powderfreak

The 18z HRRR looks nice.

Wet flakes are making it down to top of Mtn Triple at like 2600-2700ft. Accumulations are 2800-2900ft and up. I just walked it the rain line ha. Not as much fun. Dont know if this works, but a vid of it on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/p/CHD4_t1B9-A/?igshid=elxopp9x865g

It is dumping snow up here. Prob 1”/hr rates. Quick half inch down.

Precip has started as snow up here at 3,000ft.

12z EURO was decent again. Over a half inch frozen liquid.

The peaks do fine in most events to be honest... I personally like 1+ as that gets snow into town on this side usually. 0.5-0.75 usually doesn’t get much more than flurries in town and puts the snow over in Jericho and Underhill on west side. 0.75-1.25 is usually a good sweet spot for the peaks. To me most of the Froude is to determine what inhabited areas get more snow, like RT 100 corridor east side or the west slope communities. Sharply rising Froude to me also signals for cellular squally weather that can go way downstream into E.VT even.

Remember as discussed yesterday that EMA from ORH to BOS just picked up 10-13% of normal snowfall already.

Jeez.... the 4km BTV output is signaling a big event if this is the first part tomorrow. Those 850mb temps are in the sweet spot for great snow growth...most of the better UVVs are just above the ridge crests in that 850-750mb level, so I typically use -10C as a ballmark temp for the sweet spot. I've found our best events do come with 850mb temps in that low negative teens range. Monday morning into early afternoon it wants to rip 0.05"/hr water at -8C to -12C and Froude numbers are quite high indicating unblocked flow, should allow for good eastward movement of the precipitation downwind of the barrier. This model has some significant QPF for the northern Greens just through Monday evening before the Monday night/Tuesday morning event swings through. Wind direction at 290-300 degrees is right in that sweet spot too. Really nothing to complain about on this output. The sharply rising Froude number after 16z indicates more squally weather to me as depth of mixing increases. Probably becomes more cellular with graupel tomorrow afternoon before the first wave shuts down.

Dude had to "stop" next to the cars in the road to "check is route" and just inadvertently painted the cars with salt.

I'm looking for 2-3" at home and maybe 6" at the office at 1,500ft.

What a holiday vibe. Nice shot dude. Crazy for Halloween.

TT loads so damn slow on my phone... it's ok on the laptop with fast internet but yeah, it's desire to want to load every single image all at once on a 384 hour GFS can take a while. Good advice on the step mode.

Visiting winter on the Upper East Side. It is very obvious this time of year how well the east slope preserves snow...and shows how the Stowe side of Mansfield builds such a deep snowpack only seeing direct sunlight in the morning hours (coldest part of the day). The sunsets up here at like 1PM (goes into the shadows) so that it is getting zero sunlight during the warmest part of the day in the afternoon. The east side of Mansfield looked a lot more wintry than anywhere around here, much lower residual snow level too. There was coatings of snow as low as 1,800ft on the east slope while over at south facing Spruce it looked like that level was 3,000ft for any sign of winter. Avoiding afternoon sunlight does wonders for snow preservation, ha.

For sure, I don't think this will be as elevation dependent except the first wave maybe? I think 2-4"/3-6" is possible for the lower elevations surrounding the Spine and in the Spine. I full expect it to be the first widespread accumulating snow in the inhabited areas around here.

Yeah the signal is there. This isn't something that usually changes all that much like a nor'easter or synoptic event. The upslope/mountains are the lift and they don't move. 18z EURO still with the signal. And again, for Phin, the actual numbers on these models aren't necessarily correct for sure. Like MVL ASOS will not be the jackpot, the mountains will but the models smooth everything out. I bet a general rule in your area would be to take the "over" on these progs. Another thing is this is 10:1 ratio snow and 850mb gets pretty chilly, snow growth actually looks decent so could be fluffy snow, more like the Kuchie style.

That’s great man, in 40 years your kids will be telling their kids about that time they got to trick or treat in the snow in Weymouth... talk about it like it’s from a Dead Sea scroll.

That’s awesome. I have spent all afternoon on the little white spine up here lol, looking over at a very bright MWN. Looks like the Pike area from BOS to ORH was the axis with snow X-miles north and south of that too.

I think seeing is believing and the fact that BTV can see the mountains 17 miles east of their office, and the fact they live up against those mountains, brings a lot more focus to it. There’s also a decent population that lives in these areas, and the most heavily traveled highway in VT is the 89 stretch from Montpelier to Burlington... right past J.Spins house in the max upslope zone. Like they can’t ignore it.

Yeah I think you’ll do better on the upslope than models think. Can’t take them at their word, it’s more just looking for the signal. You’ve got 3-4000ft behind you to WNW it looks like... unblocked flow will just dump that snow on the Lee side (you).

From what I’m seeing the flow for upslope looks pretty uniform with height and not a ton of low level veering. It looks fairly unblocked which is better for you and I... the snow should be able to propagate downwind of the crest axis with ease.

18z NAM looks decent. Goes apeshit with that second low.

BTV AFD going all in: Through the 48-hour period total snowfall will range from a dusting to an inch below 1000 feet, 4-6" from 1000-2000 feet across the Adirondacks and central/northern VT and approaching a foot at the highest peaks.

Cold afternoon up on the shaded East Side.

It’s crazy for those SE areas that got 4-5” on a 40-inch annual average just picked up a 10-12% head start on normal snowfall... in October. If this was like one of the probability models showing the chances of reaching normal snowfall, it just lurched heavily towards that. Like a win probability on MLB when someone scores 8 runs in the first inning. No guarantee, but the win probability for winter 2020-21 just went up quite a bit.

15F