powderfreak

Valid expectations, it was always a 3-6/4-8” zone in these situations when I was growing up near ALB. Warren County was winter with several inches then mixed, while we were happy with an inch or two of wet white material. 00z Reggie was south of NAM.

Yeah probably a lot of sleet on that run for your Lake George area. It’s definitely too far north, no way the globals are that far off. Its a solid correction south from the 12z run. The mesos and globals will meet in the middle.

3km NAM is good up this way, the blocked SE flow and then unblocked westerly flow helps on the east slopes throughout NNE.

The strong shortwave that moved through had some instability with it. We had squalls up north… down south my sister sent me photos and videos of large hail near BGM. She’s in a suburban neighborhood at over 1,000ft, which isn’t that high out there. She caught a close flash of lightning and immediate crack of thunder on video. It almost looks like huge graupel.

It’s like Runaway said, the ceiling is high. But the floor is low.

Good point. They either go sizable or don’t go at all down there. That’s what it feels like this winter.

Like the 52” at 10:1 at IZG. Kuchie has them over 5 feet next two weeks, ha.

Yeah the plethora of 3-6” events has been very lacking this season. It’s either under 2” or over like 7”.

This from BTV seems reasonable. I think 6-10” or 7-11” is a good guess for most spots in their area. Snowfall totals are in the 7-11 inch range with potentially 11-15 inches on mountaintops.

Great squalls this evening. Spicy drive home from Waterbury. Only a half inch of paste but stuck to the tree trunks and such, amazing how wintry a half inch can look when paste.

Good stretch of high-probability snow. Amounts are unknown but the chances of any snow falling during those forecast periods is solid. Detailed Forecast Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Tuesday Snow showers likely, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 26. Windy, with a south wind 7 to 17 mph increasing to 22 to 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -8. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 31 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -9. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 26 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 11. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 16. Southeast wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 1. Windy, with a south wind 24 to 29 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Well said. That’s been the vibe most of the winter to be honest. Been an adventure of a season. Great post.

The joke is true… Ask an AMWX poster if they would blindly sign up for a foot and a half of snowfall over a wintry stretch, and the first question is “how much did other areas get?”

Haha now that you say it, sort of looks like his nightmare he talks about. Something like he’d rather get 6” if others get none, over maxes south and north while suffering to 18”.

lol It would be nice though.

That GFS run is forum nirvana. From South Coast to Cape Code to PWM to BTV. I mean I can’t think of a better forum wide run.

1-3” seems like a reasonable bet from GFS, Reggie, HRRR etc. But can certainly see a path towards 3-6” like NAM/3KM/HERPIES. Be nice to see the CT peeps get a win. Interesting little critter.

Dippin dots (graupel) showers this afternoon. Been pouring graupel at times in short duration near 40F. Very autumn/spring vibe… dark almost convective sky.

You tried to give a dig to a degreed Met offering long range ensemble guidance… and got pushback. Take the licks like a champ, ha.

I didn’t think of you at all, you didn’t overreact or break a laptop . The concern is definitely north mid-level trends. Concern is different than overreacting. But again, just busting balls. We are all jokesters and good sports. GFS had a nice one for you guys early next week.

This winter has done a number on folks, I get that too. But ironically it seems the ones that keep saying they are completely done with winter, find a way to melt each time. Then again it’s like sports fans… can say however many times they aren’t following the team anymore but then go ballistic at every blown game, missed shot, etc.

The forum may have overreacted a bit at 6z? Shocking.

GEFS are further south than they were yesterday. Dampens out the operational swings. Yesterday’s 12z Today’s 6z

Yeah I don’t see much change in past 48-72 hours to be honest as a collective. Toggle back two days ago. Seems like we all wanted it to get as far south as possible in that range knowing it would come back up.

One man’s crap is another’s treasure. It’s exactly where it was two days ago.