nj2va

ICON gets the 00z suite off a disappointing start for NVA/DC.  Precip primarily stays RIC/south.  SW VA highest totals.

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

For those of us who don't know, can someone in here decipher that Euro weeklies 500 setup everyone is drooling over in the main thread? I get the ridge in the west and the trof in the east being good but what else makes it drool worthy? 

Also I think it's Bob who keeps saying how good it is that the polar vortex is being beat up... Why is that such a good thing? 

Higher heights over Green Land and the AO domain equals -NAO and -AO.  Ridge out west and trough in the east signals stormy chances in the east.  50/50 low to lock in confluence.  All classic signs for high chances for frozen precip in the Mid-Atl.  

A consolidated, strong PV keeps cold air up in Northern Canada/Arctic Circle.  If it gets beat up/perturbed/elongated, better chances for cold air to spill down into lower Canada/CONUS.

Just now, Snowchaser said:

Great update from DT!! here it is in short.

''around 3 inches in Washington to Baltimore is most likely, with the chance for 8-9 inches,

and a good chance for a historical snowfall from Charlottesville down into south western Virginia" 

 

 

 

 

He’s putting out snowfall totals already?  Gutsy.

Just now, yoda said:

How's the 00z NAM at 84 look tonight?

Storm cancel

Lol, that team is cursed as long as Snyder is the owner.  

LOL

Here’s WPC’s thinking as of 20z for Day 7.  

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Favorable location to maintain CAD and deeper thickness of the cold..usually 

Also helps to expand the precip shield on the western edge (I think).

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ninos deliver late usually, and this one was also a late starter. Mid Jan to early March might legit rock.

Lol, I swear I didn’t copy your post.  Such similar thoughts.

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

No matter what happens this weekend, that look leads me to believe some seriously fun times are right around the corner. 

Any snow next weekend would be bonus considering the late start to this Nino especially.  But seems January and beyond could be quite busy around here.  

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Umm..

.

 

Holy fook, that’s a KU look right there.

RiC/Central VA/Central NC bulleye on FV3.  Stafford County 1’ and DC 6”.  Snow gets just past the M/D line on this run.  18z has been kind.

7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I hope I'm not the only one over 21 who doesn't drink here.

Bob doesn’t

GEFS definitely not south of 12z.  6” line to DC.  2” line is up near Trenton.  Haven’t looked through the individual members.

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I honestly see wobbles.

Go to the regular GFS hour 126 and toggle back to the previous run (12z at 132).  That’s not just a wobble, that’s a completely different look at H5:  closed low now and more importantly look towards NE.  Higher heights at 18z and less energy off the coast.  

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Given the marginal airmass in place, this is a valid concern. But the reality is this is a concern in most set ups for I-95 and east. And we talkin early Dec here.

True but lets get a storm first and then we can iron out the specifics on temps, RA/SN line, etc.  I'm not sure I'm immediately jumping to worrying about rain given the suppressed signal on the last few runs/EPS.  

1 minute ago, GATECH said:

LOL, 12z vs 18z

 

Wait, so central GA shouldn't plan on 6-8" of snow 150 hours out?  So you're telling me the models can't make shifts this far out?

Just now, BristowWx said:

I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others.  that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out.  

What? 

Real nice hit for Central and SW VA.  Amazing differences at H5.  It'll be interesting to see the FV3 which will probably go south to really give us some clarity. 

Precip reaching DC at 144

The NS sw is a bit further east through 108...sharper trough in the SS sw.  

1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

I feel like I’m the only one who has given up hope. We went from things looking fantastic to pulling for stings....early yet I know but it would be a heartbreaker if we miss out....again. 

Always plan on snow missing this area...it works out much better that way so you won't be disappointed.    

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Any word on the 12z UKIE?

Precip only goes to 72 but here is the MSLP at 144.  I would think that has room to come north after 144 (especially compared to the regular GFS) based on that panel but I'd defer to the experts here.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just need the northern stream vort that's diving through New England to adjust north a little bit. 

Yeah, this is a key feature to hone in on if I'm interpreting things right...even a tiny adjustment would work...

12z ICON is a hit for central VA, especially back west towards Roanoke where the highest snow totals would be concentrated verbatim.  Just need a slight tug north of the low and it'd be good for NVA/DC.