OSUmetstud

So it looks like to me that a stronger storm initially through the next day or so pushes the storm southwest (shear vector is out of the northeast). The after, a stronger storm should help build the WAR to the west of it. If you have a weak pos those two things don't happen.

Yeah euro is borderline tossable. It's basically not showing a TC.

It's almost an open wave the whole time though lol. That's something else entirely.

At initialization it's fine I think but given it doesn't spin up into much the whole run you might not put as much weight on it as normal. Intensity matters to track here I think.

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40 0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51 1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61 0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63 1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65 0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68 1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85 0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81 1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79 0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46 1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35 0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27 1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25 Doesn't copy well but this is the last UKMET TC guidance. I think it goes over the cape as it weakens?

The loop thing seems actually more supported in some respect. Henri gets absorbed into that weak MA trough and just sits underneath the eastern Canadian ridge. There's not much push for a proper landfall.

I meant to post this here lol. Eric seems pretty convinced. Idk. The pattern is not crazy anomalous and the storm is so far east initially.

Eric seems pretty convinced. Idk. The pattern is not crazy anomalous and the storm is so far east initially.

You seem like a really nice person dude.

I think some empathy is in order given the awful circumstances.

blatant trolling? Delete half the tread then. Good lord lol. PhineasC has double the post of anyone here and does that all the time. it seems that some accept only the "right kind" of trolling.

Calling vaccines poison is gross. Trolling over hospitalizations and deaths in the middle of a terrible pandemic that has killed 750000 Americans is gross. Free speech (which is not really relevant on a private forum) is often gross.

Its incredible to me that you would read this thread with all its toxic trolling about hospitals filling up and anti vax rhetoric from your bros and think that people who just showed up the past few days are a problem. This place is gross and has been for awhile.

This was a community mask study. They were all flimsy cloth masks. I think there should have been more of an effort to get n95s to essential workers but alas.

I think the best done mask study in terms of RCT on a population level was the Danish one imo. There was a 23% risk reduction... unfortunately they powered the study before hand to find statistical significant at 50%. The biological plausibility is all there on an individual level. Maybe it gets more washed out when people don't wear them properly and touch them too much.

Ugh I've seen that on the travel Channel. Looks gross. I still haven't tried seal here. Good luck!

Lol that was a terrible pitch

I mean that makes sense! lol

I said it's less likely, not that vaccinated people never spread it.

Iceland has had a very modest pandemic from the beginning. I have seen their last wave...but its really small in the grand scheme and has only featured a single death I believe. I would assume hospitalizations are also very low. If the Ro of Delta is indeed near 6, then you would expect a fair amount of spread with a population that's about 70-75% fully vaccinated (I think including kids matters in the R calculation). I think there has been some drop in effectiveness against delta in terms of infection, but haven't seen anything suggesting a drop in effectiveness against hospitalizations and death.

I mean in the sense that the findings were improperly communicated, and then the media fearmongered about it.

I think delta existed at that time, but it wasn't the vast majority of cases like it is now.

Ive been enjoying your Iceland pics.

That was probably unwise. First, you have to be infected to transmit, and you're less likely to get infected in the first place. Ct values being similar at an instance in time dont tell the whole story. Vaccinated people clear the infection much quicker than unvaccinated.

There's been a bunch of studies that onward transmission is reduced. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717