Tatamy

Rain has changed to wet snow up in the Poconos as seen on a traffic camera near Mt. Pocono.

9 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I was only 16 but I swear all the mets on the major networks before the blizzard of 78 said it was a huge storm but was just going to graze us, the next morning was different but I remember going to bed disappointed.

I was the same age but was in the NYC area during the run up to this event.  My source of information was the Accuweather Mets on WINS.  They spoke of a strong LP system that would be diving out of Alberta and would serve to generate an intense storm along the mid Atlantic coast.  This discussion started on the Friday and Saturday before the event (Monday).  This scenario was what was being generated on the models of that time.  There seemed to be little doubt in their minds.  The Mets I am referring to are Dr. Joel Myers, Dr. Joel Sobel, and Elliott Abrams.  The only other event that I can recall that was forecasted that far in advance with that level of certainty was the Superstorm of 1993.

54 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

45* here as 5:30 this AM, fourteen degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. 

Low level inversion seems to be in place out here in eastern PA and NW NJ this morning.  Low elevation locations are currently in the low to mid 30s while most other places are well into the 40s.  This is resulting in 10 to 15 degree temperature differences across short distances.

23 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Quite a range in temperatures on Long Island. Recording stations on Weatherlink show temperatures at the Long Island Sound stations and the south shore water locations in the low to mid 40s while the middle of the Island has temps in the 20s to mid 30s. Central Park appears to be the only major city from Boston to D.C. that stayed at 40 degrees. 

Winds along the shore in most places never went down to calm to allow for radiational cooling.  I have a station on Fire Island which never had winds go below 3-4mph and that resulted in temperatures staying in the 40s all night.  Interestingly when I looked at WU there were stations almost within walking distance of the Great South Bay that did go calm and drop off to freezing.

Bottomed out at 26 out here.

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah, and I don't think the temp even got below freezing right where I am. When I went to bed at 1am, I looked at weather stations around the area and the temps mostly ranged from 33 to 37. I was at 37 here. Obviously the ones that were down to 33 already at 1am went below freezing, but the ones that were still 37 might not have reached freezing. It probably got down to about 33 here which would explain why my plants were barely touched. It'll be interesting to see if they can survive again tonight and tomorrow night. It might be a little bit colder.

 

And of course when we talk growing season, we're talking about the more sensitive plants. I have more hardy things out there like lettuce, broccoli and raspberries. It takes a hard freeze to damage those plants. They will likely continue for a few more weeks. Sometimes they go into very late November.

My lettuce and parsley are still going strong.  Everything else has been frosted out over the past two nights.  I had some impatiens in pots that I had placed next to my foundation in order to see if I could keep them going.  Last night’s frost got them.  I have found that 24 degrees is the cutoff for what parsley will survive down to.  I any case my lettuce and parsley are in flats that I can bring in if it gets that cold.

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm going to reclassify the tristate area as part of the southeast since we can't see these amazing northern lights displays that people in new england have been seeing

 

You would probably see the lights from your place in the Poconos.

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

32.

Low here is 27 this morning.  Temps down to between 20 and 25 up near your place.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

What were you yesterday morning?

32.

28 out here.

32 out here.  Growing season is done.

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

FYI I do not consider the 60-70 mph gusts reported at Baiting Hollow and Stony Brook out in central Suffolk County, LI to be representative.  The Stony Brook site anemometer is ~70 feet above ground.     I believe Baiting Hollow is on a ~75 foot bluff right on LI Sound. 

In my experience, both stations tend to run >25% higher than any nearby stations in past events.

Compare current sustained winds at both sites to surrounding sites - generally 2x the land stations, even those right along the coast.

 

How about the 68 mph out at Fire Island Pines?

Recent gust to 68 mph at Fire Island Pines.

Block Island has two stations on WU currently reporting wind gusts to 69 mph.  The highest gusts there have been to 77 mph.  These are the stations at the Water Tower and at Southeast Light.

Just checked some stations along Fire Island.  It seems that the winds have gone calm or nearly calm and the pressure has leveled off/bottomed out.  This is the case at a number of locations that I have looked at ranging from Ocean Beach on east.

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

If we don’t get any wind speaking from the nyc metro area it’s gonna be a pretty meh event 

There is wind in the NYC metro area.  It’s along immediate coastal areas where the models have been forecasting it to be.  Later on could be a much different story.

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

West of the Hudson 20-30MPH with a few gusts over 40MPH. Hudson river to the Suffolk County line 30-40MPH with a few gusts over 50MPH. Highest potential is Suffolk, especially the North shore for sustained over 40MPH with gusts 60+.

Recent gusts along Fire Island and Gilgo Beach already up to 40 and 44 mph (Davis network).

Storm total 1.56” so far.

0z NAM and 3K NAM has me getting 5-6” with this event.

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we missed out on a inch already as storms passed to the west of the city..

Not quite.  I am at 0.45” so far with the showers and storms over eastern PA.  I figure to be near an inch by 1-2 am.

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This.   I don't think the winds would mix down to the max potential once the heavy rains are done-by the time the wind field gets here alot of the  heavy rain is largely done.   So we'd have winds but maybe 50% of what the models are showing.

There is no question that the departure of the heavy rains is going to effect the ability of the stronger winds to mix down.  That’s a given.  When the first round of heavier echoes went through my area earlier I gusted to over 20 mph. Now it’s back to almost calm with the lighter rain that I am seeing now.

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

RIP LI power if the HRRR verifies

The Euro has been showing this potential since yesterday at least.  The question is whether these winds mix down over land vs the coastal waters as modeled.  SLP won’t be deepening as it retrogrades to the west and SW over the coastal areas.  It will have leveled off in intensity as it makes this motion and would tend to help spare land areas.  Models that bring the center of SLP closer to the NY region have been relatively consistent with the idea of the strongest winds mixing down over the coastal waters.  You won’t have to go far to find these winds as they would rake areas including LI Sound and the Great South Bay.

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

So nobody is going to talk about 0z HRRR winds?

Let’s see what the other overnight mesos put out.

2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

0.34” so far with the first round of 35 dbz echos as they moved through the Allentown/Bethlehem area. 

Rain with thunder and lightning as the first rain band moves up from the south.