nj2va

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

To add to the weeniefest going on.... lol

Cfs weeklies are below normal temps weeks 3-6 and above normal precip week 3. Cfs monthly is below normal temps Dec and Jan with Jan looking very cold.  

Wall to wall winter incoming?

Frozen bay? 

57 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

Pardon me all. I've reviewed many posts since yesterday. Are we here in Washington DC area suppose to get way below normal temps for Thanksgiving and Friday for sure? I have family coming in. Tyvm. 

Replying to you in this instead of the LR thread. Yes, it will be abnormally cold in DMV on Thursday. 

Can we ban the word Friendsgiving?

NAM is jumping on the upslope opportunities tomorrow and Wednesday in the mountains.  I wouldn’t be surprised if I see a few inches here in Deep Creek and more down near Canaan at the higher elevations.  

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the EPS was never as enthusiastic with the NA blocking as the GEFS in the LR, and even less so now. The AO state is the most important feature as we head into Dec IMO, and looking at the MSLP anomaly panels I see orange and not a blue ball towards the pole, so I would say we are on track. Plus the PAC look improves quite a bit towards day 15.

Absolutely.  I never thought we’d see a steady -NAO for a long period of time but its nice to see we can actually get a -NAO in winter.   

No big blue ball of death over Alaska either which reinforces the favorable PAC we’re seeing at the end of the run. 

Pretty crazy to see this map and its not even Thanksgiving yet...

Overnight EPS breaks down the -NAO in early December but what’s nice to see is its neutral while higher heights are still in the AO domain.  PAC isn’t hostile either.  Strange feeling good going into December...

Euro keeps everyone north of EZF below freezing on turkey day.  Impressive to say the least.

6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

12z Euro even colder for Thanksgiving morning. Highs still don't get out of the 20s for most of the area.

 

 

 

Hoping to make a run at single digits as a low here (McHenry).  

Great picture

16 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think it was WxUSAF that said the FV3 outperformed the current gfs with the last system, so I am going to just assume that the 6z 384 hour panel is right.

I think he also said trust HRRRRRR all day, every day. 

I’ve missed these mornings...drinking coffee, looking through overnight runs, and reading the LR thread analysis. 

I’ll be in Deep Creek tomorrow through next weekend.  Bring on the cold Thanksgiving (and hopefully upslope).  

34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As long as every storm is a positive bust and we have a historic winter, everyone will be happy!

Just wait until 5-7" forecasts 'busts' because its widespread 4-6".  It'll be one jumper after the next.  

that h5 pattern leading into december is straight up WOOF-worthy.

Nice to see QPF heavy storms repeating. Hi El Niño. 

11/15:  1.9”

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anybody else disgusted with the invention of gas fireplaces. I have been sitting in front of this one for 14 years and today I realized it is a fake fire. Maybe the Macallan 12 is screwing with my brain. But I really miss the real wood fire smell. Anyways.....

Yep, we took out the gas fireplace last year at the house in McHenry and put in a wood burning stove.  Love it so much more.  The smell, look, and authenticity of it is way better.  Something about flipping a switch and POOF fire starts is not appealing to me.  

This 'winter' already beats last 2 winters combined.

ETA:  I just want to keep posting on this thread to get us to a new page so I don't need to scroll through EJ's post anymore.

27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Too lazy (and a tad drunk) to do a detailed analysis, but the new edition of the EPS weeklies look pretty sweet. Here is a sample.

 

Thats a good look especially considering its a 7 day mean.  I wish I was drunk.

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Scraff and I are at the Alehouse in Columbia talking about you all over a couple of Founders beers.

Extremely jealous.  You guys need to move to DC instead so we can meet up here.  

P&C at my house in McHenry is drool worthy.  2-4" today and additional 3-5" tonight.  

Rain/sleet in Arlington. 

Loud sleet hitting the office window in Rosslyn,

Back to all snow, big fatties in Rosslyn/N Arlington.  Vis dropping looking across the river.