powderfreak

I think they have 4-5” in Stowe Village and like 19” at the mountain lol. They are 5 miles away from each other.

Yeah they literally broke up the zones for upslope style events back when I was at UVM I think.

6 or 7” in a 12 hour period I think? 9” in 24 hours?

You see the 18z HRRR?

Some monster runs for the GFS and EURO. Euro looks almost like mid-level banding plus upslope. More of a synoptic look instead of pure upslope.

The 3km NAM… that’s a pretty big change on the scale of the event, ha. Just as I preach large changes are not as easy in upslope events.

You're starting to get there by liking the consistency of upslope snow (lack of model swings)... that realization is the first step. Upslope threats are fairly consistent and will snow, just a matter of how much. Whereas synoptic storms vary wildly from run to run. You start to love the consistency of certain set-ups vs. the unmanned firehose style of synoptic. I know where we sit though on the NW side of New England when it comes to coastal storms. It's like living in CT during a SWFE. Sometimes it's very snowy but you also know what climo is for those set ups. Someone else is likely going to get more and you just enjoy being included in the event .

Yup that's what had us all up north so shook. Like missing out on the all-time stuff in 2014-15 was like, ok that happens... then '15-16 followed which was by far the worst winter in modern history in the mountains of NNE but yet in a terrible pattern some good events were rolling through NYC to BOS... that's when it started to get inside our heads haha. We couldn't even get ice to form at times it seemed and then you see some random event leave 12-15" through the heart of CT and it was like wtf is going on. Did climate change just "break" climo?

Ha yeah, started as a joke and got awfully real in a hurry. That was also when Eyewall moved to Vermont and BTV went like 2 full years (!) without a 6" or greater event. Dude had more snow in Raleigh where he moved from.

I’m still in therapy from that winter. I think we had a late April overrunning event that left like 3-6” in the valley and I still remember our Mtn Ops text group wondering if it was the most snow that fell in one continuous slug of precip that winter. People wondering legitimately if 4-5” was the most snow in a single fall where they live. Of course those bad winters “attempt” to snow late.

Those NMM bastards always leaking to the east.

The GGEM will always be my long lost love. There will be one GGEM run with a monster deform band from like ALB to BTV in every coastal event.

Yeah it loves printing out big QPF when it thinks the peaks are in the cloud getting rimed up. Just inches and inches of QPF when sometimes all it means is a peak is above it's forecast cloud layer, lol.

From too many deep to sobered right up.

That’d get us going. Snowy week?

C.Lahiff crushing the AFD this afternoon. “Honing in on the main upslope event which goal posts Friday afternoon through the first half of Saturday with the bulk of it really being through sunrise Saturday. In collaboration with WPC today diagnosing the 12Z models, we`ve disregarded the latest NAM output with little run to run consistency which seems to not handle the strong downstream blocking as well as the global models are. Leaning more on the GFS/ECMWF, the close northeast proximity of the surface to mid-level circulation and moist wraparound ascent continues to favor the upslope regions of the Adirondacks and more impressively in the north-central Greens and the NE Kingdom where Froude values are near critical. Once the sun sets, we should see snow accumulations make it to the valley floor with 1-2"/hr rates across the higher terrain through the night. Additionally, gusty winds continue to look likely overnight into Saturday as cold advection aloft will maintain well-mixed conditions with the potential for gusts up to 25-35 mph. Poor travel conditions will be likely in many areas with snow and blowing snow, especially over the mountain gap roads. As far as snow totals go, there remains a high likelihood for 12-18" along the spine of the Greens from Mt. Ellen to Mansfield to Jay Peak with 6+" possible along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and eastern Addison/Chittenden/Franklin counties of Vermont as well as portions of the Northeast Kingdom. Given the jump back upward in QPF with the 12Z model cycle, collaboration with WPC and GYX leads us to hold off on any watches at this point.

That’s a lot of QPF into the peaks.

Hard to say. It's definitely still going as we have fun fluffy snow here. Transient for me, but for other areas it's been steady snowfall. Looks like it's switched more towards the Camels Hump are and south of I-89/Winooski Valley for best pulse. Those yellows are likely brief 1"/hr or higher type flakes, but residence time will be a limiting factor.

Regarding the weekend, the 18z EURO still shows some decent snows. It's definitely not as robust as it was yesterday or Sunday but the set-up is still very good. 1) Temperatures at 850mb look like the snow growth zone will be perfect right above the peaks with -12C at 850mb on Friday night. 2) Cold air advection. CAA on cyclonic flow is a main ingredient. Check. 3) The upper level lows are in a climo favored area per local research papers (northern ME near FVE). The only downfall is the lows don't go vertically stacked and the surface low tries to escape east, likely preventing a high-end event. But still a good solid period of upslope looks likely, 6-12" early guess for the ski areas? Some images... 90 hour ECMWF. 700mb winds showing cyclonic NW flow around a low that is situated right over FVE. This is fairly textbook location of H7 feature for NVT. Surface precip and 850mb temps... surface low is a bit east of where I'd like it but the upper level support should help with cyclonic moisture flow.

The first real cold air mass helps a lot. 850mb temps of -12C to -15C is right in the sweet spot for fantastic snow growth from orographic snows. I love seeing -12C at H85 as that's the key dendritic growth zone lining up just above the peaks. Hasn't been a lot of snow (up to a couple inches for the high terrain) but the flakes have been big and fluffy all day. You can tell snow growth is pretty much maxed out for the very light amount of water. The 2" at 1,500ft probably had 50:1 ratios, ha.

Propane farm problems. Can’t get the propane where it needs to go to heat them! Winter aesthetics rejoice! Or wait, did you drive up and sabotage it?!

1500ft is pretty snowy. Looked like a couple inches of fluff today.

I don’t disagree with any of this, but not sure it’s relevance in making a 4-8” call 6 days out .

And you wonder why you get disappointed, ha.

Apply that to all of humanity too lol. Cold afternoon out there. Light dusting of snow and persistent flurries.