Tatamy

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

8:00 a.m. - 37 degrees with light to moderate rain.

8:20 a.m. - 33 degrees with sleet and rain mixed.

8:30 a.m. - 32 degrees light to moderate snow

9:00 a.m. - 29 degrees with light to moderate snow.

Accumulating on everything but pavement and concrete but just starting to stick on those surfaces now.  Winds gusty!

Big difference in conditions from where you are at elevation as compared to those on I80 to your south.

Heavy snow 1/4 mile visibility.

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The changeover seems faster than expected no?

Actually for the time being it does not appear that the changeover line is proceeding any further east (as seen on traffic cams).  It still runs from about Jugtown Mtn along I78 to the area where 206 connects with I80.

Moderate snow 32*

Snow in NJ as Far East as Rte 206 along I80 and Pattenburg (exit12) along I78.

Steady snow / 34 degrees.  Already sticking to non paved surfaces.  This was a direct flip from rain to snow with barely any sleet.  The HRRR had the changeover from yesterday at 8:00 AM today and was spot on.

Rain mixed with snow.  36 degrees.

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Has anyone seen 6 z Euro.

Similar to 0z.

Heavy snow is coming down just west of Allentown.  Visibility’s along I78 as shown on traffic cameras is under 1/2 mile with moderate to heavy snow.

Temperature is at 40 out here with light rain.  Winds are starting to pick up as the cold air advection commences.

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's what my NWS is saying. 5-8. What are your thoughts for my area? At Canistear Reservoir in NE Sussex County NJ? Any chance of an upside, or will storm be moving to quick?

I would go with the NWS numbers.  The 0z models that I have seen so far are not really any higher than previous runs.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks better than 12z for many areas

Places to the N and W of I287 are now expecting up to 6-9” with the 18z run.

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well since we are north of Philly we should get to freezing well before them

 

Are you up in your place in the Poconos this weekend?

There have been comments made about the snow amounts being provided by the RGEM (RDPS).   One of the Mets on the board- SnowGoose - provided an explanation this morning on this thread regarding this.  It has to do with the Synoptics playing out with this storm and how the model handles it.  

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Here is the map and here's is what I'm talking about lol

The gradient will be sharp however it may not be quite that sharp.  This may be related to how the algorithm used by the website uses the output provided by the model.

18 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What's up with the laser straight line snow amounts on the east side of that?  Never seen snow amounts with such a sharp straight edge

There is going to be a fairly sharp gradient between those areas that get the heavy snow and those that don’t.  This is something that is actually more common than you might think.  In this case that gradient looks to set up along I287.  It might not be quite as sharp as the output shown on the clown map.

Just now, Tatamy said:

Mt. Holly has me under a WSW and a wind advisory for tomorrow so I guess they can.  I am actually wondering if a short fused blizzard warning gets issued tomorrow for those N and W areas that are getting the heavy snows.  The winds will be strong enough however the question is will the required visibility parameters be met (1/4 mile or less for 3 hours).  With those winds you will get significant blowing and drifting and that could trigger it.

Note that there is no longer a blizzard watch.  If Parameters are met then the WSW goes straight to a blizzard warning.

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

You can't issue a wind advisory and a winter weather advisory you do 1 or the other

Mt. Holly has me under a WSW and a wind advisory for tomorrow so I guess they can.  I am actually wondering if a short fused blizzard warning gets issued tomorrow for those N and W areas that are getting the heavy snows.  The winds will be strong enough however the question is will the required visibility parameters be met (1/4 mile or less for 3 hours).  With those winds you will get significant blowing and drifting and that could trigger it.

Mt. Holly upgrades Sussex and Warren and parts of eastern PA to a WSW.  The remainder of NJ that is N and W of I95 gets a WWA.  Wind advisories also issued.

16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

My gut tells me between 9 and 10am.. Roads will ice up quickly with temps crashing as the snow starts.

That’s probably a good time estimate.  I am anticipating the changeover about 8 AM out where I am in Bethlehem, PA.  One thing that I do not feel is being emphasized enough will be the strong winds which will result in blowing and drifting of the snow especially to the N and W of NYC.  Winds could reach 30-40 mph in gusts and this will have major impacts on travel in those areas.

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

12z HRRR has a nice area of 4-8”

 

With the 12z run the HRRR has 4-8” anywhere along and to the N and W of I95.

As modeled the 12z NAM suite would result in near blizzard conditions for places along and to the N and W of I287 in NW NJ and SE NY.  The transition from rain to wind blown heavy snow would take place Saturday morning in those areas.

18z GEFS increases the chance of 4” or more for the Saturday storm in NW NJ from 15% to 65%.  It’s interesting how the ensemble mean moved east while the OP moved back to the NW with this run.