powderfreak

It was 8F on my car when I left this morning.

8F… cold start today.

Nice, 21F here with a good breeze. Adirondacks and Whites colder on the whole so far. Should be a cold night.

The 18z EURO continues the weird highly concentrated but big QPF signal around the Spine in these parts. Crazy the QPF maps even print out a pixel or two of 0.50" water. Someone is going to get lit up very localized between Jay and Sugarbush . Too many models have showed some weirdly high QPF spots in the area that they must be seeing something.

Nice disco from BTV on tomorrow's snow shower and accumulation potential. Potential snowfall in the 1 to 3 inch range in most areas is forecast. However, given the convective nature, expect large variability across the region, with greatest chance for the deeper snow accumulations over the Adirondacks. It appears precipitation amounts will be enhanced due to moisture advection associated with moderately strong west to southwest low level trajectories off the eastern Great Lakes throughout the afternoon and evening. The surface moisture return will be evident with dew points surging back through the 20s to near 30 along with increasing southerly winds. These dynamics will promote better surface convergence along and ahead of the weak surface front. As a result, we should see widespread snow shower activity, and where surface based CAPE develops, briefly heavy snow showers lowering visibilities to under a mile can be expected. The latest convective allowing model guidance is bullish on this potential, especially across the Adirondack region in the afternoon and potentially over northern Vermont during the evening. High resolution ensemble data point to scattered heavy snow shower activity with low probabilities of snowfall accumulating an inch in an hour`s time. Note that accumulations will be limited by duration of this heavier snowfall. Currently looks like snow squall activity is unlikely, but will need to keep an eye on this potential if snow showers can organize around a low level frontal boundary. Given favorably cold conditions and roughly average snow ratios supporting a fairly dry snow, expect some blowing snow.

Something to watch tomorrow afternoon and evening… models are showing the Winooski Valley squalls. Or an axis of stronger snow showers. The EURO lights up like 0.30” QPF in 6-hours near JSpin, Bolton, Mansfield. The models definitely think something may come streaking through tomorrow late day. The NAM has a squall line with a 6” pixel literally over @J.Spin’s head.

Yeah to be honest the closest I get are the Birthday Bowls from the top of Spruce Peak at Stowe… but we need to start cutting back towards Stowe earlier and Smuggs skiers can keep rolling downhill.

Yeah had 2” at 3,200ft and a wind blown dusting of a half inch most likely if it sits still down at 1500ft. Lot of crunch and slick surfaces out there.

To be honest I have only skinned there in the past 7 years I think? It's been a while since I've ridden a lift there but it's great terrain with deep snowfall. Incredible side country, inbounds woods. The vibe is more laid back than the busier south side of the Notch.

Nice on the thunder and lightning. I haven't been paying enough attention as I didn't think that was in the offering regionally this evening.

I didn't realize how warm it got down there today. Must've felt nice to be honest without any snow on the ground to protect. Today had a raw chill today... wasn't "cold" but that damp, foggy 30-34F at the mountain just felt miserable, ha. Coldest elevation this afternoon was 1,500-2,000ft as the upper elevations warmed above the inversion.

That's not that short on vertical, ha. The funny thing about the vertical discussion, is how the East actually has some better vertical per lift ride than many of the major ski areas out west. Of course there are the Jackson Holes, Big Sky, Steamboat, Telluride, etc but many lifts out west are largely in the 800-1,500 vertical foot length. Even the big vertical mountains, it takes multiple lift rides to get that vertical. It's one of those things where you go out west and it is hard to find single lifts that do 2,000+ verts in one shot. Of course there's like Snowbird and Jackson Hole trams but it's surprising how the east coast verts compare to out west. There's a lot of yo-yo type setups of 1,000 verts per pod in like Utah and Tahoe.

Nice dude. Radar looks solid.

Was snowing pretty good here at 5am. Somewhere between 1-2” at the office now but tapered off.

Nice burst of snow this morning. About an inch so far.

Beautiful afternoon after the morning squalls. The mountain picked up 3" in the past 24 hours at the Lookout plot. Bluebird and empty. The natural base right now is in that weird zone where it's skiable for like a couple people, but certainly not deep enough to sustain any sort of "open" traffic. People would ski it to dirt within an hour or so, ha. It looks great but would be destroyed real fast.

That’s awesome. Yeah man we never had any time last year where you could just ski onto the lift and have a whole bunch of empty chairs in front of you. These past three days have been a giant sign of relief by many locals. Last year I truly think we saw midweek skiers like we’ll never see again because of circumstance.

One thing I've noticed immediately off the bat this season is that having people in work and school has made mid-week days dead again. Last year Monday and Friday were the new weekends… Wednesday was the same as a Saturday. All days seemed to be the same and busy. The past three days have been quieter than any three days all of last year. Its amazing what having people going to work and kids going to school does to midweek visitation. It feels like people actually have other things to do on certain days. I know of at least half a dozen families who lived here last winter skiing every day, working/schooling remotely who are back to physical school/work this winter.

If they can staff it, it’ll be fine. I’ve got friends over there right now, ha. I was down helping Sunapee early season. Staffing is the biggest threat right now… and then when understaffed those that are there get burnt out. It’s an employees’ market when literally every business you drive by on your way to work is also hiring.

Yeah the background staffing is real tough nationwide. I saw it in Georgia, I see it here in Stowe. Places that were open 7 days a week now do 5 days a week. Wages are as high as they ever have been and it’s not moving the needle. And you are spot on, a couple dense feet and you groom and turn the lift on.

Yeah trying to skirt the political stuff but VR operates a lot of ski areas. Most out west are on federal land which means they follow certain federal guidelines. They have places like Whistler operating on Canada’s standards. So what they’ve tried to do for ease of communication is blanket all areas under that. Might be too much but it’s incredibly hard to have different policies at every area.

I remember some Peak Resorts employees saying Wildcat doesn’t like to be told what to do… they sort of let them live up there by themselves. If people want to work in flannel lined jeans, they work in jeans or whatever. But that’s not how VR does things. That hill probably has had the hardest integration in terms of mindset out of any of the Eastern hills bought by any major company the past few years. I can think of a variety of reasons why that specific hill has been the most challenged. Maybe not one thing by itself but a variety of things that compound on top of themselves. The COVID stuff certainly doesn’t help up there.

Yeah some mountains are just better staffed than others. Do those places have vaccine requirements for staff like Wildcat? Just thinking about how that might play in that geographic area…

The labor market is horrific over there. I really feel for them. Other VR mtns are sending them staff but that’s not sustainable. I know their former GM well, he said it was an extreme challenge last winter and as we all know the labor pool is even smaller now it seems.

Nice couple inches in squalls this morning at 1500ft. Only had 0.75” at home but there’s 2-3” blowing around on the hill. Nice sunny winter afternoon.