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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    Yeah that's generally the climo favored way to go. I can't remember the last storm to phase faster and earlier than models progged at Day 3. But plenty phase later than models show at Day 3.
  2. powderfreak
    Even the GEFS at 6z... just huge spread.
  3. powderfreak
    Individuals... still a ton of spread and a surprising amount of non-events mixed with some really jacked up ones.
  4. powderfreak
    EPS
  5. powderfreak
    Just a huge isothermal area of wet snow. 850mb and 925mb are just barely cold enough under the intense precip.
  6. powderfreak
    Decent changes at H5 between 00z GEFS and the 06z GEFS.
  7. powderfreak
    The EPS is pretty jacked, even some rain solutions up here along with straight whiffs. Mean is 10.6” snow down from 11.6” at 18z but on the whole similar.
  8. powderfreak
    EURO/UKMET/ICON blend for here please, ha. Actually ICON looks like it might rain here it’s so jacked up.
  9. powderfreak
    Synoptic storms do that, like a lottery system. Meso-scale storms like big lake effect or big upslope often don’t alter much in the lead up. No “phasing” to figure out. The features that make it snow are stationary, body of water or mountains. These synoptic events are always the best on the Forum.
  10. powderfreak
    Even digging into that run a bit.... those snow maps are over-done for sure on the eastern side (in this area). This air mass is really marginal. Over this way, even during intense precipitation rates the SFC temps are still sitting +1C. 925m is pretty warm all things considered. Reality says that's a BTV westward or Adirondacks bomber. Time for it to go a bit east, ha. What a thread the needle situation for someone.
  11. powderfreak
    We've been discussing it summer and fall, but worth noting how unstable the Euro is these days. If the GFS schools it at 72-90 hours again...we'll know for sure. It definitely has some issues going on that makes it hard to trust at all.
  12. powderfreak
    I noticed that too. The snow board here was 1/4” but a mix of grauple balls and flakes of varying sizes. Some big fat dendrites did help tick accumulation up but for the most part it was sub-optimal flakes. Looks like it's nearing 2" at 3,000ft and above.
  13. powderfreak
    I hope you jack and get the monkey off your back. My bar is low, just cover the grass again, lol. Messenger east shuffles always happen so I like to have something to work to get to 3”.
  14. powderfreak
    18z RGEM jacks metro-west, ha.
  15. powderfreak
    Looks like some of the 12z ensemble members that gave the Adirondacks two feet. Not that surprising... the ensemble spread was from like ROC/MSS jack to a CAR jack. Anywhere between was fair game .
  16. powderfreak
    That’s the climo favored track. Nothing personal ha.
  17. powderfreak
    Mic drop, ha.
  18. powderfreak
    Blowing and drifting will fill it in.
  19. powderfreak
    You two are like an arguing married couple on here.
  20. powderfreak
    One of the Sunday River base areas after the rain storm... yikes!
  21. powderfreak
    J.Spin has to be getting crushed by this squall. 30dbz over him right there at I-89 and the county line. That usually corresponds to 1-2"/hr rates at least, just depends on how long it lingers.
  22. powderfreak
    Pretty decent squall line just hit the mountain. Looks like a quick 1-2" so far on the snow cam.
  23. powderfreak
    84
  24. powderfreak
    Lol at the ensembles.... the individuals are all over the place. From Massena jackpot to Caribou and everything in between... along with non-events thrown in.
  25. powderfreak
    12z EPS mean.
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