powderfreak

You back up north early? Good choice.

I like that. Fair guess. Could go higher if it’s a full blue bomb, could also go 4-6” if it’s too wet and sloppy.

I honestly can't believe GYX doesn't have even an Advisory out for Coos County, population or not. Feels like the bust potential is there for like a heavy cake tonight.

I love the daily J.Spin-isms, getting Phin into the North Country mindset. In a year his name will change from Phin to Phish.

When the skiers and snowboarders write the AFD: "Froude numbers support blocked flow Saturday night with additional accumulations of 3-5" likely along the western slopes, then unblocked for Sunday with 2-4" on the lee side of the northern Greens. By the end of the event, elevations above 2000 feet look to get the snow we need with totals of a foot or more."

Hills gonna get a good “shot” of snow?

Probably 0.50-1.00" south of I-89/Winooski Valley.... 0.25-0.50" to the north of 89 on the front side? The NW cyclonic flow should add more to the north than the south as the event goes on. The 18z EURO was juicy. Upper slopes on the Spine should see a decent net gain in total.

That strong SE flow should bring forced parcel ascent as it hits the terrain. Some upslope cooling. I like 6-10” above 2000-2500ft in S/C VT. Snow maps are overdone spatially.

This gives me a warm fuzzy feeling... 12-hour total on Sunday for upslope. Synoptic part is likely a let down and then we let cyclonic NW flow do it’s thing. Snow growth zone is pretty deep too on Sunday, vs the much more narrow -12C to -18C layer on Saturday.

I was wondering if anyone noticed that. 18z HRRR and RGEM get a lot of snow into western SNE.

Ha no it wasn't dumb, I get what you were saying. IMO there's a stepwise gradient that often is most noticeable in 500ft jumps. Like 1000ft, 1500ft, 2000ft, etc. That 1500-2000ft zone is a snowy one for roadways and inhabitants.

I’m curious how your new house does with a more southerly wind flow, vs the NE flow in that other storm. I know you won’t be there, but should be interesting to see how wind flow going over the highest peaks may differ from coming in from the east in a very marginal air mass.

I mean it is but it’s also all relative. It just happens to be the higher end of inhabited elevations... like 2000ft will be better than 1500ft. 2,500ft would be even better, ha. It’s just that 1500-1800ft is usually like upper inhabited elevations on the whole. Down in SNE the 1,000ft level is usually talked about. Not because 1500ft wouldn’t be better but it’s sort of a relevant elevation. Like every time in Stowe I’m like wow, 1500ft did well... it turns out 2kft did even better ha. But it’s kind of a benchmark type elevation.

Everyone has roughly 5 inches OTG as an average it seems, ha. Highest is only 8" at 1,000ft near Jay Peak. Pretty crazy how uniform the snow depths are. Even only 14" at 4,000ft.

I have to imagine it might be close up in other parts of NNE here too. Not once have I gone outside this winter and been like, wow it’s cold out. Another morning here where the the temperatures at like 6am are warmer than the normal maxes for this time of year. 22F at the picnic tables this morning, normal is near 0F lol. But the snow isn’t melting, ha. So many days rotting at 20-32F.

I’ve had this discussion about the Whites with a few people, and there seems to be a thinking that the Mount Washington Observatory is more the unofficial forecast office for that zone. Their discussions and forecasts can be fairly in-depth at times for the mountains, and they issue on a regular cadence. It’s an interesting side angle to have another well renowned weather office (not NWS) covering those mountains. I think of it like out west, the NWS offices will issue watches/warnings and grids for the mountains, but they let the Avalanche Centers really take over the nitty gritty details. For example I think the Utah Avalanche Center is actually in the same office area as the SLC NWS. This is a great resource: https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/higher-summit-forecast.aspx

Yeah I guess my point was people remember the weather they experience, not what the stats or pattern show. I get Kev’s point... no real snow to show for it, pattern is meh. Just like folks saying snowbanks aren’t melting, not a warm pattern. It all boils down to sensible weather.

It's like the obscenely mild pattern, people don't believe it because of the daytime highs don't feel that warm. People recognize the weather for what they experience. A good pattern that doesn't materialize is like a torch that isn't hot in the afternoon. ORH now at 25 days straight without a negative departure. Can they do a full month without a single below normal day?

True, but I doubt they are talking Berlin and even North Conway. NH looks very similar. The vast majority of readers will experience what they said IMO. It's likely not even worth reading for the area north of the Whites to be honest.

They didn't say that for your area though as I read that. They called out COOS county as an exception. I bet after the event as modeled though that 75% of their population is without snow cover, the majority of the area... not all of the area. We'll see what the Maine/NH posters have for snow cover after this, it could just be you and Alex which fits with the AFD.

See I'll disagree, I don't really see any issue with this discussion. Seems to lay it out that to the vast majority of their snow lover population this won't be a big net gain. I think the disco lays it out pretty honestly... for the vast majority of their population it will be a net loss, with the only exception being the few folks living in Coos County like Alex and Phin. For most snow lovers who live outside the sparsely populated areas, it won't be a good event...I actually think the AFD would be misleading if it was the other way around, advertising this as a positive event for the bulk of snow lovers, ha. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ...Potential for a Moderate Impact Event This Saturday... Model guidance remains in good agreement for the first significant system in a few weeks it seems. A rapidly developing surface low on an approaching closed 500mb trough in the Ohio River valley will tap into Atlantic moisture on Saturday. IVT values are in the 90th percentile with a descent atmospheric river signature, but the signature if brief. Pattern recognition and longevity of this quick moving system most likely support a 1" widespread rainfall event on the coastal plain, with 1.5" across the southerly favored upslope areas. Most of the rain will fall in a quick 6hr burst moving from the south to north through the day. This is definitely an all rain event south of the mountains except for a brief period of snow to mix across the Lakes/Foothills Saturday morning. Overall, this will be a snowmelt storm for the majority of the area, so bare ground for mid-January looks to be the case by this weekend. The only exception will be the higher terrain of the mountains, where the snow could hang on a bit longer, but expect a changeover even here all the up to 3K feet. The only area we have to watch for a potential wet snow event would be Northern COOS county if things trend just a little cooler. Overall not a good event for snow lovers.

If the low goes west of you there's a pretty good surge of low level jet transporting moisture from way down south. If the low goes east of you, then for sure you won't have that warm conveyor belt slamming into the Whites.

Awesome! Nice work on filling in the data. Well done on that project, hats off. Yeah I'm bummed that we lost almost 4-6 weeks of data last winter after the COVID shut down. I was able to hike up there and get the end of season melt-out data but we did miss a lot during pretty much the entire month of April.

A different type of super-spreader event...

@froude do those snow depth data factor in missing data, ie on days when there’s no snow depth reported (early season had a bunch when the NOAA camera was down)? You probably could fill in some of the gaps as a baseline. I think this year the stake missed that big upslope event in early November that left 16” or so of depth. It probably wouldn’t alter the numbers all that much but I’ve always wondered how much some of the missing data days affect SDD up there. Last winter had a lot of missing data days when the camera went down in January. If myself or Andre didn’t get up to check it, the values aren’t there and don’t get added in to SDD. Then COVID closed the ski area and we missed a LOT of snow depth daily reports. Edit to say it’s still a terrible snowpack year up high so far, was purely just curious.