powderfreak

Snow has picked back up. Round two moving in. It’s loud snow mixed in… not quite sleet, not quiet all snow either.

Light snow starting up with Round 2.

Agreed. Also depends if tonight's round is included in those though too. Like this is what the GFS has from 12pm today onward. I always was including the second round in the forecast but I looked at BTV ended their initial forecast this afternoon which wouldn't include this stuff. I think most of the ski areas can get another 2-4" tonight... but the northern tier busted badly last night. CoCoRAHS around Jay Peak was only 1-2" on both stations.

5.5” at home this morning and about 6” at 3,000ft. Pretty wild that BTV, Picnic Tables and Stowe Village all had about exactly the same amount from round 1. Guess that’s what 600-700mb lift does with no terrain enhancement. Depth at home back up to almost 12". I think we've got another 2-4" coming from round too. GFS and NAM have 0.25 - 0.33" QPF. I forecast 8 - 14" for the ski area by tomorrow morning and we'll get into the range.

I think we've got another 2-4" coming. I forecast 8 - 14" for the ski area by tomorrow morning and we'll get into the range.

5.5” at home this morning and about 6” at 3,000ft. Pretty wild that BTV, Picnic Tables and Stowe Village all had about exactly the same amount from round 1. Guess that’s what 600-700mb lift does with no terrain enhancement.

What a scene. That's awesome!

This feels more like winter on the forum now. Day 6 ICON runs getting looked at and refreshed.

-SN started up here.

21/8 with north wind at 10 mph. Its gotten cold this afternoon. Going to wet-bulb into the teens with precip.

What a panel.

All this futility talk… some of these runs give you half your annual average or more in the next 10 days in SNE lol.

Heaviest tonight IMO up north will be on the 700mb thermal gradient. Best mid-level fronto. Models like that CVT toward Lakes Region.

Valid expectations, it was always a 3-6/4-8” zone in these situations when I was growing up near ALB. Warren County was winter with several inches then mixed, while we were happy with an inch or two of wet white material. 00z Reggie was south of NAM.

Yeah probably a lot of sleet on that run for your Lake George area. It’s definitely too far north, no way the globals are that far off. Its a solid correction south from the 12z run. The mesos and globals will meet in the middle.

3km NAM is good up this way, the blocked SE flow and then unblocked westerly flow helps on the east slopes throughout NNE.

The strong shortwave that moved through had some instability with it. We had squalls up north… down south my sister sent me photos and videos of large hail near BGM. She’s in a suburban neighborhood at over 1,000ft, which isn’t that high out there. She caught a close flash of lightning and immediate crack of thunder on video. It almost looks like huge graupel.

It’s like Runaway said, the ceiling is high. But the floor is low.

Good point. They either go sizable or don’t go at all down there. That’s what it feels like this winter.

Like the 52” at 10:1 at IZG. Kuchie has them over 5 feet next two weeks, ha.

Yeah the plethora of 3-6” events has been very lacking this season. It’s either under 2” or over like 7”.

This from BTV seems reasonable. I think 6-10” or 7-11” is a good guess for most spots in their area. Snowfall totals are in the 7-11 inch range with potentially 11-15 inches on mountaintops.

Great squalls this evening. Spicy drive home from Waterbury. Only a half inch of paste but stuck to the tree trunks and such, amazing how wintry a half inch can look when paste.

Good stretch of high-probability snow. Amounts are unknown but the chances of any snow falling during those forecast periods is solid. Detailed Forecast Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Tuesday Snow showers likely, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 26. Windy, with a south wind 7 to 17 mph increasing to 22 to 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -8. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 31 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -9. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 26 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 11. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 16. Southeast wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 1. Windy, with a south wind 24 to 29 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Well said. That’s been the vibe most of the winter to be honest. Been an adventure of a season. Great post.