nj2va

Good article on the pending GPS upgrade (FV3):

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1

43 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

This is when the CCB started to set up over the area around 10am or so....4-6hrs of heavy snow that dropped 6-12" more than eastern areas.  We were in a rare lucky sweet spot.

 

The pictures of the snowfall during the CCB were so intense.  I was getting dry slotted at the time but as it pulled through here, it was legit blizzard conditions for an hour or so.

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I don’t think we would ever see a more bullish prediction from a mainstream weather source this early in the season.  That looks just fine to me. I hope it domes in multiple 2-4 inch events vice one big one.

Dare I say it reminds me of the leadup to 09-10? :ducks:

I’m up in central jersey at my folks place today.  Very windy and pouring here. Under a high wind warning. 

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

We take and run

No complaints from me in that map. #allin

Here’s Toppers forecast

https://www.wusa9.com/mobile/article/weather/weather-blog/dc-winter-weather-forecast/65-607294606

Can we pin this?

10 hours ago, yoda said:

Wizards in their first 3 games this season

 

I can't keep track of which teams you like.  Wiz, Penguins, Rangers, and Dolphins?

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

6z and 18z EURO up on weathermodels.com now... what a world we live in.

I reupped to wxbell today. They need to get on this. 

need to satisfy my addiction

Latest Euro weeklies (through Dec 7) is -1.5 to -2.0 as the 2m temp anomaly and slightly above average precip (precip looks to be Nino-like with negative departures along Gulf/SE/into Mid Atlantic).  Give me this look throughout the rest of December and I'd be shocked if we got out of the month with 0" snowfall.  

ETA:  This is for the 46 day mean btw.  

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Interesting the latest Euro for next Sunday tries to establish a semblance of a banana high with a coastal resulting in only 30s for highs n+w and some wet flakes even in northern Md . Gfs in contrast maintains some strong energy to the west northwest . I'm sure details will change being 7 days out but a coastal is looking more and more possible next weekend. Hopefully the beginning of many coastals this season 

 

 

Giving us good practice for coastal tracking this winter. ❄️

Weird to see snow and leaves on the trees.

Manny Machado is such a loser. Let’s go Brewers. 

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well whatever it is, it will be snow soon enough  

I’m totally geeking out right now.  30 mph gust on my PWS, T&L, some kind of hail/ice/graupel/rain mix.  And my temp is down 7 degrees in 35 minutes.  Pretty wild.  

Thats what I would think given the vertical temp profile, and crashing temps.

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I will be up on the roof tomorrow applying finish to the logs on the side of the dormer, with 40+ mph wind gusts. Should be fun!

I kinda thought your area would over-perform a bit. Throw us flat landers a few pics.

Hope you eat a full breakfast to weigh you down.

aaaaand its hailing right now.   Didn’t expect that.

Wind Advisories hoisted by NWS Pitt for Garrett/Preston/Tucker/etc for sustained 15-25 & gusts to 50.  Pitt increased my P&C to 1-3” tonight.  Hopefully a preview of an active winter for our entire forum.  

ETA:  LWX rolled out Wind Advisories for the western parts of the forum and Mt. Holly for the Eastern Shore.  DC split  

14 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might see a couple inches in your area and especially down towards Canaan. Enjoy!

Yeah, favored areas towards Canaan could see 3”.  I’m looking at an inch or so since I’m below 3000’.  And I just bought a pair of skis..good timing

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s weird. He used to be a super pessimist on snow. Downplayed several of our historic storms at short leads as I recall.

Gotta get that click bait going. 

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was at my parents and they had channel 11 on ( I NEVER watch any  local news). Tony Pann- shameless Twitter hypester- had a 30% chance of rain/snow for the Baltimore area early Sunday morning. And he made a point of playing up the possibility of seeing snow in the air. Without even looking, I bet there is not a NWS  point and click anywhere east of Frostburg with even  a mention of a snowflake. 

He’s a mini JB for sure.  He’s good for a morale boost when every model shifts north 72 hours out and we’re left smoking cirrus, yet he’s adamant we see warning level snow.  He’s a weenies dream!

4 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Advisory level precip in the mountains perhaps? 

What will likely prevent advisory will be the relatively warm ground temps unless it can come down hot and heavy.  I am excited to see snow though...P&C has 1” tomorrow night.

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would think that the water around DC matters in the early fall too.  I don't know what the temp of that water is, but I imagine it's still pretty warm.

It's about 58 degrees per this site:

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/dc/nwis/uv?cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00400=on&format=gif_default&site_no=01646500&period=&begin_date=2018-10-12&end_date=2018-10-19

39 low. No frost. 

First freeze at the house in McHenry.  Got down to 29.6.