nj2va

I actually think that was one of the better GFS (non FV3) runs we’ve had (except for the blip 18z yesterday).  Yes, trying to time a phase is tricky but all signs point to confluence over NE being too strong to overcome with the initial Vort.  We need the feature diving in from the plains to phase and bring it up the coast.  GFS was close.  Onto the GEFS!

1 minute ago, yoda said:

For you baseball fans, Nationals have signed Corbin to a 6 year deal worth reportedly $126 mil

Nice!  Thanks Yoda

This is what will bring the Euro home for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm 99% confident the stj is gonna be fine here. The issue will be whether the NS wants to play nice. 

Exactly.  Which is why being ‘in the game’ (central VA hit) is important since I think some of the ridging out in front of the storm is probably a tad underdone.  

That’s a pretty healthy stream of moisture flowing in on the STJ into our storm on the Euro.  

I’m still waiting for my 24” of snow the Euro gave me 24 hours out from the March event.

Sh&t just got real...Coastal posted in the Lr thread.  

At least we can enjoy the FV3 for 30 more minutes until the Euro shows no precip getting north of Raleigh.

Yeesh, almost 2" of QPF in DC all snow on the 12z FV3.

At least looking at the snowfall maps, GEFS mean improved in DC.  6" now into DC.  2" line up into Central NJ again.

ETA:  Mean QPF at 0.8" for DC...hard to tell with having to zoom in on the Weathermodel maps.  0.5" line at the M/D border heading NE from there.  

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Multiple issues.  The delay keeps letting the GFS rotate a lobe down into Maine to suppress.  Meanwhile the kicker in the northern plains ruins the SS sort by stringing it out.  One run.  So many pieces to resolve.

Lots of moving parts.  If all things equal in the GFS 12z and that lobe was 100 miles north, DC would be in the game.  Good, early test of the models.

Through 78, heights are a little lower on the EC vs 6z but that may be due to the fact that the NS vort is a little faster this run.  Maybe it'll get out just in time to allow this to come north.  We'll see...

9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Well, the ICON is starting off 12z poorly.  Way south and barely any precip into va.  Including SW VA.  Good thing its just the ICON.

It wasn't even close either.  Hopefully the GFS doesn't head in the same direction.

I'm with Leesburg, I'd like to start seeing the Euro and EPS come around to shifting north, even if just slightly today at 12z.  I certainly don't think the models have locked into a solution but we'll soon be closing in on 100 hours out so time will be running short on Euro making moves.  

Don’t like seeing the lack of closed 500 low like in 18z.  

ICON gets the 00z suite off a disappointing start for NVA/DC.  Precip primarily stays RIC/south.  SW VA highest totals.

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

For those of us who don't know, can someone in here decipher that Euro weeklies 500 setup everyone is drooling over in the main thread? I get the ridge in the west and the trof in the east being good but what else makes it drool worthy? 

Also I think it's Bob who keeps saying how good it is that the polar vortex is being beat up... Why is that such a good thing? 

Higher heights over Green Land and the AO domain equals -NAO and -AO.  Ridge out west and trough in the east signals stormy chances in the east.  50/50 low to lock in confluence.  All classic signs for high chances for frozen precip in the Mid-Atl.  

A consolidated, strong PV keeps cold air up in Northern Canada/Arctic Circle.  If it gets beat up/perturbed/elongated, better chances for cold air to spill down into lower Canada/CONUS.

Just now, Snowchaser said:

Great update from DT!! here it is in short.

''around 3 inches in Washington to Baltimore is most likely, with the chance for 8-9 inches,

and a good chance for a historical snowfall from Charlottesville down into south western Virginia" 

 

 

 

 

He’s putting out snowfall totals already?  Gutsy.

Just now, yoda said:

How's the 00z NAM at 84 look tonight?

Storm cancel

Lol, that team is cursed as long as Snyder is the owner.  

LOL

Here’s WPC’s thinking as of 20z for Day 7.  

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Favorable location to maintain CAD and deeper thickness of the cold..usually 

Also helps to expand the precip shield on the western edge (I think).

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ninos deliver late usually, and this one was also a late starter. Mid Jan to early March might legit rock.

Lol, I swear I didn’t copy your post.  Such similar thoughts.

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

No matter what happens this weekend, that look leads me to believe some seriously fun times are right around the corner. 

Any snow next weekend would be bonus considering the late start to this Nino especially.  But seems January and beyond could be quite busy around here.