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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    This is just a wave of moisture moving inland, thermals determine p-type. Big precipitation events are largely made up of atmospheric water going inland and then switching direction to the north and west, dragging that atmospheric water back out to sea.
  2. powderfreak
    The ensemble plot is only going to show the lowest pressure too. Given the shape of the ensemble mean surface pressure… it’s obvious there is a lot of spread. Prolonged easterly flow seems most likely to the north and west of the lows.
  3. powderfreak
    The models are signaling a strong elevation event for the interior hills. The lower elevations and coastal plain will depend on exact evolution and precip rates. Take 6-7:1 ratio in the lower elevation snow column, and 8-10:1 ratio in the higher elevation. Adjust map as needed.
  4. powderfreak
    Dude, so consistent there for you & company. Northern ORH County on each and every model run. The ratios also have an actual shot at 10:1 there too. East flow does upslope and leads to forced parcel ascent cooling there. Every few tenths of a degree of cooling will make a big difference in these marginal events. Low level air rising over you vs sinking over you, will define the event IMO.
  5. powderfreak
    Like the places in the Midwest that verify blizzard with no snow falling.
  6. powderfreak
    Terrible idea. Skip DDH and up into the hills like Woodford or eastern slopes.
  7. powderfreak
    And yet still care enough to be watching the thread all afternoon
  8. powderfreak
    Everyone was lined up outside the Dealer's house just now, and he only had enough product to get Hubby and ineedsnow their fix before closing the door and shades.
  9. powderfreak
    Congrats N.ORH County. 30-spot.
  10. powderfreak
    Hour 51.
  11. powderfreak
    Love a good play by play.
  12. powderfreak
    This sounds like a Ponzi scheme. It’ll be better for you if you give me your money. Trust me.
  13. powderfreak
    Such a tenuous set-up with the interaction of the northern and southern stream. High risk and reward. Large variability. This can’t be all that bad.
  14. powderfreak
    It’s crazy that this system is still far enough away for multiple model runs worth of trends to go.
  15. powderfreak
    If you guys get in the meat of the CCB I think that’s a reasonable ceiling for TAN to south coast given the air mass. 8-12” of 6-7:1 paste in heavy precip rates with wind would be a helluva event regardless.
  16. powderfreak
    The temps are annoying in general with this system, which ups the ante. Naturally you have to favor the elevations. It’ll snow anywhere the lift is strong enough, but the moisture in this system would hit HECS easily with a colder/fresher air mass. I’ve gotten stuck on imagining looking at these runs with widespread temps in the 20s, not low to mid-30s.
  17. powderfreak
    Happy Belated Birthday Tamarack!
  18. powderfreak
    How does one run go from this: To this:
  19. powderfreak
    Scooter’s wet dream there.
  20. powderfreak
    Way out there east, wow.
  21. powderfreak
    NAM big difference in parts of CT and adjacent NY. Runs like this: To this at 18z:
  22. powderfreak
    That seems aggressive to have the entire CWA at 10”+.
  23. powderfreak
    Yeah the northern part of ORH County is in it on every single run. Same with Berkshires and eastern Catskills for the most part. I'd take either northern ORH Cnty at 1,000ft+ or east slope of the Berks to be honest.
  24. powderfreak
    Northern ORH county gets obliterated.
  25. powderfreak
    Starting to?
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