Nice disco from BTV on tomorrow's snow shower and accumulation potential.
Potential snowfall in the 1 to 3 inch range in most areas is
forecast. However, given the convective nature, expect large
variability across the region, with greatest chance for the
deeper snow accumulations over the Adirondacks. It appears
precipitation amounts will be enhanced due to moisture advection
associated with moderately strong west to southwest low level
trajectories off the eastern Great Lakes throughout the
afternoon and evening. The surface moisture return will be
evident with dew points surging back through the 20s to near 30
along with increasing southerly winds. These dynamics will
promote better surface convergence along and ahead of the weak
surface front. As a result, we should see widespread snow shower
activity, and where surface based CAPE develops, briefly heavy
snow showers lowering visibilities to under a mile can be
expected. The latest convective allowing model guidance is
bullish on this potential, especially across the Adirondack
region in the afternoon and potentially over northern Vermont
during the evening.
High resolution ensemble data point to scattered heavy snow
shower activity with low probabilities of snowfall accumulating
an inch in an hour`s time. Note that accumulations will be
limited by duration of this heavier snowfall. Currently looks
like snow squall activity is unlikely, but will need to keep an
eye on this potential if snow showers can organize around a low
level frontal boundary. Given favorably cold conditions and
roughly average snow ratios supporting a fairly dry snow, expect
some blowing snow.