powderfreak

Great AFD by TABER on the Near Term: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 618 AM EST Sunday...A small pocket of clear skies has developed ahead of advancing clouds from our south and west, which has allowed temps to drop sharply this morning. SLK is crntly -8F, while BTV has been down to 11F. These temps should warm quickly this morning with advancing clouds and southerly winds. No other changes have been made to crnt fcst. Still expecting light snow to develop this aftn, before a band of heavier snow showers occurs btwn 21z-03z tonight associated with boundary/dynamics and deeper moisture. Once again favorable parameters move thru in 1 to 2 hours, but should result in a quick 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts in the trrn. Interesting day expected acrs our fa with some light snow developing by early this aftn, but noticing several parameters coming together for a brief 1 to 3 hour window of moderate to localized heavy snow this evening from the CPV eastward. First, impacts from coastal system tracking near the 40/70 benchmark will be minimal, with just some light snow spreading northward into central/southern and eastern VT btwn 17z-20z today. Meanwhile, water vapor shows potent 7h-5h s/w trof and associated modified arctic boundary acrs the Ohio Valley/central Great Lakes this morning, along with a ribbon of enhanced mid lvl moisture. These dynamics/moisture wl interact with mid/upper lvl moisture streaming northward from departing coastal system to produce a narrow axis of enhanced snowfall this evening mainly from the eastern CPV into most of VT. In addition, with sharpening thermal gradient, creates a developing area of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing btwn 21-03z from west to east acrs this region, while llvl convergence is maximized from south winds in the CPV and developing west/northwest winds with approaching boundary. A check on soundings show a small 1 to 2 hour window of strong uvv`s, good deep moisture in a relatively large DGZ, so we should experience high snowfall ratios. The system is quick mover with well established dry slot developing btwn 03-06z acrs entire fa, and expect lingering/leftover upslope snow showers to decrease in areal coverage by 06z. Bottom line expect a 1 to 2 hour window of 1/2sm sfc vis with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inch per hours btwn 21z-03z this evening from the CPV into most of VT. Have noted SREF 1 hour snowfall ensemble mean of 0.5 to 0.75 acrs the eastern CPV with isolated amounts near 1.0 over the central/northern mtns of VT around 00z this evening. The window of favorable dynamics and moisture is short, so accumulations generally 1 to 3 inches with localized 4 to 5 inches in the mountains from Killington Peak to Mt Allen to Mansfield to Jay Peak.

HRRR says we get another healthy round of it this evening again. And the 00z Euro had 5 different events in the next 10 days. Active pattern for sure. Here’s this evening’s HRRR total water.

Widespread light snow, heavy at times though in S/SE New England.

Only 24 hours out for the most part.

Stowe Village is looking pretty sweet these days. Classic New England village, tidy, white steeple church...and while the snowpack isn't the deepest (I've got 18" on the ground), but it is just mushroom capped on everything. Looks just like it does on vacations to Park City, Utah or Steamboat, Colorado. Snow stacked up without any indication there's ever a breath of wind, ha. Plenty of bread and butter.

Some great turning conditions out there after 8" in 24 hours at the High Road Stake. 2" yesterday through 4pm and then another 6" overnight.

Good grief, lol. What a caked shot dude. The Northern Greens are just plastered.

Love where you sit on this one Ginxy. Fronto band all the way.

Haven’t had time to look, can you share some of the banding progs you see? They usually end up a bit NW.

HRRR extended version looks good tomorrow for some precip on the Spine.

It is dumping up here now. Bread and Butter on the lake effect WSW flow.

Ended up with 4.5" between the two rounds yesterday. Good mini-event.

Still snowing steadily and radar regenerating to the SW. Probably 3”+ this evening so far.

2.5” in this squall? Still snowing steadily but about to taper off. Just over 4" on the day in two distinct waves.

Those count though.

Pouring snow. ~1.5" on the elevated small table I measure on about 15-20 minutes ago. Just got inside with the dog, covered in snow. Likely around 2" in this burst so far, maybe hit 4" on the day total between two rounds?

I think it looks pretty snowy going forward, everywhere. Equal chances but fast flow and parade of short waves. Could be a dude, but with a widespread snowpack in New England, even light snow events gather some enthusiasm.

Someone is going to get into mid-level goodies... the ol’ surprised how hard it’s snowing despite modeled QPF. I’m a veteran there. Somewhere on the NW side is a fluffy surprise... maybe even widespread. Kev and the Pike region is how I often feel. You get a certain couple models jacked big but can’t truly trust it. Just hope. Could be 3-4” or 8-12” straddling that modeled impact line.

@bwt3650 and Jay is going to get crushed. They are going to time this with the beginning of a long fetch WSW flow band off Lake Ontario. I feel pretty good about that area near/on the International border getting crushed next 24 hours.

I think you'll do quite well. I'm hoping I can keep up .

Red Sled and Major Jones that feed into Tres Amigos... a personal favorite. There are some secret spots tucked in there that photograph well, ha.

It just started snowing pretty good with a quick fresh dusting. Good flakes mixed with graupel/rimed, showing some convective properties. Had 2.0" for the measurement at 1,500ft and 1.7" down at 750ft from today's warm air advection band. Drooling over this radar for some heavy bursts. Should be a fun couple hours as this axis moves through.

Yeah that’s the one. What was different, just curious? I do remember like an obscene band just pummeling areas in CT and ENE for a short duration wallop. It was that system, last few days in January and the third biggie. I thought that was a quick hitting southern stream? Or was it a Miller B? I pictured that when seeing the 18z 3km NAM, lol. When 1-hr QPF is like 0.25-50” and it’s snowing 4”/hr.

What was that system in later January 2011? I seem to remember an over-performer in about that same axis... quick hitting but still left like 8-15” in a very short period of time. Jackpot like ECT to SE MA?

Models show a good burst this evening in NVT. Seeing moisture build to the west, someone should grab another 2-3”. Models have sort of a training SW flow.