nj2va

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Small but positive changes at h5 through 63. Spoke too soon .Confluence reared its ugliness again at 75

It looked better early but the wheels fell off the train towards the end.  The confluence does not want to give up.

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The NAM is closed at 500 over TX at hour 57. But there is a brick wall just waiting for it over central PA. 

You’re telling me.  By 75, its pressing down a touch more than 18z.

ETA:  it’s like the giant middle finger stop sign from the NS.  

Welp, its the NAM but through 63, the sw ss is stronger resulting in heigher heights in front.  Confluence in NE is north of 18z.  We’ve got nothing to lose so we might as well analyze the NAM.  

5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

It's odd that, to me, the free ones (TT, Pivotal, College of DuPage) generally have nicer UIs than the paid ones... They just don't have the zoom and the paid models. 

You could easily save $$ by using the free sites and browsing each of the sub forums to get what you need.  I may decide to do that eventually if weather models doesn’t improve its reliability.  

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Dear lord I hope the next threat suddenly appears the day before it hits

Unfortunatlely it’d shift north 24 hours out and miss us.

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z is unanimous for the first time. Completely lasered in on the op. I don't think the ens have been bad with this event. They have favored the nc/sva hit for many runs. The spread kept us hooked because there were enough good ones in the mix but overall the southern solution was always the majority. 

I do think it's still possible for a shift north but the idea is fading every six hours now unfortunately. 

Oh they (OP and ENS) have favored SW VA/W NC for days but they’ve been bouncing around up here (similar to the OPs)...maybe that’s due to DC/NVA being on the northern fringe so any jog will have a significant impact here?  I don’t remember an event where the snowfall means jumped from run to run like it has with this event.  Though honestly, I don’t have a laser precise memory like some here where they remember every event like clockwork.  

We’re on life support but I still think this comes north some.  

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Speaking of the GEFS... the mean (sorry if this was posted already) is godawful. This needs to turn around ASAP

 

 

They’ve been bouncing around like a fish out of water...6”, 2”, 1”, 7”, 0”, 2”, 1” and so on.  The ensembles seem less useful this go around for some reason.

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Maybe this has been said but our threat sure has similarities to 2003 PD2 at H5. Pd2 had a stronger high ..but further north . Pd2 surface low tracked through southern Arkansas instead of Louisiana but overall looks close. 

 Ewall is on the fritz but here are a few gefs members

 

It’s going to come down to the strength of that confluence.  If models are overdoing it or it ends up further north by 50-100 miles, then its game on around here.  That stuff could easily change within 78 hours, let alone 100-120 hours out.

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

What do you use? I've seen you doing Euro pbp as well

I’ve always used weatherbell until this season and I’m using Weathermodels.  I like some aspects of it but overall, find it SO SLOW and frankly unreliable to get the maps I’m looking for (I.e. they don’t load all the time).  I’m honestly used to the navigation now and prefer it over wxbell...just took some getting used to.  My biggest complaint is how unreliable it is when the data is coming in...or even once the run is done.  I’ve even tried it on Safari, Firefox, and Chrome...all the same issues.  

Just now, caviman2201 said:

So... We've established that Weathermodels.com is an s-show. This year is my first time using it after years of using WxBell which was pretty but also very slow. What else is out there besides those two? I'm thinking about going back to WxBell if only because the interface is less confusing. 

StormVista is the other major site.  Though their maps look like it was drawn by my niece.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One trend is bothering me. I assumed the stj system would end up stronger and pump heights in front more. But the northern stream is trending even more suppressive to our northeast offsetting that. 

Any positive that goes in our favor seems to get squashed (pun intended) by stronger confluence.  If we could keep that from trending stronger from here on out, I could see how that relaxes/models overdoing it just enough to bring this north inside of 72 hours.  But we can’t be looking at no precip north of VA/NC border and expect that much of a shift.  Just keep RIC in the 0.5”+ QPF and I’ll remain interested up until the bitter end.

18z Euro similar to 12z.  Confluence is a touch stronger than 12z but sharper ss sw and the northern energy over the Dakotas is just south of the 12z position.  I can’t get the surface map to load because the weathermodels site was apparently created by the Flintstones using Windows 95.

ETA:  Bad news is that it wouldn’t be a better outcome than 12z if I had to extrapolate from there.  

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think it will end up being just noise.  Confluence looks stronger this run.  Further north but a tick weaker.  A wash is my call.

Someone posted it already, measurable precip is south of EZF which is substantial shift south from 12z.  We just have to luck into it on Sunday/Monday as it seems we just bounce back and forth between minor hit and nothing.  Hopefully the last run before the storm is a miss....should bode well.

Just now, MountainGeek said:

 

 

LWX hedging further north than that; keeping us on the northern edge. For a little perspective here -- normally we'd be thrilled at the prospect of getting 2-4" this early in the season, and that would still be a solid outcome even if we have to watch SE jackpot.

 

 

SEems reasonable at this point.  10-30% chance depending on where you are.  If things don’t start shifting tomorrow (not just a run here or there), it’ll be a different story.

It’ll be funny to see the seasonal snowfall map after this storm.  Big ol’ hole over the DC area with the southern MA and Northeast filled in with purples and pinks.  

It seems the GFS has been trending for less interaction between the NS vort coming out of the Dakotas and our ss vort, if you loop the past four runs.  

17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Still looks like a wall in new England, though.

It's moving east though (as long as not replaced by another NS middle finger vort) -- but its SW than the GFS' position at the same time frame.  Also, ss sw is much stronger than the GFS at the same timeframe and there's some phasing already occurring.  Like today, its one good thing but a bad thing to offset so we're left with a wash.  I'd still take my chances with a bowling ball as depicted on the NAM.

Putting this here instead of the storm thread but I'd always take my chances with this look at the end of the 18z run of the NAM (blah blah yes its the NAM blah blah).

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

as we all wait for the 12z GEOS-5 to run, let's look at the 00z so we'll have it as a baseline for comparison

 

I'm hugging anything that shows DC in the game.

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Where exactly was the snow cutoff from the euro op?  Everyone just fled after seeing it...

Just north of RIC.  EZF is 0.02" of QPF for reference.

Very nice eulogy by George W. Bush for his father today.  

*Now back to your regularly scheduled cancel winter programming*

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Anyone think the 12z Euro has this thing nailed? It still may miss south, but it ain't gonna go down quite like that. 

I expect come incremental, maybe meaningful, changes over the next few model cycles. Still some uncertainty with the NS shortwave(s) coming in off the PAC and the degree of interaction with the ss shortwave, and that is key to how this system evolves.

Some here need to step back from their computers for a bit.  Or go dig up images of old model runs showing a snowstorm to give them the hit they so desire.

I don't understand how some think OPs are locked in 4-5 days out.  While people always point to January 2016 as being "locked in" and not shifting, forget that for many model runs, it appeared NJ/NYC was on the outside, looking in.  When all was said and done, NYC ended up with more snow than DC.  Obviously different setups and different reasons for the "north shift" but I'm not sure why people assume this is the final solution.  Obviously, mountains of NC and SW VA are certainly favored for seeing the highest impacts but NVA/DC/Central MD are certainly not out of the game at this point.

Gut punch by the Euro...definitely wasn’t expecting that given 0z last night and even the 6z EPS.  Seems we’re on life support but lots of moving parts so could still see DC getting in on it.

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The 6z EPS was very promising from a graphic I saw on Maue's page this morning, lots of lows tucked closely into the coast, right off ORF. Mean snowfall in DC was an increase, but there were also a number of lows inland over NC and the Potomac. 

I didn't even know we had access to the 6z EPS until I saw PSU's post.  A cluster of lows definitely NW of the mean (which is right off OBX) with a few up the Bay.  I'd post but we can't do Euro maps unfortunately.