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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    More clarity the following day at 12z too.
  2. powderfreak
    Absolutely frigid mid-winter day. 6F outside all afternoon at Mountain Operations 1500ft with 30mph gusts. MVL down to 10F with wind.
  3. powderfreak
    If it helps, the NAM at 84 hours is a lot more jacked up than the EURO at 84 hours, ha.
  4. powderfreak
    Still widespread Advisory snows. This talk of missing and cirrus, figured it was nothing.
  5. powderfreak
    Ended with 7.4” for the event.
  6. powderfreak
    Cool product. Narrows the goalposts.
  7. powderfreak
    Yeah we don’t do deep pack to be honest, we do consistent pack. I’d wager 12-18” is a zone we live in most winters for a long period of time. Like you said, this pack is essentially a 6” block of ice with 6” of recent synoptic snow on top of it. The Stake is really only one more event away from normal too. 10” under normal can be easily made up. Tonight might get closer.
  8. powderfreak
    Where I live is around a foot, not too much. It’s more like 18-20” up here. I’m MOD tonight so hanging at the ski area till 8pm watching it snow, ha. Stake is up to 52”.
  9. powderfreak
    Snow has picked back up. Round two moving in. It’s loud snow mixed in… not quite sleet, not quiet all snow either.
  10. powderfreak
    Light snow starting up with Round 2.
  11. powderfreak
    Agreed. Also depends if tonight's round is included in those though too. Like this is what the GFS has from 12pm today onward. I always was including the second round in the forecast but I looked at BTV ended their initial forecast this afternoon which wouldn't include this stuff. I think most of the ski areas can get another 2-4" tonight... but the northern tier busted badly last night. CoCoRAHS around Jay Peak was only 1-2" on both stations.
  12. powderfreak
    5.5” at home this morning and about 6” at 3,000ft. Pretty wild that BTV, Picnic Tables and Stowe Village all had about exactly the same amount from round 1. Guess that’s what 600-700mb lift does with no terrain enhancement. Depth at home back up to almost 12". I think we've got another 2-4" coming from round too. GFS and NAM have 0.25 - 0.33" QPF. I forecast 8 - 14" for the ski area by tomorrow morning and we'll get into the range.
  13. powderfreak
    I think we've got another 2-4" coming. I forecast 8 - 14" for the ski area by tomorrow morning and we'll get into the range.
  14. powderfreak
    5.5” at home this morning and about 6” at 3,000ft. Pretty wild that BTV, Picnic Tables and Stowe Village all had about exactly the same amount from round 1. Guess that’s what 600-700mb lift does with no terrain enhancement.
  15. powderfreak
    What a scene. That's awesome!
  16. powderfreak
    This feels more like winter on the forum now. Day 6 ICON runs getting looked at and refreshed.
  17. powderfreak
    -SN started up here.
  18. powderfreak
    21/8 with north wind at 10 mph. Its gotten cold this afternoon. Going to wet-bulb into the teens with precip.
  19. powderfreak
    What a panel.
  20. powderfreak
    All this futility talk… some of these runs give you half your annual average or more in the next 10 days in SNE lol.
  21. powderfreak
    Heaviest tonight IMO up north will be on the 700mb thermal gradient. Best mid-level fronto. Models like that CVT toward Lakes Region.
  22. powderfreak
    Valid expectations, it was always a 3-6/4-8” zone in these situations when I was growing up near ALB. Warren County was winter with several inches then mixed, while we were happy with an inch or two of wet white material. 00z Reggie was south of NAM.
  23. powderfreak
    Yeah probably a lot of sleet on that run for your Lake George area. It’s definitely too far north, no way the globals are that far off. Its a solid correction south from the 12z run. The mesos and globals will meet in the middle.
  24. powderfreak
    3km NAM is good up this way, the blocked SE flow and then unblocked westerly flow helps on the east slopes throughout NNE.
  25. powderfreak
    The strong shortwave that moved through had some instability with it. We had squalls up north… down south my sister sent me photos and videos of large hail near BGM. She’s in a suburban neighborhood at over 1,000ft, which isn’t that high out there. She caught a close flash of lightning and immediate crack of thunder on video. It almost looks like huge graupel.
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