nj2va

1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

whats your thoughts on cville for snowfall?

 

 

Flurries in Centreville.  

0z 6z is when DC will get into the precip

Seems that EZF may be the cutoff this run.

That is one juiced up STJ.  Parts of TX/LA pushing 9” of rain

18z EPS precip shifted about 25 miles north.  0.1” is in Southern FFX county.  I’m holding on until the bitter end.  

The SREFs can’t even save us.  0.25” QPF mean just north of DC which in SREF speak is actually 0.0”.

Good luck down there, hope you all get a historic storm.  

Good luck down in RVA...hoping you all can see at least a few inches of snow, if not more.  

38 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Anyone see this! WHAAT!!! LOL 

LOL, I sure hope an intern made that.  That’s the worst map I’ve ever seen by NWS.

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

How awful.

Waste of $$.  Nice runoff for the Bay too.

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come.

Pretty amazing precision by the models honing in on western NC jackpot for several days.  The ensembles bounced around up here in terms of the snowfall mean (seemed like a ping pong match as each model run came out) but as I think about it more, that was due to two camps that wobbled back and forth until they settled on a southern storm.  We'll get ours soon enough.

Perhaps we'll get a good NAMing tonight at 0z?

3 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Its funny when people in the SE forum are more worried about Ji than the incoming winter storm....

I noticed that too lol.

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

love this model. all in on this one, GEOS-5, and CRAS, all of which show moderate hits

 

JV models.  The SREF will save us.

All primary and secondary roads around here have been brined....at least in VA.  

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yay moderation policy discussion day!

 

Ugh, I got excited when I saw the GGEM map but then realized that was yesterday's map.  womp womp.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse.  Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours... 

 

Eek, its batting it down even more in today's run.  

Interesting how the confluence is actually get stronger the closer we get to the storm....the opposite seems to always happen if memory serves right.  

We'll have our chances in the Mid-Atl. soon enough.

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ll be tracking soon I think. We’ll get ours.

This

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Already did that in my seasonal outlook. I'm on the other side of many of the epic and much AN snowfall outlooks at least irt to my home region. Outlook is in the philly forum from back in Oct if interested. And hey I'm not cancelling winter its not even mid december. I'm saying these locked in epic patterns dont repeatedly produce. It's the breakdown or relax when we generally score. And if we r going to wait for a breakdown then the monthlies say we are waiting to later in winter which actually fits Nino climo. There will be chances probably many BUT do we cash in?

Hope you’re wrong. I’ll give you credit for going out on a limb and taking a chance though. 

VDOT pretreating roads starting tomorrow:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2018/12/va-preps-for-potential-sunday-monday-snow/

Mattie, when will schools close?

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You get to choose

1. You get 2-4" knowing 50-100 miles south gets a foot plus

2. You get nothing and nobody else does but Tallahassee gets a foot of rain and a sleet pellet 

lol.  Always #1

Looks like RIC will be the northern cutoff of precip on the GFS.  

Hopefully NOAA is smarter than the models.

Who woulda thunk we’d be sitting here in early December talking about too much confluence suppressing a storm into NC and northern SC?