nj2va

All we need is an Ellinwood map with a grey 0-0.5" over 95 with the dreaded pink "Mixing to Rain" over the cities.  

8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Wasting a good setup in November.  I wish we could bank this for January. 

I feel good that we see this setup again at least once in DJF. 

Just now, yoda said:

3km NAM at 60 - which is 12z THUR - ends with a lot of sleet in western into central VA

Faster onset of precip than 18z.  

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How does it compare to the 12z Euro? Take a step Back? Improve?

Didn’t dig too much into details (navigating his website is torture even when the panels work) but snowfall map is another improvement.  2” line was running through DC at 12z.  IAD 4” at 12z...5” at 18z.  (Not endorsing those totals, just showing the “improvement”)

18z Euro has precip onset just after 12z Thursday.  A few hours of mix for the cities before changeover to rain.  Surface temps start at 34 but cool to 32 during the morning hours before starting to warm up.  Favored areas stay below freezing through 00z Friday.  Temps start crashing by 9z Friday and a potential flip back over to frozen as it ends (ha, we do so well with that around here).  

10:1 snowfall maps have the 2” line just SE of DC and 3” running through the city.  While I do think we see a period of frozen precip, I don’t think we accumulate at all.  I think the favored areas could see a few inches of sleet/snow.  Just my guess at the moment.

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh hi there. 

“D.C. usually gets about 15 inches of snow, but Storm Team4 is predicting 25-35 inches this winter in the metro area and along Interstate 95. Expect 35-45 inches out toward Dulles International Airport and Frederick, Maryland, and even more than that further west.”

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Winter-Weather-Forecast-DC-Maryland-Virginia-500305531.html?fbclid=IwAR3wgUd7PUGFFBk2mnnSpoR9FdKBhxo6yIZ9tOCkuyP-ZDdC5HtiHyS2crY

Doug K is going all in!  Headline:  Double the Average in the DMV.  Yes please.  

At least we only have to wait 25 minutes for the 18z Euro to initialize.  #gimmethegoodstuff to help calm the model shakes for another few hours...

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks.

I was awful  

Not as bad as vice regent.  

The CPC map is centered on Thanksgiving though...wouldn’t we want to show the analog for D+3?  

Exciting to be tracking something this early.

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm feeling optimistic that most of us see our first frozen precipitation Thursday.  But I'm still very skeptical of any accumulations outside of the mountains or maybe Hoffman's house/Mt. Parkton. 

Yeah, exactly.  We could see some frozen precip before the transition to rain but I’m extremely pessimistic at the snowfall maps outside of Garrett/WV ridges and favored zones up north.  

GFS verbatim may be a very brief period of some mix precip for the cities but quickly transitioning over to rain.  Would be a prolonged frozen event for the 81 corridor.  

Even with an all rain scenario for MBY, its good to see this setup as he head into more favorable snow climo for the corridor.  Love to see a parade of coastals.  

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I broke down and bought a weathermodels.com subscription. Probably will let it cruise through March if the need arises. Pretty maps galore. 

If you can figure out the navigation, let me know.  It’s a maze.

Saw A Star is Born today...really good movie.  Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper deserve Oscars for that.  I’m sure Hollywood will give it to some French movie no one ever heard of nor wants to see.  

Thanks for running this!  My best showing yet of any MA contests.  Maybe a good sign for my overly ambitious snowfall guess.

33. So close to my first freeze.

Impressive, this region is on quite the hot streak. 

51 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I imagine they can take the strongest brunt of moisture from coastals.

Also more N&E so better chance at scoring a little more from a Miller B. 

Snowing in McHenry per my Ring cam and Wisp looks like they are making snow per the Wisp cameras.  

In Arlington, its raining leaves right now.  

43 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

Lol Malkin has only been fined once and is not even close to repeat offender status like Wilson is. Wilson has been suspended 4 times.

Malkin got a major and a game misconduct for the hit.  Oshie returned to the game, no worse for wear apparently, and scored the GWG.  Malkin will get a fine and that will be it. 

Malkin is a loser.  No team is better than the Pens/Sullivan at whining about calls/non-calls both during and after the game.  Not surprised at the no suspension at all given Sullivan's uncanny ability to get what he wants from the NHL.  

Holtby single handedly saving the Caps tonight, pun intended. 

ETA: Oshie!!

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think a -NAO is still on the table?

For when?  We should see -NAO this winter, my guess especially towards February.  

20 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

BWI: 0.1"

DCA: 0.1"

IAD: 0.1"

RIC: 0.1"

 

Tiebreaker - SBY: 0.1"

 

sometimes you gotta play a little dirty...

Until someone goes 0.2”

YAY, no more political ads on TV! 

8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Temps bust today?  I'm at 57

If we get some clearing this afternoon, they’ll respond.