powderfreak

Ha, I never said dry. I do think we are in for a change from the past several weeks. The final outcome 10+ days away may be the same as we’ve been seeing in the end, but the long wave pattern is going to shuffle a bit. There’s several days next week that definitely won’t feel like the past 3-4 weeks. Its also literally mid-summer climo so of course it is going to get humid and hot again. We are in the middle of it.

Zero chance you are following a typhoon in the Far East moving NWward and use that in your thought process, but kudos to whoever is discussing it, lol. ”The strength of the ridge”… what ridge and where? See if I were you, instead of trying to use Typhoons or SSTs, I’d have gone to the model data and found the answer. It is there and I’m just being an ass to see if you’d dig into it a little bit . Day 10… still troughy. But by Day 14 the heights are building in from the east. So between Day 10-14 it’s starting to occur on the ensembles.

No I know you know what you’re talking about lol. Sometimes it feels like Kev hears you say something and then repeats over and over but may not actually know why… or even look at model data to see it.

Illustrate this pattern to us with a visual as you seem to see this in all model data. What’s forcing the ridge to back westward In your opinion?

Need a Superhero graphic for it. Someone mentions comfortable weather in New England, have no doubt the DOD is coming to set you straight and remind you the dew point will rise to power again!

To be honest I tend to lean more towards those that can articulate their position with data and actual models. But in today’s world data isn’t nearly as important as it used to be, so we mock charts and models .

Have to appreciate that dipping down to include Tolland in the 3.

Hasn’t rained in a couple days, but we just added 0.75” so far today. 13.91” monthly.

We’ll check against your PWS? GFS and GGEM don’t have you hitting 80F Mon-Fri next week.

Just a steady almost synoptic rain here. About a half inch so far. No sun up this way.

BOX adding some color to the observation; some personality in the AFDs isn’t the worst thing out there…

It’ll be refreshing. The HHH will be back. It’s summer in New England. The ebb and flow.

Paste bomb potential goes up in marginal environments.

Isnt that how average/climo is anyway? Or you mean with greater frequency than the background ratter-prone climo?

Ha, the saying around the NNE mountains is “I love summer, last year it was on a Tuesday.”

This will feel different and noticeable. Highs in lower 70s Sat-Tue. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent. Saturday Night And Sunday Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Sunday Night And Monday Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Monday Night And Tuesday Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.

The next time people actually get Stein conditions, they’ll remember the great TAN drought. 7+ inches in 3 weeks being Stein moves the definition a bit.

Ha, it’s true. Just soggy. Weve been lucky to miss anything more than a few hundredths over the past couple days.

Biggest temperature acclimation memory I have was Feb 2015. Felt like it had been between 10F and -35F for like weeks. I distinctly remember a day with a high of like 21F that felt like it was full-on spring. Everyone skiing and showing their faces, actual exposed skin, ha. Everyone was so happy and warm. And yet it was still only like low-20s.

Oh for sure I agree it seems more humid these days. We had A/C always just was loud and not efficient. So weighing that against comfort… it had to be real bad to put up with the loud unit… now it’s quite and efficient so the equation changes. I’m just commenting on the fact that every summer we have this period where it’s humid then dews drop to 60-62F, someone says it’s COC, you say my the goalposts have changed, etc. I’ll bet you a 4-pack we do the discussion again next summer that it gets humid or hot, then it drops back and someone says it’s nice out. You’ll say dews are still 60F and we can relive it again .

I’m getting intense déjà vu as we have the same conversation every. single. summer. Its humid as balls for a while and then dews drop from 73F to 60-62F and it feels much nicer out. Someone mentions it feels good and then a certain poster finds it funny that a dew of 61F is now comfortable. Every year. Without fail.

Didn’t you install Air Conditioning when the temp hit 60F in April and started wearing shorts and tees. Now the talk is cold and about wearing hoodies and shawls if the temp goes below 70F in the evening. Of course the body acclimates. Aside from busting balls, a sunny March day at 50F feels like summer… 50F in Sept/Oct feels frigid.

Even up here, now most have mini-splits or central air put in. It does feel more humid than it did a decade ago but it could be more on the mind lately. Part of it is that our society is less and less ok with being uncomfortable. We are less accepting of being uncomfortable and technology has allowed it easier to get efficient, quiet A/C that wasn’t as readily available 10-20 years ago.

Agreed, it needs to be back where it was in the upper Midwest stretching into the Lakes at times so we stay on the far eastern edge where heights are rising. As modeled that trough is deflecting everything.

Going to a summer wedding atop Jay Peak next weekend… this would be interesting if 850mb temps were low single digits. That’s a crisp air mass for end of July. Luckily the EURO is like +10 above this.