Tatamy

Interesting dataset off of the 12z GFS at 210 hours: 

No support in the ensembles for it.

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of nice gefs members for next week. Ukie is also flatter along with the cmc compared to the gfs.

06z GEFS also has a lot of members showing this.  The best probabilities continue to lie to the north and west.  As Walt indicated this will be primarily an I84 type event.

On 11/30/2021 at 6:12 PM, gravitylover said:

Yup, snowed for hours here and left all elevated surfaces nicely coated. 

You had to be quite high or well north and west to get any accumulation.  I passed through Bear Creek, PA on Tuesday 1931’ elevation and they had about 1” new OTG.  In the Poconos you had to be above 1000’ to see a coating.  Just goes to tell how difficult it has been to get snow on the ground so far this season.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Negative epo presses more on the gefs. Have to watch out for that for the storm near the 10th.

Fair amount of interest out there on the models today for this one especially from the city on to the north and west.  The CMC / Euro have this one along with 7 members of the GEFS.  This is by no means anything overly significant however it is something to watch.  

Steady light snow with visibility of about a mile.  35*

8 hours ago, Tatamy said:

If you want to dig around in the models the 06z Ensemble run has 3 members that dig the short wave that is progged to pass across northern NE this weekend to a much greater degree than the mean.

 

 

Not sure if anyone has looked at the 12z UKmet or the 12z Euro but both OP runs have bought into the system for Saturday hinted at by the ensembles earlier.  Three members had it at 06z and 5 had it at 12z.  The Euro has the event for next week for eastern NE as well.

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The interior always have the best shot. It is a long shot for our area but timing is key like you said.

If you want to dig around in the models the 06z Ensemble run has 3 members that dig the short wave that is progged to pass across northern NE this weekend to a much greater degree than the mean.

06z Ensemble mean is not on board with this one

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?parms=2021112906-GEFS-NE-winter-meansnacc-198-0-100

Coating on colder surfaces here as well. 0.2” is the accum.

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is alot faster compared  to the gfs and cmc for December 5th

12z GEFS snowfall mean would support the Euro idea of an inland runner for this time period.

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

December 5 time-frame is still showing up

Sure is.  240 hrs on the 12z CMC and 252 hrs on the 12z GFS.  Granted these are OP runs going out 10 days however the pattern is there.

There is a site (or used to be) that shows the expected GEFS mean snowfall total.  Does anyone have a link for it?

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. 

I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer.

It’s already here…

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thanks for posting this! I have always been fascinated with west Hampton. Sometimes it almost seems unbelievable. Almost like a mini chinook. 

It’s about cloud cover and the wind speed.  If the surface winds can decouple from the flow a few hundred feet up and go calm the bottom can drop out of the thermometer as shown.  The cloud cover piece is self explanatory.  I see similar events out here where on a cold morning lower spots (below 500 feet - approximately) can be colder than higher elevations due to being better able to decouple.

Tonight’s cold front has passed through here.  I have light rain and the temperature is down to 51.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

what an incredible year that was...even the 3 week thaw in Jan featured storm after storm.

Every Friday night it seemed to snow.  Don’t ever recall anything like that.

On the topic of snow it is snowing up in Mt.  Pocono this evening with the trough swinging through.  This is the second day in a row this has happened. This time it is actually accumulating on grassy areas.

I came across this photo of the tornado that hit the Shirley area.  

7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

NWS Upton has reported the following wind gusts this afternoon at the Mesonet sites shown below:

East Moriches 3:55pm 79 mph 

Mecox Bay 4:20pm 71 mph 

A station that I follow on WU in Cherry Grove recorded 54 mph at 3:29 pm

SE Light on Block Island just reported a wind gust to 54 mph.

NWS Upton LSR's

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N LEVITTOWN           40.73N 73.52W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR TULIP LANE IN
            LEVITTOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
427 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ISLIP TERRACE       40.74N 73.19W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN, HOUSES WITH
            TREE DAMAGE, ROADS BLOCKED BY FALLEN TREES
            SOUTH OF MONTAUK HIGHWAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
423 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SHIRLEY AIRPORT   40.82N 72.86W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON PONCHO DRIVE IN
            MASTIC. TREE ON POWERLINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E REMSENBURG-SPEONK   40.81N 72.68W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON ROAD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEVITTOWN               40.72N 73.51W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN LEVITTOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW LEVITTOWN         40.73N 73.53W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CAR ON HILLTOP ROAD IN
            LEVITTOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST ISLIP              40.72N 73.18W
11/13/2021                   SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES, TREES, AND POWER LINES DOWN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH     40.37N 73.70W
11/13/2021  M60 MPH          ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            NDBC BUOY 44065 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52
            KNOTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE BETHPAGE          40.76N 73.46W
11/13/2021                   NASSAU             NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

NWS Upton has reported the following wind gusts this afternoon at the Mesonet sites shown below:

East Moriches 3:55pm 79 mph 

Mecox Bay 4:20pm 71 mph 

Rain has changed to wet snow up in the Poconos as seen on a traffic camera near Mt. Pocono.

9 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I was only 16 but I swear all the mets on the major networks before the blizzard of 78 said it was a huge storm but was just going to graze us, the next morning was different but I remember going to bed disappointed.

I was the same age but was in the NYC area during the run up to this event.  My source of information was the Accuweather Mets on WINS.  They spoke of a strong LP system that would be diving out of Alberta and would serve to generate an intense storm along the mid Atlantic coast.  This discussion started on the Friday and Saturday before the event (Monday).  This scenario was what was being generated on the models of that time.  There seemed to be little doubt in their minds.  The Mets I am referring to are Dr. Joel Myers, Dr. Joel Sobel, and Elliott Abrams.  The only other event that I can recall that was forecasted that far in advance with that level of certainty was the Superstorm of 1993.

54 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

45* here as 5:30 this AM, fourteen degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. 

Low level inversion seems to be in place out here in eastern PA and NW NJ this morning.  Low elevation locations are currently in the low to mid 30s while most other places are well into the 40s.  This is resulting in 10 to 15 degree temperature differences across short distances.

23 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Quite a range in temperatures on Long Island. Recording stations on Weatherlink show temperatures at the Long Island Sound stations and the south shore water locations in the low to mid 40s while the middle of the Island has temps in the 20s to mid 30s. Central Park appears to be the only major city from Boston to D.C. that stayed at 40 degrees. 

Winds along the shore in most places never went down to calm to allow for radiational cooling.  I have a station on Fire Island which never had winds go below 3-4mph and that resulted in temperatures staying in the 40s all night.  Interestingly when I looked at WU there were stations almost within walking distance of the Great South Bay that did go calm and drop off to freezing.