powderfreak

Some wild cold pockets out there this morning. -10s in the lowest 100ft while it’s 10 to 15 degrees colder just off the deck. This is west side of Mansfield in Underhill, VT. Got 15 degree spread between neighbors because one is slightly lower.

-11F at MVL. -10F at neighbor’s PWS. Radiators mount up. Some classic radiating that my heating bill is going to hate. It’s cold down here by the river. Whole valley is -10F to -12F but go just a couple hundred feet up and it’s near 0F. Classic cold air drain down to the river next to the golf course.

00z GFS very cold with -20s and even -30s just north of the border. Must be radiating nicely.

00z NAM looked colder than 18z EURO at 850 it seemed for 12z SAT. Guess it depends if we can radiate out.

Does this event come in with some decent squalls? && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... However, the main story will be likely snow squall activity associated with the powerful Arctic front attached to the low pressure area. The good news with this feature is that it looks to move through rapidly during the early morning hours, which should slightly dampen instability/snow intensity, but more importantly, reduce impacts to travel given limited traffic. Based on the timing, best chance for higher impacts are across northern tier of New York and far northwestern Vermont, where snow showers and squalls may arrive in the evening with better instability to work with. However, would expect an organized snow squall to traverse much if not all of our region through the night, in addition to scattered snow showers during the evening. Have gone ahead to increase PoPs to likely or categorical (60-90%) Thursday night in much of the region, considering the strong signals. Also added in snow shower, heavy at times, wording to emphasize the potential heavy snowfall rates with the snow showers. A well-defined pressure rise and fall couplet, large amounts of low level frontogenesis and accompanying instability driven by steep lapse rates. What looks to keep this from being a high-end snow squall scenario is a somewhat limited mixing depth and associated winds, and temperatures at the onset should be cold enough to prevent a flash freeze scenario. &&

Yeah Friday afternoon looks pretty rough. You’re right, if that has any dampness to it with clouds or that arctic haze, it’ll feel real bad. There’s that damp arctic cold we all know and love vs the clear cold, ha. Its going to be a shock to the body for sure. We are certainly soft from weeks and weeks of 20s and 30s.

Been crazy warm… only 1 day with sub-zero in January (this will actually count as #2 before midnight). 33/20 is the monthly Max/Min here, for +11.2 … but still averages solidly below freezing for the most part. Honestly, many up here think it’s been a good month for outdoor recreation after the first week. Heating bills are low, good snowfall, snow cover, and no truly cold days keeping folks inside. Rotting in the 20s for like a week straight at times. Can’t pull off winter at +11 in any other month than January.

For sure but it’s game on right now, we enjoy. Been a great run of near daily snows past couple weeks again. Had another 3” on this morning’s reading (snow bough blew off tree and landed in front of Stake).

It’s cold outside. Been hovering around 0F the past several hours here. Min of -1F so far. 31 20:54 Calm 7.00 Fair CLR 1 -5 75% NA NA 30.29 1027.4 31 19:54 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -1 -6 79% NA NA 30.28 1027.2 31 18:54 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 2 -5 16 1 72% NA NA 30.26 1026.4 31 17:54 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 5 -4 66% NA NA 30.26 1026.4

Digging deeper, Mansfield was +5-6F above normal on max temps but +10 on mins. Despite +7.8, the thermometer only exceeded 32F on 4 days, two of which were 33F. It was a month where temps just sat in the 20s for weeks on end at times.

Yeah for sure, people chat about the winter and outlooks all the time on the lift rides. Everyone seems to know you have to hit winter while it’s going well in New England, absolutely. Maybe it’s just this impending vibe of doom on this board that gets me too, ha. The mood is like a funeral for someone who hasn’t died yet… but for some, maybe it was never living either, ha.

+7.8 on the month at Mount Mansfield. Averages out to 27/15, still cold enough. Luckily it was during the coldest month of the year. Snow depth 41”. Average 51”. Decent depth gains of 31-inches since January 7th.

+7.8 on the month at Mount Mansfield. Averages out to 27/15, still cold enough. Luckily it was during the coldest month of the year. Snow depth 41”. Average 51”. Decent depth gains of 31-inches since January 7th.

Saturday morning is the one that’ll be next level at Stowe. Operations are usually curtailed to lower mountain lifts and/or Gondola. FourRunner Quad has shelter at Octagon at the top but I could see lower mountain lifts only and maybe Gondola as a viable option. Wind hold threshold drops greatly too… any decent breeze and lift goes on hold as no one wants to come close to any issues. The amount of risk assumed in those conditions is near zero. Wind can also trip sensors from chairs rocking, even slightly as tolerances of those sensors is extremely small. Normally that’s no problem, a lift mechanic just goes and verifies haul rope placement and it takes <10 minutes. It’s not ideal but it’s a CPS (cable positioning system) fault that lifts at most ski areas can see a few times a day in some cases. However, in that type of cold, even a 6-min stop is a problem. So if there’s a chance, lift goes on hold. Wind hold tolerance goes way down. Decisions likely made Thursday and Friday for any operational changes within the next 24 hours based on final forecasts. Personally, I’d try Friday and definitely Sunday. Saturday is out unless it’s one run for the novelty of it.

To be honest I don’t really see or hear any of that sentiment except on this forum or among highly weather savvy people. The eagerness is 100% there but aside from this forum, the worry that the season is over soon isnt there. Most are just happy it’s here and now look forward to the next 2-3 months deep into April. Many eastern skiers are eternal optimists.

Had around an inch of fluff last night in town and mountain picked up another 3”. Getting cold now.

I mean BTV has a wind chill of -45F in town, not even 3000ft higher on the summit.

High of 22F at MVL off a low of 9F. Big difference between near 50F down there and barely cracking into the 20s up here. Currently 17F at home.

Saturday is honestly a day when we think about operations and what lifts run… is it high speed with ride time less 7 minutes? Is there shelter at the top of a running lift? Do we only go to mid-Mtn? What’s the exposure for any mechanical/maintenance stops that may run 5-10 minutes and are fairly common at ski areas throughout a day if sensors or switches trip out? Open some lifts at noon when the 850s are about 10-15C warmer? It looks to come up fast Saturday from -38C to a balmy -25C lol. Theres a lot of things that can factor in and get discussed.

Mansfield probably -35F and wind chills in -50s.

Some nice light Currier and Ives the past few hours dusting things up and roads snowy. 1.0-3.0sm vis -SN but huge fluffy flakes.

God damn that’s cold.

You mean Oct-Jan. December is peak winter month when sun is lowest.

That's true, I had my dates wrong. .

You gonna end summer in August if dews first drop into the 40s? No more HHH after that?