powderfreak

Whatever it did, it seemed to work out anyway.

HERPES goes nuts over SNE at end of its run (48 hours). That would extrapolate nicely on that axis.

Yeah I could certainly see it go from heavy thump to long duration light/moderate snow, especially the trailing energy up north. Could see like 8” over 24 hours up here instead of 6-10” thump.

Looks like the upper level wave is opening up too as it moves through the Ohio Valley… some of the earlier runs had it more consolidated and closer to closed off. That probably keeps it flatter rather than amplifying.

GEFS mean actually went north from the 6z mean for snowfall. Meanwhile the EPS ticked ever so slightly south at 12z from 6z.

Yeah for sure, just busting your balls. It's just hard to truly grasp that environment up there is what I try to convey. Like despite the god awful pattern the past few weeks and occasional torches, the snowpack hasn't lost anything since January, if anything it's up a couple inches. Even seeing the massive red anomalies and huge positive departures just aren't enough to move the needle downward up there. It really takes until March/April for climo to start to try and dent that snowpack up there in a significant way.

The comment wasn’t about where climo sits though, no one says it’s a banner winter… it was about the notion of tossing in the towel and thinking things peaked in January for a location that has like a 33F average high the second week of April. That 43” is the consistency of a paved parking lot right now. No settling going to be happening so a nice launch board.

Peak was in January

Wild gradient on the ICON.

Weenie GFS run for the ski areas and snowmobile crew at 12z for next 10-12 days.

Ha, not sure on totals but I think the ski areas up here have another decent run in them. Winter is never done in mid-February in the NNE mtns. Need some of this from Alta/Brighton/Snowbird/Solitude Cottonwoods area... Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-Western Uinta Mountains- Including the cities of Alta, Brighton, Mirror Lake Highway, and Moon Lake 318 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet possible, locally up to 40 inches Upper Cottonwoods.

That one is looking better for a more widespread snow into SNE interior.

GEFS mean probabilities still decently north over EPS. Would like this to wiggle south though… we all know the shift seems more likely northbound in close-in approach.

6z EPS individuals.

Looks like a textbook SWFE, with gradient around the Pike and heaviest frozen QPF from RT 2 up towards Dendy’s latitude. Lifting focused along and just north of the strongest mid-level gradient.

How was 2007-08 down in SE Mass? That seemed like a more interior high-end winter, but got there a different way through SWFE than nor’easters.

With that said, definitely an interesting observation today from Stowe. The value pass (Epic Local) was blacked out today and despite pretty full parking lots, the FourRunner Quad was empty. The beginner lifts at Spruce were packed though, and rentals had a record day. This was midday at Saturday on President’s Weekend at the lift that usually has the line… while the beginner lifts are packed. It got me thinking the more advanced skiers and riders probably understood the conditions and had more awareness to recent weather. But also, when you are new to skiing/riding, an infrequent visitor and with friends… you are likely to not care about conditions and the conditions honestly don’t matter as much too. A groomed beginner run is a groomed beginner run.

Good one! I always forget about them. Even Bolton Valley gets pretty busy during these holiday weeks, but nothing like the major resorts… but I bet Burke is probably one of the quietest. With all that said, a place that’s quiet/empty during President’s Weekend is great for the skier but can’t be good for longevity of sustainable business. Definitely a double edged sword.

That’s a nice Euro run this week. Best GFS run in a while too for the whole run.

7F. Pretty sure you could total your car hitting a snowbank along the road up here. The consistency of granite.

If I wasn’t in the mountains, I’d go ocean. I need some interesting geography or environment to interact with my passion for weather.

My wife barely puts up with it. Barely.

The forum gets to be almost like sports team divided… like forecasting is a team sport. No matter what guidance shows, if one has already picked a side of team to be a fan of, it’s not going to move the needle. The “yeah I know it shows this but I don’t believe it” type stuff is like why even look or discuss the models? If you only believe what you want to see and disbelieve everything else, then might as well just log off and do another hobby, ha.

Crazy gradient across New England from here to there. Jealous to be honest. Biting wind in the teens while soaked snowpack turns to glare ice with a dusting blowing around on it… sort of likes the warmer temps, ha.

18F, breezy and moderate snow. METAR KMVL 171920Z AUTO 33012G21KT 1/2SM SN VV011 M07/M10