powderfreak

Dumping at home. Silver dollars. Elevations must be getting crushed. Right on cue, I think I said models were hitting 9pm-4am or something like that. 02z HRRR still has a decent amount of QPF to come here in north-central VT.

It’s been slow down here in the valley at 750ft, as I’m sure 1500ft has been increasing much more rapidly. But it’s a snowy, wintry vibe out in town coming home from the movies. Every little twig has turned white. 33F.

Yeah that was a jump. GFS still digging in positive snow depth change. Edit Whoops that’s euro.

Yeah I thought heaviest here was like 9pm-4am? Isn’t this the warm frontal precip? Dry slot then the heavier stuff?

Pasty.

About an inch of paste at the ski resort here. Just light snow now.

Been snowing since noon at 1500ft here at the office. Pasty up on the hill, will go back out at 2pm to see. I hear its been wet snow in town, no accumulation, when precip is heavier. Currently drizzle down there at 750ft.

The dews are much higher than the same type of event last week. Last Sunday we went into it like 38/24 and it over performed snowy… this week we are 35/33 going into it.

We had 6:1 ratios last Sunday night. Crazy that the exact same time frame a week later looks fairly identical. Mountains look good for a healthy 8-12” of heavy wet snow while under 1000ft could be 2-5” of just birch breaking snow after starting as rain.

Your zones SE of the mountains and on the coastal plain can’t be an easy forecast. Could be a birch flattening 5-8” warning paste job, or 1-2” of slop, with white rain. I feel like the same is true here in the valley between the ridgelines. If places get a good quick 0.40-0.75” in 6-hours, with -1C at 925, it should snow even down low. The longevity of the event also means the highest totals will be higher up, the places that don’t have to rely on rates to accumulate more efficiently.

00z NAM trying along the beaches.

Ratios are not going to be close to 10:1, but another elevational paste job seems likely for most of NNE. With the CAD bringing paste to lower els in NH/ME.

WWA up. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches. Amounts up to 10 inches possible above 1500 ft.

Can see how the low level thermals are so dependent on dynamic cooling/strong lift aloft. If precipitation isn't as heavy or steady, this system probably trends warm in outcome. The precipitation just crushes the freezing/snow level downward toward the surface. KMPV/Montpelier. Been a super wet past two months. About 9" of water equivalent between 10/1 and 12/1. Mother Nature hasn't been afraid to precipitate, regardless of rain or snow.

True in general on models, expect the opposite of exotic. Look for mundane toned down outcomes, like cold rain. Good post, toss exotic excitement to Pluto.

I think that’s why I’m most skeptical though… inverted trough stuff seems more likely to fall apart or move around. As modeled though, the axis is good from like SQC through the NGreens and Whites and Greens… at least for continuing precip once the cold settles in a bit deeper. Looks to start as rain then go over to heavy wet snow. Under 1500ft I’d go with lowish ratios but another 5-8:1 pasting would be a scene.

18z Euro would work but there’s a lot that can go wrong in this set up.

Ahh I was talking more in general about weather models as a whole. On the EURO, in my mind its likely a couple things... I doubt its a worse model but it has lost it's skill over the other models. That gives it a perceived back tracking in skill. The gap has closed and it isn't the far and away best model. The GFS and others likely made stepwise improvements, while the EURO still made small gains but it appears to have gotten worse because it doesn't have the total domination anymore. Now if the GFS and others didn't make any improvements at all, and the gap closed, then the Euro would have had to get worse. Just logically thinking about two things and where they rank relative to each other in performance.

You truly think the NGM, ETA and MRF were better models? Or you thought you knew what to do with them better and didn’t have the information overload of today?

I mean I wasn’t the only one. Didn’t see anyone forecasting those amounts. It’s largely ratio driven for the most part. I mean you get 6 FROPAs over two weeks and 5 of them leave 1-2” and one does a foot. And they all look similar on the models. You only hear about the surprise ones, not the half dozen before that which left an inch.

This times 1000. Models are way better now. Maybe it’s a situation of information overload when 20 years ago or more you’d look at like 3-4 models. Now you can look at dozens of you want to. You’d look at the NGM, ETA and MRF and call it a day as a hobbyist and not see anything past Day 5 lol.

Mountain snow depth went up 11” in the past 24 hours, to 28” settled at 4pm. Thats pretty solid for an unforecast or overlooked event by those of us who follow this stuff daily. Last night saw what -12C at 850mb and some frontal pooling can do… plus residual moisture behind the front. If it’s -12C at the ridges, and the lift is happening just above that (like water flowing over a barrier), the snow growth is optimized in that DGZ of -12C to -16C. If there’s some moisture, it’ll snow above its weight.

As I mentioned in the NNE thread… the snow plots indicated 6-8” overnight. Which can ski like 14”.

Absolutely nuked last night. Plots had 6-8” overnight that skied like 14”.

Just shy of 3” on the car this morning and 6” new in the ski area parking lots.