nj2va

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I really love the place. Only complaint I got- they don't open when there is a blizzard.

Blasphemy.  

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That would be my choice. Good stuff. And I love everything about DFH- including touring/sampling at the brewery in Milton, and eating great food(and drinking) at the brew pub and C&M restaurant in Rehoboth.

I was there at the pub in Rehoboth in June (first time).  Great place, loved the atmosphere, and the beer was on point.  

Riding the line of rain and sleet/freezing rain...always livin' on the edge!

40/25.  

42/25 at home.

30 at the house in McHenry, under a WSW.   

Just now, snowmagnet said:

I love the chase, as probably most people on this forum.  It's great to find people as snow crazed as me!  I am thrilled about the winter outlook this year and being able to start so early is perfect. My mom passed away in July after 6 months of brain cancer hell and I definitely will need the distraction during the upcoming holidays.  Bring on the fantasy snow maps. 

What a terrible way to lose your mom, I'm sorry for your loss.  My aunt just passed away from brain cancer after a miraculous (?) survival of six years since initial diagnosis.  Watching her deteriorate at the end was tough to see.  Hopefully tomorrow's storm is a precursor for an active winter to keep your mind preoccupied with other things.  

Maybe it’s just me but it’s seemed the overall mood here has been realistic with expectations in the metros. I don’t think anyone was buying 5” of snow in DC on Nov 15. 

A couple hours of frozen before rain sounds good to me. 

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm wondering if the RGEM is switching over too quickly.  The NAMs don't have the switch over that fast and aren't they faster than the RGEM getting precip into the region?

It’s probably a bit too fast but I think we’re raining by noon in DC if I had to guess.  

00z RGEM 2-3 hours of sleet for DC before rain...I’ll take.  Switches most of the sub forum to rain Thursday afternoon...favored areas hang on the longest obviously.  

3k flips DC to rain ~15-16z Thursday. 

Holy bowling ball, Clark.  

DPs look to be near 20 in the colder spots to upper 20s in the cities at precip onset.  Should help with cooling temps initially.

Though how the hell can he score AND get called/penalty for goalie interference on the same play?  Either its a goal or not.  Bad referees + reputation penalty. 

Just now, ravensrule said:

Tom Wilson. My man. What a beast.

So happy he’s back.  

I’m upset no one has posted the SREF...

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Well you didn’t use the emoji with the ax in his head so can’t be too bad

It’s Nov 13 today...can’t really complain about it.  

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Euro temps have always been a lot more spot on for MBY than most others so warmer isn’t better for me

We’ll enjoy our 10 minutes of sleet followed by an 1” of 34 degree rain.  

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

How does it compare to 12z?

Overall, I’d say a step back but the positives are quicker precip and cooler 850s at onset.  Precip starts in DC by 12z (0.1” already fallen by 12z in DC in the 18z run vs the 0.1” line SW of Manass at 12z run)..  850s slightly colder at the start.  Surface starts a touch colder in places but its a warmer run at the surface overall than 12z.  Looking at the verbatim 10:1 snowfall maps, definitely cut back...2.5” runs through DC vs 4.5” at 12z.  

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is there really an 18z euro?

Yes.  Looking at it now. Precip comes in quickly and cools the column nicely...850s in DC go from +1 to -3 from 9z to 12z.  But surface is 34 in the city and warms to 36 in the afternoon.  You stay at/below freezing at the surface until overnight into Friday.  

Higher guesses rolling in now.  Thursday's storms are getting peoples hopes up.

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Can't hate the fact that this thing has continued to trend in a favorable fashion regardless of the snow outcome. I don't know if that's a sign or not for the winter but it sure does make the lead up a heck of a lot more enjoyable. 

Atmosphere seems to go by memory so maybe a foreshadowing of D/J/F.  Or maybe we're using all our good luck up with this storm.

My bar is seeing some type of frozen fall from the sky in MBY given its not even the second half of November yet. I wish I was at Deep Creek for this one.

Tom Wilson returns tonight!  @ravensrule

Watches posted for the I-81 corridor @WinterWxLuvr

Classic CAD signal on the GFS with the bent isobars.  

I'm excited to see some kind of winter weather fall from the sky even if its for a brief 10 minutes before we flip to rain.  It's been a parade of coastals that doesn't seem to want to end...

...that is until D/J/F comes around.