference in disease seems like its mostly related to a poor immune response. I agree with lowering the threshold for community surveillance. The high sensitivity stuff is best used for the hospital when a patient has obvious symptoms. We need to optimize testing to find people who are actually transmitting, not to catch people who are late in their disease course.

Yes, that's from the long tail of viral RNA that persists in people a few weeks after they have contagious virus. Were testing people outside of this window mostly. The article never suggests that these people never were contagious. By the time people have significant enough symptoms to think to get tested, weve missed most if not all of the window. People infected with the virus are most infectious from a day or two before symptoms appear till about five days after. But at the current testing rates, “you’re not going to be doing it frequently enough to have any chance of really capturing somebody in that window,” Dr. Mina added.