powderfreak

Yeah you guys have that stuff building over by I-88 west of ALB… got some snow to go.

Awesome shot. The vibe changes quickly with a nice moderate snowfall this time of year.

Took the dog out for her evening walk and saw the snow depth stake showing 5” but after measuring on the elevated board it’s 4.3”. That’s the difference between measuring on grass vs flat firm surface, ha. A good, dense synoptic snowfall that is inside the forecast range expected. Should be able to add 1-2” to that overnight as flow goes NW and likely be in a 0.50-0.60” water range? Looks and feels much more like winter. Will ensure a White Christmas given the thicker synoptic density.

Something just changed… snow growth got big. First real flakes.

You keep asking this… what did I miss?

No surprises. Playing out almost exactly as though. I think it’s called AWT? The ski trails need a good shot of QPF regardless of inches of snow, ha.

That seems about the same here… 3.5-4” eyeball but man it feels like more liquid than that. I was going to guess 0.40”+ QPF and under 10:1. All small dense flakes but definitely water in there.

Good lord, what’s happening in here. Christmas trees getting lit on fire by some? Snowing hard now. 2-3” very dense inches. Lots of QPF in this. Flake size just got much better. Bulk here was 6-10pm I think so should be getting into it.

You’re on the east slope there in CVT right? Models really like that blocked SE flow into the Greens. 18z NAM family:

Steady light snow and better flakes after an hour or so of tiny flakes.

We are in agreement. 3-7” or 4-8” splitting hairs. Maybe a spot 8 or 9” Killington/Sugarbush at high elevation where they do SE blocked low level flow well. Ludlow/Okemo too.

Models haven’t changed in days it seems. Not much to talk about. If one came out congrats Montreal or congrats ORH, then it’s probably discussed. I’d say if you see something worth mentioning, drop it in. We all know we are checking them out.

Cooled off real nice since yesterday. High of 46F yesterday and sitting 28/17 now, wet-bulb in mid-20s. Nice cold air drain.

Not much to add to the 18z EURO. Event has seemed locked in, I’m not sure I’ve seen as consistent a run of QPF progs as the past two days… every run is within a tenth or two of the previous runs for like 8-10 model cycles. I still think it’s a bit over done but it’s just so consistent in the 0.5-0.75” range for a wide area every single run.

Yeah it must be about to snow in NNE lol.

Still like a general 3-7” for NNE… liked that two days ago and still like it. Maybe a lolli to 8” somewhere near Dendrite? But overall it’s been or seemed to be a pretty easy forecast north of the mix line.

That’s been my hold up… ratios. And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF. Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”.

That 12z HRRR is juicy.

I feel like BTV and GYX went a little aggressive last night but it’ll be ratio dependent IMO. Splitting hairs as a bunch of 6.2” grids trigger 6-8” maps.

That’s why 8:1 is usually a good starting point for an event where the lift is largely due to mid level warming, unless it’s extreme cold in the antecedent air mass. Decent 700mb warm front lifts north ahead of the frontal wave… might start as ok ratios but we all know these events like needles and higher density flake types.

It's insane seeing the difference between those who mix out and those who don't when it's torching aloft. Like if that barrier breaks, it's off the races. If it doesn't, it's a whole other planet. Feels like April with sunshine and warmth... reminds me of April when further southeast is locked in coastal mank at temps in the 40s while we are sunning on the Picnic Tables in t-shirts.

Yeah I don't know the climo down there as much, but the whole set-up just seems to be lower ratio snow when it's warming in the mid-levels and not overly cold to begin with. The QPF seems juiced but the dynamics don't seem to match those progs. I don't know, something about this system doesn't scream "take the over." Sort of like the 10:1 snow map 6" area really is the 4" area.

I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall). I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north. I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps. 3-7" is my call for CNE/NNE posters above RT 2. I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH. Tossing any 10" amounts. I like Dendrite's location.

30s to 60s in such a short distance is incredible. What a map there. That's a saver.

Mansfield summit sitting 47F currently. Stake depth didn't take too much of a hit today though. Sitting at 16" depth. The only thing missing from an April vibe is the lack of daylight.