powderfreak

My personal favorite snowstorm in my years living in VT. There’s a good correlation between fun snowstorms up here and monster sleet events down there. The correlation is almost as strong as smoking cirrus up here and monster snowstorms down there .

Widespread 8-14” IMO is the way to go for most of us in here. Might even be the same liquid as many in ENE saw in the blizzard but much lower snow ratios.

I’ll trade this snowstorm for that derecho. Let’s do it.

Increased QPF a bit up north, can't hate it.

I have no idea what to think in your area... like miles either way have a huge effect. You'll notice coal miner's burping in PA and pumping heights by a decimal point.

Maybe a tick but in the larger sense of it... BUF to BTV to BML has seen very little change on most ensembles for 3 days. The OPs have had their issues but the means seemed pretty steady, usually north of the colder Op runs. The southern end has been trimmed back for sure. In fact the earliest ones had the highest probs a bit north of here but for a time yesterday settled a bit under here. But we are all going to see it differently, being on the boundary line you see a lot more variance run to run. Sort of like E.MA in the last snowstorm, didn't matter what guidance was it was all consistent there.

The Ensembles have been pretty damn consistent for 3 days now. 12z GEFS 6"+ probabilities. BUF to BTV to BML steady as she goes.

It's going to snow in the North Country. More than 3" too. That's the level when a synoptic snow becomes notable IMO.

They are the meso-models and prone to being amped up... but it's a good look on the 00z HRRR for here to Phin before the southern low moves through. Dense snow, Gulf of Mexico connection and Atlantic inflow should lead to some QPF.

No issues there with widespread 0.75-1.25” QPF as frozen north of roughly DDH to CON to GYX. That’s a monster snow area, hundreds of miles in latitude with this event.

Hopefully it ticks south with the snow line for the RT 2 to RT 4 folks. These are the opposite of coastal storms… they like to lean east close in, these SW flow events (along a frontal boundary too) can lean north close in… especially if there’s any latent heat released down south ahead of it. The counter argument is that the flow has been progressive for years, maybe the models are slowing things down too much.

They are the standard IMO for precip collection. Manual over the tippers, though the electronic ones are solid these days.

He can probably get the thread back on track with a reference to an obscure snowstorm in the 1990s when many of us were “coming of age.” ”I knew I liked girls when during the sleeper storm of January 1992 I saw next-door-Sally struggling in the snow with her bicycle. She had a yardstick in her hand and a Stratus tied to the frame…”

That’s a great list… Atlantic City, Buffalo, and Boston all have had some great luck, while the inside of that geographic triangle has struggled snowfall wise. Not winter-wise though as temp departures have been cold (BTV almost -7 in January). Buffalo lined up for another healthy total in this next event… rare for them to get so many synoptic events out in Lake Effect land.

I love that! Might use that as I think RT 4 in VT is the sweet spot.

That’s a great run right there. Just solid snower for the entire North Country zone of RT 2 northward.

I like Rutland to Dendy and northward. ICON actually looked about my thoughts for the main snow line despite the model and it’s history. Could get some latent heat burps north too in the last 36 hours. The south push has stopped and she starts ticking back north.

Agreed. Makes perfect sense. Cold undercuts and mid-level warmth blasts north.

31F feels like t-shirt weather in the sunshine.

So torn as Boston is my favorite city… don’t know how to process this. Let’s go Red Sox.

Positive vibes only in this life.

EPS 6” snow probabilities. GEFS 6” probs. GGEM ENS 6” probs.

Figure a middle ground blend. RUT to LCI looks good for max stripe. Clown maps might oversell the gradient line. Need to watch any mid level sneaky layers. The Navy.

Amped and warm aloft is the concern. Elevation doesn’t matter if there’s a sneaky 700-800mb warm layer. The precip looks to be there given 2-3 standard deviation moisture feed. Just hope it’s a cold enough column.

Girlfriend's place at the time in the North End had over 30"... probably one of the biggest WTF wake-up mornings I've ever had. You do not expect an upslope signal to just absolutely mushroom cap downtown BTV. I didn't get home until later that day but renting a house in Jonesville/Richmond area I had upper teens like 17-18" of fluff (?) despite being along the west slope. The flow maximized it's lift a long way upstream from the terrain boundary. The ski area at Stowe only had like 9" and severe winds. That event led to the Froude Number study I believe. The one metric that tries to find out where the upslope band will reside.