Jump to content

powderfreak

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    80,732

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    Stein seems to have morphed into a “I didn’t jackpot” type of saying now. Get an inch of rain while others get 2-3”? Stein.
  2. powderfreak
    Yeah holds it at the CT River. The far west and far east models are both merging.
  3. powderfreak
    When it’s on it’s own against a consensus, it just isn’t the same steady model it used to be. The gap has closed. It still doesn’t swing as wildly as other models on the whole. The GFS and GGEM caught on runs ago to a look with heaviest rain “back to the River.” I have taken an odd interest in this model war . Even if it doesn’t concern my weather, hoping for dry here.
  4. powderfreak
    Yeah the first part is largely west of BOS-TAN with heaviest in CT/MA through 8pm. Then another slug comes through late tomorrow evening like 9pm-12am for SE.MA. I bet it’ll be tough to not start thinking Stein in SE MA later tomorrow waiting for it to slowly come east, ha.
  5. powderfreak
    EURO folded as expected when it’s on an island by its own. Huge shift west. Congrats Tolland.
  6. powderfreak
    Nahhh, he’d be tweeting BOX to be careful and keep snow amounts down. Telling them to certainly not issue blizzard warnings back to Litchfield/Berkshire counties. Maybe hold off on issuing any winter weather headlines at all northwest of I-95 until the final model gets on board. I love when Kev bucks the trend, keeps everyone on their toes.
  7. powderfreak
    Sitting at 3000ft wondering how much rain DIT gets.
  8. powderfreak
    Yeah that’s more east of river again. ICON shifted west but was very Euro-like at 12z… moved to about the RGEM.
  9. powderfreak
    I’ll go 1-1.5” for you. Might as well draw a line for fun. I do think the widespread 2-3” is overkill except for narrow convection.
  10. powderfreak
    Tough to compare 18z runs to a previous 12z run. We’ll see what the 18z Euro does. Euro is interesting but hard to toss all the other models, no? Even in winter when it was on an island most would be leaning towards all the others. A mean of all models would be a drenching for you.
  11. powderfreak
    Both NAMs. Might be a west shift. Not sure… will need to see what Fisher thinks. Gonna jackpot Mitch and BackEdge by 00z lol.
  12. powderfreak
    It’s like a Stockholm Syndrome… don’t want their captor to let them go free. Need to have a reason to discuss “Stein” and worship it. An inch of rain is immensely boring as it removes that dialog for at least 7-10 days.
  13. powderfreak
    That is a drastic difference than everything else. That won’t help Kev move off forecasting through fear.
  14. powderfreak
    Yeah agreed. Usually that stripe means a narrower area of heavy rain training totals, amid a more general widespread rain. I like your layout... say a narrow stripe of 2-3", among a more widespread 0.75-1.25" or something. Either way, should be a nice widespread drink.
  15. powderfreak
    I can't. I give up. Can only show a horse where the water is but can't make him drink it.
  16. powderfreak
    Toss in the Hirpes too as a big shift westward. Weird all the mesos like 3km NAM, HRRR, HRDPS, etc are so big way west. Must have identical algorithms or something.
  17. powderfreak
    Are you drunk? Or I'm more and more convinced you never look at model guidance (Twitter does not count as looking at model guidance lol). GFS/GGEM/RGEM/3kNAM/HRRR all westward shifts at 12z. GFS: GGEM went west. RGEM went west.
  18. powderfreak
    3km goes 2-4” swath through heart of forum. 12z HRRR.
  19. powderfreak
    32F min.
  20. powderfreak
    Wild. Stark difference sensibly.
  21. powderfreak
    I love the green this time of year. That scene lowers the blood pressure.
  22. powderfreak
    18z EURO liked that same zone as the RGEM for the most part.
  23. powderfreak
    I mean that’s coastal climo, summer or winter so makes sense. Maybe an RGEM cut off? Blend of GFS and NAM.
  24. powderfreak
    I just want to see optimistic winter Kev interpret models in the summer. It’s just like two different people looking at the models, lol. Your summer skeptical takes are like my winter skepticism. Lean meh until solid evidence otherwise.
  25. powderfreak
    GFS looks good, lean optimistic like it’s the winter. “Big hit back to ALB” is how this would be characterized.
×
×
  • Create New...