powderfreak

That’s awesome. 1.5” so far up here from the last 90 minutes or so. Hoping for 3” ha.

1.5” at home. Almost seems like more here than base of mountain.

J.Spin getting crushed now.

That ramped up fast. 30dbz over town.

Just started dumping huge flakes. A quick quarter to half inch from the size of the flakes.

What a time to be alive.

Ahhh ok. I think we are talking past each other. The only reason those higher res models showed the potential is because they were way too wet, but in this case because of the high ratios it looks like it's working out. The HREF looks like it must operate on some other algorithm instead of 10:1 snowfall... because the QPF looks more like the Global model QPF... but it has higher ratio snowfall. Interesting, I thought that would default to 10:1. Anyway, not to clutter up the thread with this. Basically anytime ratios are 20:1 or higher you'll get a positive bust. That band is still incredible.

The only reason you liked the HREF and NAM is because they had higher snowfall maps further inland. The EURO H7 track doesn't look bad for banding where you are discussing. The globals don't look nearly as bad as you seem to say. I'm going back through the past 5 runs of everything. We'll see in the post-mortem but I really think you are just thrown off by the snow/qpf maps

Awesome. So you get a SNINCR 1 for anything over 0.5"? For some reason I thought you had to get to 1" or more to get that. And 2" or more to get the 2, etc. I just saw the depth go from 6 to 7 and then 7 to 8.

BDL has to have more than that, right? They've had at least a couple hours reported of SNICR 1.

That is just filthy to have 35-40dbz showing up on the 0.5 degree scan. That's legit, someone has to be seeing 3"/hr in that SW of BOS.

Save the QPF maps and compare tomorrow. You are experiencing what I often see on the NW flank. Get 9” on 0.30” water. Their snow maps are right for the wrong reason, but that’s hard to process for sure.

But it was dropping like 0.25” QPF per hour. That’s not even close to happening.

Nice! Looks like classic cotton candy. Makes me think the models hit the QPF just right. Probably a situation where the jacked models’ snowfall is correct but for the wrong reason, and the global model QPF is correct but snow map’s wrong because of 10:1.

Not if the ratios are 20:1 or higher like many are saying. Take the 10:1 snow maps and double them and it looks pretty good.

You guys are crushing it with the pics in this one... love it. Wonder what @Ginx snewx has, looks like he should be getting wrecked.

Yeah I’d lean a bit north of guidance in the means. Maybe that cold really presses in but plenty of times those modify a little bit.

It's about climo time of year for the furthest south of the baroclinic zone... I think we'll be snowy enough regardless to keep the snow parade going. It's moose fart season, every little ripple brings some fluff. Keeps things looking great. We were out at Ranch Camp last night here in Stowe Village and I couldn't believe how much it looked like scenes from western ski trips to like Park City or Colorado. Just mushroom caps of snow... even without a huge depth, the fluffer nutters just stack so nicely. If we can stay cold and keep adding 1-6" events and keep the ski town stoke vibe high. That 12z GFS run was serviceable for sure on the whole though. Run it out, it's still a snowy 2 weeks with no chance of a rainer. Just keep throwing a little snow on top.

I think many in SNE might disagree with that, lol. We are in the sweet spot now... have a snowpack and just need a few inches every 2-3 days. Those squally bursts lead to some fun snowy periods. Hopefully get another one this evening. Just pile up the pillows on everything.

The scary part of all the avalanche deaths out west is that many of them, like the one on Mount Washington recently, are mostly very experienced people and/or locals with a great degree of knowledge. These summaries of each death are fascinating and yet terrifying... Kurt and his partner read the avalanche forecast for that day and were very familiar with the area, having skied there for many years. They took 2 previous runs in the backcountry using the 9990 chairlift at PCMR for access. Their first and second runs were just south of Cone Head in the Owen's Line area. Both runs are about 0.6 miles to the south of the 9990 chairlift. They did not see any avalanches, cracking, collapsing, or other signs of unstable snow. For their last run in the backcountry, they rode the 9990 chairlift, exited the resort through a gate, and entered the backcountry to ascend Square Top, a peak about 0.5 miles to the north. At approximately 3 p.m., they descended a ridge known as "Square Top Sneak." Approximately 2/3 of the way down the ridge, they stopped to discuss where to go next, as marked in the photo below. Kurt wanted to descend a relatively short 37 degree slope below them, and his partner did not. His partner wanted to stay on the ridge for the final portion of his run. The pair decided that the partner would wait and watch Kurt while he descended before skiing an alternate route down the ridge and and regrouping below. The avalanche occurred just as Kurt entered the slope before he had a chance to turn downhill. He was caught, carried, and almost fully buried in the avalanche. His partner witnessed the avalanche and determined it was too dangerous to enter the avalanche path from the top of the slide. He then descended the ridge aiming to enter the avalanche path at the point where he last saw Kurt. He put climbing skins on his skis after reaching the debris, not knowing if he'd have to go uphill or downhill to reach Kurt. At 3:20 p.m., the partner called PCMR Ski Patrol and began a transceiver search. His partner assumed Kurt was downhill and soon acquired the signal from Kurt's transceiver with an indicated range of 60 meters. As he got closer to Kurt's location, he spotted part of a ski boot sticking out of the avalanche debris and began digging. Kurt was found on his right side with his head upslope buried 3-4 feet deep. The partner uncovered Kurt's face and was able to give rescue breaths. Before the partner could move Kurt to begin CPR, he had to dig much deeper because Kurt's right arm was stuck deeper in the snow attached to a ski pole with a wrist strap. The partner contacted the PCMR Ski Patrol during the process and began CPR at 3:40 p.m. The partner noted being tired before they began their descent of Square Top. Searching, digging, and performing rescue breaths/CPR for 30-45 minutes left him exhausted. PCMR Ski Patrol and the Summit County Sheriff's Office asked him to leave the scene so that they could begin recovery operations. Because much of the terrain had not avalanched, PCMR Ski Patrol and the Summit County Sheriff's Office determined that avalanche mitigation was needed to reach the accident site safely. Due to the encroaching darkness, the recovery mission was suspended until Sunday, January 31. On Sunday morning, the Department of Public Safety (DPS) and PCMR Ski Patrol conducted an avalanche mitigation mission using explosives deployed from a helicopter. Three additional large slides were released on the slope adjacent to the avalanche accident. Following this mitigation work, rescue personnel from the Summit County Sheriff's Office recovered the victim from the avalanche site. There were no obvious signs of significant trauma. The burial site. The victim's head was buried approximately 3-4 feet deep.

People have been dying at an alarming rate across the West in avalanches. The avie conditions are scary. That one just outside of Vail boundary that killed someone a day or two ago was massive. The size of that thing was terrifying, like one of those avalanches where you just have no shot at survival as soon as it breaks. Then this one killed a local skier just outside of Park City's boundary less than a week ago. Park City was forced to close their boundary gates due to too many avalanche deaths, which is extremely rare due to it accessing National Forest I believe.

I'd go 4-8" where you are too. Feel like 4" seems like a decent bet on the low end.

Great AFD by TABER on the Near Term: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 618 AM EST Sunday...A small pocket of clear skies has developed ahead of advancing clouds from our south and west, which has allowed temps to drop sharply this morning. SLK is crntly -8F, while BTV has been down to 11F. These temps should warm quickly this morning with advancing clouds and southerly winds. No other changes have been made to crnt fcst. Still expecting light snow to develop this aftn, before a band of heavier snow showers occurs btwn 21z-03z tonight associated with boundary/dynamics and deeper moisture. Once again favorable parameters move thru in 1 to 2 hours, but should result in a quick 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts in the trrn. Interesting day expected acrs our fa with some light snow developing by early this aftn, but noticing several parameters coming together for a brief 1 to 3 hour window of moderate to localized heavy snow this evening from the CPV eastward. First, impacts from coastal system tracking near the 40/70 benchmark will be minimal, with just some light snow spreading northward into central/southern and eastern VT btwn 17z-20z today. Meanwhile, water vapor shows potent 7h-5h s/w trof and associated modified arctic boundary acrs the Ohio Valley/central Great Lakes this morning, along with a ribbon of enhanced mid lvl moisture. These dynamics/moisture wl interact with mid/upper lvl moisture streaming northward from departing coastal system to produce a narrow axis of enhanced snowfall this evening mainly from the eastern CPV into most of VT. In addition, with sharpening thermal gradient, creates a developing area of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing btwn 21-03z from west to east acrs this region, while llvl convergence is maximized from south winds in the CPV and developing west/northwest winds with approaching boundary. A check on soundings show a small 1 to 2 hour window of strong uvv`s, good deep moisture in a relatively large DGZ, so we should experience high snowfall ratios. The system is quick mover with well established dry slot developing btwn 03-06z acrs entire fa, and expect lingering/leftover upslope snow showers to decrease in areal coverage by 06z. Bottom line expect a 1 to 2 hour window of 1/2sm sfc vis with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inch per hours btwn 21z-03z this evening from the CPV into most of VT. Have noted SREF 1 hour snowfall ensemble mean of 0.5 to 0.75 acrs the eastern CPV with isolated amounts near 1.0 over the central/northern mtns of VT around 00z this evening. The window of favorable dynamics and moisture is short, so accumulations generally 1 to 3 inches with localized 4 to 5 inches in the mountains from Killington Peak to Mt Allen to Mansfield to Jay Peak.

HRRR says we get another healthy round of it this evening again. And the 00z Euro had 5 different events in the next 10 days. Active pattern for sure. Here’s this evening’s HRRR total water.

Widespread light snow, heavy at times though in S/SE New England.