powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Heh, yeah I guess that’s what I saw too. Several hours of -SN vs 40dbz of thundersnow and wind in a flash freeze.
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Yeah I still think the dynamic runs we saw earlier where a band of 30-40dbz curling through SNE would’ve been better for snow to be honest. But I get the fear of some of Dendrite gets jacked. I still think those other runs would’ve given more excitement in SNE too, but to each their own.
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Those runs had ridiculous banding for you guys though too as it exited stage right. But now it’s more of a lighter steadier snow transition instead of going rain to 1-2”/hr with thunder. But yes the jack would’ve been like Dendrites area.
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It seemed to do two fold... it would snow further north but then the dynamic strong backside had a much heavier flash-freeze blitz through SNE with thunder/lightning. But I agree for southern folks like you, Kev and Bob this is likely the better way to go.
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Where suppression depression happens in October lol. You’ll get used to it when DIT goes full weenie, it’s not a good sign.
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Yeah I’ve seen some snow grains this morning, almost like a frozen drizzle lol. Rime ice layer is real low, like 2,500ft or a bit lower. Trees really frosted up last night.
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It wasn’t clear it would take place... hating on any and all precip chances, muttering ratter winter all day long, fears galore... but all it took was a couple snowy model runs and she hatched big and beautiful.
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It’s been a stunning change lol. Stein is dead and a beautiful butterfly has emerged. All precipitation is magically no longer assumed to miss east/west/north/south.
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UKMET is full snoozer. Went from this: To this: Precip stays mostly south of RT 2. Even ALB only 0.25” QPF total.
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Interesting 00z trends.
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ICON like there... boring. Never gets going.
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Good vision. Makes sense. Residence time and max forcing in tandem.
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Early 00z ICON snow. This thing has been all over the place. Never really gets going.
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Do you think it looks more like a stationary pounding, or more like an equal opportunity partner down that way? I sort of envision just this steady slow moving band traversing WNW to ESE on the tail... like a 2-6 hour period of blitz and flash freeze where it’s 0.10-0.15”/hr in the bucket through SNE. As opposed to one location just getting wrecked for like 8 hours while others see -SN.
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At this point? Yes. I’ll throw some preliminary thoughts out to the ski community probably tomorrow... but take a mean of the EPS and GEFS, and that’s what you get. CNE max stripe. Killington area to Lakes Region to Lewiston is the early thought tonight. SNE more populated areas flash over to a widespread 2-5” (more north of ORH), coming in 1”/hr several hour blitz. Good starting point IMO.
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Dead serious though. 2-3” is the win in October. Just cover the grass in the backyard. Anyone being disappointed about that in October is off their meds.
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Yeah that has to make it much easier as long as it’s not a ton of snow... just being able to see tracks if you are even in the right neighborhood has to increase the chances of getting something.
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Just want some snow, I like Mitchy-Dendrite-You down to Hubby to be honest... but I’d sign on the dotted line for 2-3” right now and walk away lol.
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We wouldn’t hate this look. But that’s a strong low at the NYC longitude. That’s sort of what we need to see up north, stronger low by the time it’s exiting NJ.
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Yeah wasn’t that like -6C at 850mb over HFD at the start? That started as snow right on the south coast, that thread is awesome as people realize it’s snowing right down to the water.
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Yeah definitely slinked a bit south on 18z EPS, and not quite as gang-busters with the max, down from a larger 8-12” mean max. Makes sense if it was a bit weaker.
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This is the DIT that was gone all summer. You tried to pawn off all interesting weather to other areas for 6 months straight... now that it involves snow it’s like whoa whoa whoa let’s slow down and talk about this, lol...good to see Stein didn’t ruin your love for snow.
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Definitely worth considering. It’s made some huge jumps the past couple days.
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Yeah crude way to look but there’s a lot of spread in the EPS.
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There are some monster solutions in the individuals... Even some that are a bit too far north for here, they must’ve really wound up in a few of the individuals. A few have like two feet in far N.NY. That EPS run was pretty solid.
