powderfreak

I thought you were lower earlier today? I don’t remember you thinking 4-8”?

Ahhh ok thanks...yeah I was just thinking your area could get in on it too. Almost like convergence along a stationary front before the approaching system turns it into a warm front lifting north.

Oh I definitely wouldn’t forecast it... but I do think these SWFE have them often. It could be in NCT instead but you often get that initial fronto band that’s running W-E and sort of stationary for a couple hours before the real isentropic lift moves in and then it goes classic SWFE with precip moving SW to NE.

Yeah definitely could be. There have been runs over the past couple days with a finger of fronto at a lower latitude before the mid levels start warming. Snow Goose has been talking about it too but more for his NYC area....that someone south could conceivably see a narrow axis of more snow than a latitude above them. Just discussing possibilities. Depends on when the real mid level push of the warm nose comes.

I am very confused. That is correct.

Widespread areas of darkness now.

I honestly have no idea what you are talking about or referencing. What short range over mid-range? Stop looking at the Euro and go with the HRRR type advice?

I’ve been noticing on the ICON it’s had a weenie band of snow on the south coast the past few runs, then a gap before getting to the main band. You wonder if S.CT runs off a quick 3-4” before the mid level warmth starts to accelerate north before hitting another wall near the Pike?

You mean the posters from CT, one from MA, one from NH and one from ME? Should I add one from VT to round out most of New England ?

Fair point. It still may not snow much in the RT 2 corridor. We don’t know for sure.

Yeah, the thermals are always garbage, like it posted last night northerly winds to the Sound and it tried to warm it to 40F in CT. But inside of 48 hours the overall synoptic revolution of heaviest snow in RT 2 to SVT/SNH was definitely congrats GFS. I do agree that 3-4 days ago the GFS was too amped for sure. Hard to really quantify it. The Euro just had some hiccup suppressed runs...but then again so did GGEM and ICON etc...it was NCEP vs the world there for a bit with getting measurable snow up to Dendrite.

This was just 3 runs ago. Euro was almost a non-event north of the Pike. GFS was significantly more robust and again, we always toss GFS thermals but in terms of lift and moisture it destroyed the EURO inside of 48 hours.

What? Spin city. The EURO last night at 18z had like a non-event in the RT 2 corridor. It had like Jack shit for moisture and lift north of the Pike. It was pretty terrible. Don’t make me post the progs. The Ensembles were much further north with lift and moisture throughout.

I think the GFS thermals don’t help it’s case but synoptically it’s been very consistent with region-wide precip, none of this deep suppression stuff. There were runs of the EURO/GGEM/ICON in the last 24-30 hours that seemed to struggle to get deeper moisture and lift into RT 2 area.

In 3 runs the Euro went from partly sunny up here to about 0.25” QPF with this system. Not overly impressive showing by that model so far. The GFS seems to be the most consistent in the overall synoptic evolution, thermal profiles aside for SNE.

Bread and butter on Wednesday evening. This is obscene at BTV during rush hour. Snow growth smack in some insane lift as that arctic shortwave moves through...that has another evening of absolute mayhem on I-89 written all over it.

We’ll probably get similar snow totals to places south but on half the QPF in that Euro run....mid level lift sort of rots over NNE. All the models have the DGZ up in the 700-550mb zone up here and that’s where the best mid-level lift is too.

lol Kuchie Koo gone wild in NNE between the first event and the arctic shortwave.

That was a great look on the Euro for high ratio snows in NNE. Might need to break out the Kuchie maps.

Man, that arctic shortwave Wednesday has some punch to it. Hard not to envision widespread squalls as that thing barrels through for the evening commute. GFS NAM

EURO and GFS are both very dynamic up here. Spitting out some decent QPF too. Snow growth looks like it should get very good with that, probably why those Kuchie techniques are printing 6-12" in the mountains, lol. I really like that look for a dynamic fun late afternoon and evening on Wednesday.

What a weenie Kuchie on that 00z GFS over the next 4 days, lol. 20 or 30:1 ratios. Ride a horse, save a Euro.

A light resurfacing. This should groom in nicely.

Persistent flurry continues. At least it's white again out there. Snowfall has been nickle and dime this month with some solid thaws, but the amount of bare ground has been limited due to timely CAA snows.