powderfreak

From too many deep to sobered right up.

That’d get us going. Snowy week?

C.Lahiff crushing the AFD this afternoon. “Honing in on the main upslope event which goal posts Friday afternoon through the first half of Saturday with the bulk of it really being through sunrise Saturday. In collaboration with WPC today diagnosing the 12Z models, we`ve disregarded the latest NAM output with little run to run consistency which seems to not handle the strong downstream blocking as well as the global models are. Leaning more on the GFS/ECMWF, the close northeast proximity of the surface to mid-level circulation and moist wraparound ascent continues to favor the upslope regions of the Adirondacks and more impressively in the north-central Greens and the NE Kingdom where Froude values are near critical. Once the sun sets, we should see snow accumulations make it to the valley floor with 1-2"/hr rates across the higher terrain through the night. Additionally, gusty winds continue to look likely overnight into Saturday as cold advection aloft will maintain well-mixed conditions with the potential for gusts up to 25-35 mph. Poor travel conditions will be likely in many areas with snow and blowing snow, especially over the mountain gap roads. As far as snow totals go, there remains a high likelihood for 12-18" along the spine of the Greens from Mt. Ellen to Mansfield to Jay Peak with 6+" possible along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and eastern Addison/Chittenden/Franklin counties of Vermont as well as portions of the Northeast Kingdom. Given the jump back upward in QPF with the 12Z model cycle, collaboration with WPC and GYX leads us to hold off on any watches at this point.

That’s a lot of QPF into the peaks.

Hard to say. It's definitely still going as we have fun fluffy snow here. Transient for me, but for other areas it's been steady snowfall. Looks like it's switched more towards the Camels Hump are and south of I-89/Winooski Valley for best pulse. Those yellows are likely brief 1"/hr or higher type flakes, but residence time will be a limiting factor.

Regarding the weekend, the 18z EURO still shows some decent snows. It's definitely not as robust as it was yesterday or Sunday but the set-up is still very good. 1) Temperatures at 850mb look like the snow growth zone will be perfect right above the peaks with -12C at 850mb on Friday night. 2) Cold air advection. CAA on cyclonic flow is a main ingredient. Check. 3) The upper level lows are in a climo favored area per local research papers (northern ME near FVE). The only downfall is the lows don't go vertically stacked and the surface low tries to escape east, likely preventing a high-end event. But still a good solid period of upslope looks likely, 6-12" early guess for the ski areas? Some images... 90 hour ECMWF. 700mb winds showing cyclonic NW flow around a low that is situated right over FVE. This is fairly textbook location of H7 feature for NVT. Surface precip and 850mb temps... surface low is a bit east of where I'd like it but the upper level support should help with cyclonic moisture flow.

The first real cold air mass helps a lot. 850mb temps of -12C to -15C is right in the sweet spot for fantastic snow growth from orographic snows. I love seeing -12C at H85 as that's the key dendritic growth zone lining up just above the peaks. Hasn't been a lot of snow (up to a couple inches for the high terrain) but the flakes have been big and fluffy all day. You can tell snow growth is pretty much maxed out for the very light amount of water. The 2" at 1,500ft probably had 50:1 ratios, ha.

Propane farm problems. Can’t get the propane where it needs to go to heat them! Winter aesthetics rejoice! Or wait, did you drive up and sabotage it?!

1500ft is pretty snowy. Looked like a couple inches of fluff today.

I don’t disagree with any of this, but not sure it’s relevance in making a 4-8” call 6 days out .

And you wonder why you get disappointed, ha.

Apply that to all of humanity too lol. Cold afternoon out there. Light dusting of snow and persistent flurries.

It is damn cold. 24F at MVL right now and low 20s like you at 1500ft. First day I’m frozen walking the dog right now.

Funny you said that. I had to run to Berlin for something and the snowiest spots were Exit 9 and then again up near the Berlin Mall. Didn’t matter elevation or location, it was just like you could tell where stringer snow showers had passed through. It would change by the mile on 89.

Ha I mean it makes the most sense. Maximize the cold shot, make all the snow you can before the mild day on Thursday. Push it all out on Thur/Thur night and open Friday. Also bonus of employees get Thanksgiving with family for the most part.

Good snow shower activity going on. 1” on the hill so far, nice little pulse up.

Same here! Ha.

25F with 3 mile -SN in town… winter vibe today.

That winter was like 70" lower in seasonal snowfall at 3,000ft than even the next lowest total (2011-12) in the last 25 years. It was like a true 50% of normal snowfall which is just something we don't see up here. I want to see the 150% version with 450" not 150" (2000-2001 came close though). That's my famous Christmas Day photo of Mansfield Gondola through Smugglers Notch and across adjacent northern Greens and there isn't any white (or even ice on the cliffs) except for one sad snowmaking white stripe down 2,000 vertical feet. Only time in 65 years with not even a trace on Xmas. Just straight 0.0" depth at MMNV1 . I might have to talk to a therapist after even thinking about that winter. Need to go Google image search “snow in Weymouth, MA February 2015” now.

Just wait until you get scarred by a whole winter of that like 2015-16.

Just get those lows up near FVE and spin moisture back this way, the mountains will do the rest.

Cue up a comment in a day or two that “Scooter already canceled December…”

Had some snow showers in town earlier when I was getting our boiler serviced. Looks like 1” fell at 3,000ft but I saw nothing more than a slight trace on mulch beds at 1500ft.

The bolded is all that matters at this point. ULL in the climo favored spot. That 12z GFS was fairly textbook. H85 temps cooling to around -12C too for high ratio fluff most likely. Long way to go but those upper level features are certainly noticeable. Like J.Spin mentioned I always say, the mountains don't move so the lift is where it always is. Just need some of the larger features to line up.

Good point J. All frozen QPF is good frozen QPF. Relative to the frozen water on the ground naturally right now, a tenth or two increase would be a significant increase. Up here it still blows my mind the difference between Mount Mansfield's snow preservation with that at Spruce. Hiked Spruce today in shorts, filtered sunshine and 35-45F. No wind. Sterling work road was snowpacked and slick in the shade, but with plenty of snow free zones. Meanwhile Mansfield is consistent snow cover from a low elevation on up.