powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Don’t blame the daycare on that. -
Looked like it tried to CCB back into eastern MA better than 00z.
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A lot less QPF than the GFS continues to be the theme... though Euro looked like it might have attempted a CCB better in eastern areas.
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We had a half inch last night and nothing more until this afternoon and evening snow showers have left about an inch, missed all of the meaty stuff to the SE. The mountain looks like it probably got 3-4” this evening though a few miles away with the CAA portion.
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Definitely better by NE MA and NH border.
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Jeez that mix is north in Upstate NY.
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That’s going to end up a big run up here. Nod towards the Euro/NAM.
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What a thump on the HRRR up here. Like 6” in 4 hours. Just ripping.
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The QPF differences are wild.
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Looks like the Herpes.
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Upslope has turned on and it’s dumping this evening. Heavy squalls and wind.
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Yeah that's the 10:1 map vs. the Depth Change maps which seem to be up to 50% reduced.
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Positive depth change was posted. Not your generic clown map.
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It somehow got snowier up here too. One of these is not like the other.
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Yeah this is the “your backyard” part coming into it… because they do look decently different in several aspects, but your modeled snowfall total is the same on both for you.
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They’ve had avalanches crashing down towards residences in the area. Just insane snow. The Sheriff’s office had these photos in Olympic Valley. That’s a 3-story building!
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Yeah in the end, it doesn't matter how a model gets to point A or B, if it's wintry it's the model that showed snow (even if the SFC low was 150 miles off) that gets the win in the opinion. If one model shows snow and one shows rain, everything else about it doesn't matter I guess... it can miss the low track or positioning, etc.
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Right, you don't care what it shows. Your mind was made up two days ago.
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You aren't really showing or giving any examples so its hard to discuss. We'll agree to disagree and see what the end result is. This is yesterday's GFS run.
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Eh, they are both moving towards each other. Can see ticks from both models in the past 24 hours. Basically what should happen. One could make an argument either way. Say up north, the GFS has been increasing QPF to the north, while down south the Euro has become a bit colder. Depends on the variable you want to look at too. Low tracks they seem to be merging in the middle.
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One bite. Everyone knows the rules.
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Given all the Ensemble guidance... the GGEM/CMC ensemble is the middle road approach.
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6z 3km NAM looks like most of the systems of late. Gets into Ray to Hubby zone, while crushing Dendrite to Dryslot. It's still ripping up to 1"/hr in NH/ME at the end of the run here so there's more to come in those areas.
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I was just thinking how mild it was last night... MVL up here was 32-34F most of the night (actually it got up to 36F from 1-2am). Sure there will be CAA behind this current system but it's an interesting observation that for those that snow it might just marginally get there. Then again, that's all it has to do, get to 32F or lower.
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The ICON moved fairly substantially up into the NAM/EURO camp.
