powderfreak

Haven’t seen the run but the fact many like it generally doesn’t bode well up here, lol.

The downfall here is any solution at Day 5 is going to morph into something else most likely. Some variety of this, and we just hope the models are extrapolating the initial conditions as best they can. It is good theater though when the stakes are higher for a large population. Can go south, east, north, west. But climo nor’easter snow zones have highest probability by default. Interior SNE elevations into CNE. The ORH Hills were built for this stuff.

I’d sign up immediately for 1” of frozen SWE on top of the current snowpack and hope you guys get 2-3”.

The Winter Storm Warning calling for 6 - 8 feet of snow up high is absolutely bonkers. I can't stop looking at photos of the Lake Tahoe area south to Mammoth Lakes inhabited areas. Like legit 10 - 20 feet on the ground, where people live, and another 3-6 feet on the way, with 6-8 feet at the upper elevations of the ski areas.

To be honestly, a blend of the two maps would likely be the snow forecast of that particular solution. 5" or 25", call it 15" and have a day.

Yeah, though most of these runs are injecting solid moisture profiles with up to 150% PWATs. This time of year in March with onshore flow, many previous events have proven not to sleep on the QPF. Thermals are another thing though. *IF* the upper level features and low level low get in the right spot, I'd buy the QPF.

It's funny how that works. There's always something about missing to the south that hits a note. The concern is almost always south over rain up this way. But like @STILL N OF PIKE, I just want a good New England storm. Give me 3", a plowable snowfall, and bring the interest of keeping the masses involved. These threads are already so much better because everyone still has hope. Most of this season the event threads are dumpster fires... still time to get there though.

Probably more than upper moderate. That is Ray's wet dream (white dream?).

Absolutely, it was more a joke. I’d still take the ECMWF over the others, maybe not as much as a decade ago but we all want that model on our side. Euro is currently schooling the GFS right now up here in upslope snow. Euro had a good Lise yesterday then not much, Gfs keeps showing QPF that’s not happening.

This is when the posters constantly b*tching about how the Euro sucks these days, they wrecked the model, etc all the sudden aren’t mentioning those things lol. Everyone can say what they want but we all enjoy a ECMWF run that crushes more than any other model.

Anywhere from Kev to Ray on that prog, I’m not worried about rain if that’s how it rolls out. I get it for the BOS-PVD axis crew though. Just another run.

The p-type maps seem to mirror 925mb temps on WxBell. Large area of 0C that then crashes SE.

Yeah lower the ratios. It’s a 10:1 map. Do the math on 7:1 or average 5-6:1 going to 10:1 late.

Thats how it was able to snow at least some up here, ha.

EPS snow probabilities are decidedly less hugger than the Op though. More classic nor’easter snow distribution.

Ski Country from Adirondacks to Sugarloaf could work with this.

12z vs 18z 18z

If low is modeled northwest = more of the same, lots of rain, we know it’s right, congrats Dendrite, useless winter. If low is modeled far southeast = yup, a whiff, no surprise, what a useless storm, onto next winter. If low is modeled perfect and shows crushing snowstorm = never going to happen, it’s days away, it’s laughable some of you even entertain this solution.

I think it gets too blocked up tonight and tomorrow. Smuggs should do best but it’ll stay fresh on the east side too. Windier on east side as well, reducing accumulation (less loft to the flakes).

Periods of snow, heavy at times at the hill in upslope flow. Good 3-4” so far today at the ski area. This winter is trying hard to redeem itself. A lot of -SN obs out there. Looks like locally been running 1-3sm in -SN all day. KMVL 071854Z AUTO 34011KT 310V010 1SM -SN SCT017 BKN024 OVC030 M04/M08 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP124 P0000 T10441078

It’s just the way you talk about it to be honest. If it doesn’t show what you want you get very negative on the Euro. It certainly gives the feeling that your not interested in what it shows and at the same time annoys you that some folks might give it some credit.

Would help this winter’s status…unlikely outcome (as any) but fun to look at.

There has been over 5 feet of snow depth on Mount Mansfield for the first time since April 2020. Despite some lackluster periods this winter (to say the least), having the deepest snow depths in 3 years is a little bit of a rebound closer to normal. It's been a mini-streak of below normal snowpack up here. This isn't amazing. It is average; within 1 SD of the mean depth is average IMO.

Almost everyone has dreamed of those types of public transportation. It would be the sweetest thing... a loading terminal and then just a ride above the ground over a series of miles... what an attraction on its own, ha. The nightmare on these types of things during off hours is an evacuation needed or significant delays due to an issue that might require several people to fix. Need good on-call protocols that have a high number of staff/rescue personnel to evac a gondola in general, much less at 10pm or something like that Telluride to Mtn Village gondola. I can only dream of a lift like that around here. It would be a game changer, however impossible it is. Maybe in 50 years someone tries it. Things change quickly sometimes over time.