powderfreak

Wish they played more than once a week. 0.92” so far today.

Nice meso-low swirl on radar just went south of Montreal and is now entering N.VT by Jay Peak. Harder to see on this regional radar but the path of that swirl looked to drop a lot of water. Torrential rain in it.

Me too. Everyone gave him no shot at the start of the year and he’s like I’m Albert F*cking Pujols.

Many of us are already well pickled.

Yeah I feel like there's been more gun violence in the news... usually in the North End. City Hall Park was a place not to go even when I was at UVM back in like 2005. I've yet to see anyone shooting up heroin and even though Church Street has always been a magnet for homeless folks panning for money, it definitely has increased. Recently the city has evicted several high profile homeless "camps" north and south of the city where dozens of people would live in tents and there'd be occasional crime there (stabbings or mental illness psychotic stuff)... the city evicted the largest camp last fall. So where do they go? They end up in places like City Hall Park and other zones in the city. I mean, I'm not quite sure what they expected to happen... you had a few of these "communities" scattered about in the woods along Lake Champlain. Remove them and those people are still homeless and will just move to another area, which seems inside the core of the city now.

That first round of rain did pretty good here. 0.61" at my place. Got very lucky with a swath of embedded +RN that moved through north of BTV into Underhill, Mansfield and eastward through Stowe. North and south of that looked more like 0.15-0.35". We'll see what the next couple days bring, models generally have around 2" forecast.

Some heavy rain at times. That was a quick 0.60”+ in two hours.

66/63 dews are up. Showers already. Going to be a wet next 36-48 hours. GFS and NAM.

It’s called fake cold. Unless you are out in it. Then it’s real. The shadows overtake a valley, and the bottom drops out.

18z doubles down on the cold shot at Day 5-6. 0C 850mb down into DCA and BWI neighborhood .

54/48... dews are creeping up ahead of the heavy rain in the forecast tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday morning. Most models have a large swath of 1-3" for a good chunk of NNE. This evening while walking the dog, caught a coyote cruising the fields at dusk. Blurry photo but he wouldn't stop to let me set up a shot.

Yeah that's bonkers for a Day 6 prog. Like high temp in the lower 40s up here in the valleys and highs in the 20s on the peaks lol.

Mins…

37F and dense fog.

I love the Fairs. The melting pot of people is hard to ignore. A community gathering the Fairs date back a very long way in history. That waterway is classic VT. That is the flow of the West Branch that I live on. Rocks get cleaned during high flows, but a lot of the summer is just cold water moving very slowly. Vermont topography has that waterway in every valley throughout the state. You see this view (from a couple days ago) and you think about how the water drains... every valley flushes the hillsides. Force multiplier geography.

That definitely would sway the decision swiftly to get off the island. I was thinking of just adults trying to take care of themselves. Young kids, no thanks even in just a power outage, ha. Don’t put them in harms way.

Very enlightening climo discussion. Deep easterly flow events seem hit or miss in PVD/RI, but also never jackpots. Additionally, mid-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Low-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Developing Miller Bs are more likely to organize to the E or NE. Mid-level deformation is more likely to the west. Multiple reasons overlap. There’s a laundry list discussed here as to why the GON-PVD stretch ends up in the minimum. QPF and snow. I’d root for a deformation band right through PVD.

That makes a lot of synoptic sense too. Sometimes it’s just the slight difference between a more shredded radar and more congealed presentation as things move from one zone to another.

The weather weenie in me would stay. I’d roll that dice with how it looks. Place won’t get razed but might be a little interesting. Might be selfish but interesting weather is a strong pull.

Boom awesome, that’s the discussion detail I needed. It all makes sense. I think I was just balking at the standing wave being a climo normal pattern. Between the CCB and mid-level lift west also makes sense… you guys right on the coast are still pulling big QPF (even if low ratio) as it pivots on the coast… then the usual lighter/disjointed lift gap found in most storms between the CCB and the H6-H7 mid-level stuff. Looks like there’s a lot of reasons for GON-PVD-TAN line SE to have issues, ha. Cards stacked against them. I guess I never really looked at them as a “sinking air” on east flow type location.

What does RI downslope from on east flow? Sure every time a place gets less precipitation there was more sinking air there than other areas, I guess ties all of them together regardless of where on a map they are… but we can do better than that basic premise in trying to dissect it meteorologically. They are absolutely a lower snowfall area but for a variety of factors, mid-level dry slots, warmth punching north, proximity to warm water, etc. But does it stand out more than neighboring areas in like SE Mass I guess is what I’m struggling with meteorologically. If it’s normal climo, there should be an easy answer.

My brain is cramping trying to find the common ground of the same phenomena that affects RI and Brattleboro, VT. There are snow holes all around in most valleys, I mean I’m a precip hole relative to the mountain a few miles away. But what meteorologically would tie RI and Brattleboro together?

Yeah I was thinking I could see them getting mid-level dry slotted easier the further SE you are but that would apply to Mass too. I mean isn’t GON to PVD to TAN and SE of there the lowest snow climo in SNE? I guess I’d be curious QPF wise if there’s something long term that causes them to see less precip in coastal storms… because the discussion really comes down to QPF more than snowfall.

I’d like to see some other good examples because I think recency bias is just throwing up March 2013 and taking it as climo.

Only thing I could think of is coastal front in SE MA creating some sort of standing wave time and time again… but if they didn’t snow well in nor’easters and coastal storms, their seasonal numbers would stand out more IMO when compared with neighboring areas.