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powderfreak

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  1. powderfreak
    Yeah I'd be shocked to be honest if you didn't get double digits. 8-10" is a good starting point but I bet you can pull 12-15" at least based on the former CoCoRAHS observers measurements and this type of event with strong low level flow. Duration will be the limiting factor but should be some high precip rates for a good 8-10 hours.
  2. powderfreak
    lol. Just need to get those mid-level goodies slightly further SE on a BGM to BTV arc and we'll be in business. Just need to keep getting away from that split conveyor belts and have some big deformation band arcing from PA in NNE.
  3. powderfreak
    Yeah that’s much better. Colder SNE and gets the mid-level stuff more into BTV forecast area instead of north of Lake Ontario.
  4. powderfreak
    Been some tough model reads the past day or two… like some don’t even look at them before making statements when they are so readily available.
  5. powderfreak
    The funny thing is we all want the same thing… east, so the mid-level fun over PA and SYR can angle northeast and not up into Ontario/Quebec. I will admit I get triggered a bit by map interpretations that I think miss the larger image lol. Hopefully it actually goes southeast.
  6. powderfreak
    It’s also not SE… maybe it increased you by 3% on front end thump before rain? Minor increase in snowfall isn’t a tick SE per se when PA/upstate NY see the largest increases is what I was trying to say. I want it east too.
  7. powderfreak
    I don’t doubt it can go east and I need that primary to go east of VT to get into any mid-level lift. I mean they are talking lower than noise level in a couple percentage points in one county. Grab the tail of the wolf and get bit.
  8. powderfreak
    Lol ok one or two counties of CT went from 48% to 52%. I forget how IMBY we all are despite large increases in PA and upstate NY. I just hate poor analysis on easily read models .
  9. powderfreak
    No it’s not. It’s the same or at least increased the westward side. Upstate NY saw biggest changes. Here’s 12z.
  10. powderfreak
    18z EPS snow maps looks very similar. Continues highest probs Berkshires to SVT, and Whites into adjacent Maine.
  11. powderfreak
    Depends who you ask.
  12. powderfreak
    @PhineasCis going to get like 14” in 10-12 hours and then dry slot with that low level jet into the mountains. @kulaginmantoo. Like a wall of QPF moving in and then moving out but high precip rates while it’s there.
  13. powderfreak
    Yeah if it consolidates more east, that mid-level stuff ends up here. It’s just disjoined conveyors so in reality for most folks it’s a short duration heavy precip event on SE flow and then firehouse keeps moving northeast. Need to consolidate it to have any chance of a cold conveyor belt or mid-level snows hitting New England.
  14. powderfreak
    The dual low is rough here. 12z GFS keeps that primary trucking towards Watertown with great mid-level lift west of that… then there’s the low level jet that breaks off and follows the secondary low up the coast. Nice 7-10 split here. Be interesting to see if we can get the coastal more organized with conveyors instead of just a WCB low level blast of SE flow then dry slot.
  15. powderfreak
    Lol at 75%. I get it, people want to believe in old school stuff, even bees nests high in trees means big snow year. But call a spade a spade.
  16. powderfreak
    So of the last dozen systems to slam the Sierra one found it’s way there? Ok I guess you’re on to something.
  17. powderfreak
    Where was that when the Sierra was getting hammered and storms came in over and over in C/N California? Would’ve been great to have them exit the same latitude over here.
  18. powderfreak
    Not a bad overall look. Huge swaths of snows all the way up and down the Appalachians.
  19. powderfreak
    -12F. Daytime max temp was -1F this afternoon.
  20. powderfreak
    We had a great stretch like 2007 through 2014 of good interior storms.
  21. powderfreak
    Nice clear evening for temps to plummet.
  22. powderfreak
    Ha! Nice. Car said -9F getting home and local station has same.
  23. powderfreak
    Car said -9F pulling in at home at 6:20pm. Yikes. It was +9F In Williston leaving Best Buy. 18F difference between Champlain Valley and Stowe.
  24. powderfreak
    -24F top of the FourRunner Quad, lol.
  25. powderfreak
    Okemo/Ludlow area looked to get hit decently. 5-6” above 2,000ft there, almost all of it this evening.
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