powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Ha, right? Its going to rain for SNE, it’ll keep trending north. It is interesting the posters who genuinely get enjoyment when the contrarian outcome occurs. The opposite of what the masses desire. Rain or whiff is all the same to them. -
You have to feel for all local meteorologists and the profession as a whole. This is the stuff that we all know couldn’t be seen happening, and the public will have zero mercy. The consistency was so stable for several days. You have to message that “modeled storm” the past few days to the public. But then if it snows 0-6”, after widespread 8-12”+ forecast with 1-2”/hr snows… it’s going be cause a whole other wave of “forecasters are a joke.”
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That is absolutely unbelievable. It goes to show, consistency between day 2-7 means nothing. The last 24-48 hours is what matters coming into an event.
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lol that’s not how I remember Messenger shuffles up here. They go ESE each run to go time, a tiny bit at a time. Like a torture you can’t avoid . When Messenger was posting bouy observations and every RAP run each hour sliding away in the last 6 hours before an event.
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Yeah good positive depth increases there.
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The positive snow depth map is likely the much better option.
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18z HRRR crushes NYC. What a system for modeling.
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It’s pretty marginal but sleet wouldn’t be that surprising along the warm nose. It’s just the boundary layer may not be overly cold. Folks hear sleet and think of cold pellets accumulating in the 20s. Overall this looks like snow and white rain/rain will be the gradient.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
powderfreak replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
It’s only 30% into the month so far but these departures are incredible. Might be beating a dead horse after a couple months of these departures, but the fact that there has been snow on the ground for most of the winter has been the surprising part. 1V4… +13.7 (100+ year POR) MVL… +13.3 BTV… +11.9 (140+ year POR) MPV… +10.8 Yesterday was 55/30 and a +27 at both MPV and MVL. -
1.2" QPF on a 7:1 ratio is a fun event. Looking forward to some of the obs and photos from this.
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Not gonna happen but the fact that it gives you double digits while has a sleet pocket over a hilltop in Tolland is amusing.
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Hard to deny the GFS consistency. Nice hits over and over for SNE. This stuff is healthy.
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Personally, I’d go with the ICON over the GGEM. The Germans don’t over-forecast snow most of the time.
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For sure, they can’t be looked at as a final solution. No model really can. It’s all one big ensemble to us all on the forum. We check them out, but weigh them according and look for trends.
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Yup, and we all check its solution too.
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People shit on it all day long at times, but it often operates in the realm of possibilities. So much so that we all check it each run.
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This one has been easy to watch from afar. Heavy suppression has been evident for a few days. This one is locked and loaded for SNE. As an outsider’s perspective, I like I-90/Pike to RT 2 zone. I think the chances to get the pivot (even if quick moving), reside in that latitude block. Maybe it sneaks into SNE? But if a good deform band develops and nukes… that’s the 12-18” zone.
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+12 to start the first 10 days of February. This winter has been incredible for positive departures.
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Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
powderfreak replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective. -
Folks need to see solutions within 48 hours of go-time. Still several days to go; it feels like we’ve been tracking the period for weeks.
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I’m mildly concerned about a day of clouds. Looks like it should be a good one to raise spirits in SNE. Everyone has been so beaten down this winter. Would be nice to get some positivity going for the masses.
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I mean, this is climo for those closer to the coast. Within 50-75 miles of the Atlantic (goes back past ORH) is prone to healthy QPF snows… currently looks like a classic Miller B. Eastern latitude be favored.
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Thanks guys, I just happen to find myself in a position to be able to inform the core skier/rider group with information. Solid understanding of the weather, understanding that “snowfall” is what it is at consistent plots, and knowledge of operations (with the trust we will communicate properly) is what drives a snow report. It’s the written storytelling of a day on the mountain… the morning outlook… end of the day reflection. Jay does it very well, with Stowe.
