powderfreak

The Ensembles have disagreed with each time the Op goes colder. There may be some brief chances for snowmaking but I bet it’s past 11/15 for anything sustained. OP 850mb anomaly… vs the Ensemble Mean.

Popes on Mopeds. Now there’s a gif or meme for GreatSnow to find.

Lol -15C 850s into Virginia. Ginxy’s cold shot. Even DIT might freeze in that type of look.

27F and frozen again. Another 40 degree drop off the 67F high temp yesterday. Like some Colorado valley weather lately with these consistent big swings.

Ha, right. I guess I was envisioning the discussions when it’s still mild and the discourse is telling Ginxy nothing changed… but it went from +10 to +2 in the means. Something definitely changes there… its just not -5 type days.

Yeah for sure, near record warmth isn’t going to sustain itself. I think going forward the board will have two things to pay attention to… first, a change will come because those heights and warmth of the first ten days of November cannot sustain itself. So we all can probably agree a change from that type of anomalous regime is coming in mid-November. The second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter. Changing from stout ridging and near record warmth possibilities, to flatter zonal flow but still a bit above normal in the means is a change, but maybe not the full “change” the forum is looking for, ha. But yeah, just averaging near normal temps the week of Thanksgiving would be a nice start.

MWN Record max of 48F today… looks like they got at least 46F? Close. Torch at all elevations.

12z GEFS want absolutely none of what the Op run was sniffing at the end of its run. Nov 15th. Fast zonal flow, not screaming excitement.

Up to 66F here. Fake cold followed by fake warmth. +5 over your high and -22 on the low.

There's been some ridiculous diurnal swings lately. Up here MVL has a 41 degree spread in the 12z to 18z period and the temp keeps ticking upward. It goes from ice baths frozen solid and very heavy frost... to like shorts and hoodie temperatures. Very big sensible temperature difference between 22F and 63F lol.

Age is a mindset.

Fake cold but very real in terms of heating costs. It's the temperature it says it is. Below freezing. While at 1,500ft and the ski area base... those multi-million dollar homes aren't paying for that heat right now at 48 degrees. They made the right investment. Go for the hills where the nights are much warmer, in all seasons. It's pretty wild how the valley bottom (living along the river bottom) sees such cold nighttime temperatures relative to the rest of the area. MVL with 30F at the time of this screen grab. Stagecoach Rd is generally around 1,000ft or higher to the west of RT 100 valley bottom. Those lowest few hundred feet "pay" for their location.

As fake as its been... the heating cost is always real. 30/27 and frozen this evening. The heat pump has been working very efficiently on these autumn nights. Saves a decent amount of money compared to firing up the propane fed boiler to heat the place. CEF at 33/32, looks to be crisp down in the CT River Valley too.

If anyone is bored... here's the 94-page OBS thread from that event. Good stuff in there. I might start to go down the rabbit hole while watching the World Series, ha. And here's the first discussion thread 48 hours prior to the event.

High of 63F and then the sun goes behind the hills and it’s immediately 43F. That was an incredibly fast loss of 20 degrees. From wearing shorts to chill in under 2 hours. It goes up 40+ degrees, and then back down just as fast. Shadows moving in are like a cold frontal passage.

All I can think of are grocery stores saying “Halloween Candy just came in today” and the date is July 5th.

22F to 63F so far… 41 degree diurnal spread and still seems to be trying to nudge higher.

You get it on a pallet or something? Freight truck just back up to your garage with a lift gate?

She got tight last night. Inversion down under 1500ft. Its wild to me it can just keep radiating like the face of the moon underneath. MVL popped 21F on a few of the 5-min readings. A 20F delta to 875mb.

22F. Its 41F on the summit. Lol.

That’s what makes this time of year interesting I guess. The staying power of low level cold air. Once that boundary layer cool air gets established (even if by radiational cooling), it’s hard to dislodge? The sun angle is very low, it just doesn’t warm up at all like it did even just weeks ago.

Ha. 36F on Mansfield as return flow occurs aloft. Definitely a “backside of the deeper cold” type of night... where the 850mb flow has switched SW with gentle WAA overtop. Instead of a 5,000ft thick cold layer last night, it might be more like 2,000ft tonight. Cold should settle in better and deeper to the east of here. Locally here and into the Adirondacks it should be shallow as the warmth laps through the terrain overhead.

It does make me think we were pretty "lucky" (?) I guess climatologically to pull off that sneaky 1-2" on the mountain back on October 8th I think it was. That got the true first accumulation on the books, with good flakes into the base area... but without that, Mansfield might have been on a more noteworthy streak deep into November looking for it's first whitening. Kind of funny it can go a month+ without seeing flakes fly again after the first event rolls through.

It looks quite mild into mid-month, for sure. Going to be a slow start to the ski season but plenty of time before Thanksgiving for things to change by the second half of the month being 2+ weeks away. It won't happen fast but hopefully after two weeks we can see distinct signs of an upcoming change.

Wow you aren't joking about not getting cold at night. That's crazy. 31F here and 30/27 at MVL already tonight. Going to be a cold one.