powderfreak

Yeah there’s a long way to go. The max snow zone could still be Dendrite area (ICON was CNE), or it could be in Montreal (GFS). Icing could still be over Dendrite or it could be over Tolland. So much time.

Im not gonna lie, it’s pretty impressive the model can pick out those localized high icing areas. Fits climo with NE slope of ORH Hills and then east slope cold pockets of the Berkshires for significant icing.

ORH Grid failure.

That was the best case scenario run, never really shuts off between the two waves. Those SE ticks are really helping as that was looking to be up in the St Lawrence. We have some decent wiggle room for some more SE ticks too.

Just destroyed! Best Euro run yet.

Yeah I think JSpin and I have spitballed this many times, but sort of settled on +3 to +4 up here as where we can still be above normal snow at those temps. But even we see below normal snow at +7. Its just hard to build a pack at those departures, despite having snow on the ground the whole month, it’s rotted in that 4-8” range for a long time under 1000ft.

The pattern has been so incredibly hostile towards snow, when you look at it all together, it’s not just bad luck it hasn’t snowed. It’s a bad pattern. Cant run these departures for 45 days and expect much winter. +2 to +3 can be worked with but +7 to +9?

The bolded is spot on, yet it gets ignored for some reason when models show wintry weather at day 6/7. It’s not that the models have been that bad, it’s like burying your head in sand WRT the larger picture and think “this one has a chance!” Its like in a summer pattern where we know the teleconnections aren’t there for big heat yet the Day 7-10 keeps pumping 90-100F into SNE. Then about day 4 it becomes 85-90F at the torch spots and 80-85F everywhere else and those 103s barely become 89F. I mean we just had a January average +7 across the board. And February isn’t looking much colder. That’s a hostile pattern for snow.

Man what a shellacking from that Canadian guidance. Best run yet from the ski areas here over towards Sugarloaf area.

Straight giggity on that run. Not even done at 90 hours... solid foot there.

The latest EPS continues to show 0.75-1.0" of moisture across Northern Vermont. If we can remain mostly frozen, it will be a good addition to the snowpack I expect mixed precip but would love to avoid plain rain.

That seems to be a popular opinion, so I could very well be wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time.

I believe he likes warmer weather.... he's trolling the same as some of us do in the summer who enjoy cooler/lower humidity weather. It's weird but we as a forum were bound to find someone who doesn't care for cold and snow. Forky is another one and everyone calls him a troll. But I guess it would be extremely difficult to post on this board in the winter in the winter without trolling if you aren't extremely pro-snow.

That is absolutely insane. What a run. What was the average before that?

EURO gives him his ice storm with a good half inch of ZR.

What have they/we missed though? Like missed as in we shouldn't even be entertaining thoughts of wintry weather and the models should never even show those day 5 solutions? It's a winter with a mean western trough and good southeast ridging. Occasionally we get a some confluence to the north that helps New England but by and far it's not a good overall pattern for deep winter in the east.

I really think there’s a correlation to seasonal snowfall and people’s opinion of how the models are doing. The models weren’t great in 2015 with a lot of late changes (favorable to E.NE) and grossly under-estimated a couple of those storms... but no one was complaining about them then. The problem right now is folks are grasping onto low probability day 5 progs and it just builds into the frustration. The models are the same tools we’ve been using for years. We’ve all shoveled an enormous amount of Day 5 snowfall over the past 5 years. There were like 2-3 years there where I’d be in the jackpot at day 5 only to see another 12+ hit in SNE at game time. I thought the models were terrible then, ha. When mythical snow that hasn’t fallen gets taken away, we blame the models.

Yeah that’s my view. Take our chances with SWFE pattern and gradient nearby. May be messy at times but should be net gain in those events. And yeah, would just be bad luck if it fails. Of course we’d feel better about that type of pattern than the southern crew, and the Mid-Atlantic to NYC crew might just be out of it unless we get some wholesale changes.

Came about a half a county south of 12z on the snow maps with the gradient.

Running out that EPS run, it looked pretty damn active and snowy for New England as the gradient looked to be situated in the NYC area. No shortage of waves moving through that flow either.

Looked a bit further NW with the Friday wave than the EURO op. Got a mix just north of here then back to snow. Cut snowfall by about 1" everywhere in New England on the mean. Real nice follow up wave at Day 6-7 for SNE lol.

We are evolving as weenies. Its like a bunch of us started in our teens as gung-ho winter over everything... and now 10-15 years later it’s like hey, maybe it doesn’t have to be 13F all the time ha.

Ha, Brian’s older than me I think? Maybe by a couple years? I know I’m a few behind Will and Scooter. I mean I’m talking cold though. Like dry highs in the single digits and lows below zero which is what mid winter can be like for weeks on end. I just think running errands, skiing, being outside, it’s so much nicer at 35F.

They aren’t though. Folks are just latching on to the scenarios they want and then get disappointed. Like I’m not going to say they are terrible because two runs of the GFS gave me 2 feet at day 5. You have to throw out the outliers. When was the last time the NYC suburbs saw a significant icestorm? You’d have to see 3 days of runs like that to even entertain that idea.

Back in it up here. Good trend.