nj2va

Looks like some upslope snow showers for the mountains overnight Friday into Saturday according to the GFS. 

Nice win by the Caps tonight.

FF a month and this thread would be blowing up every few hours with model updates.  

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Absolutely. I wouldn’t worry about what it spits out for surface temps with that look.  That’s a Miller A bonanza.

DT 200% snowfall avg looks attainable in that setup.  

0.9” on the day so far.

Saw the 1st episode.  It was creepy.  My wife doesn't want to watch anymore episodes at night. 

Currently watching the haunting of hill house on Netflix. Very very good but extremely creepy/scary. 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hmm...not bad for mid Nov.

That looks better than many of our snow maps during the heart of winter the last few years. 

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lots of positive signs for sure. In my mind the AO is the key unknown at this point. With a weak/mod Nino and a more active STJ, the state of the AO/NAO is critical for persistent cold and more favorable southern/eastern storm track. If we end up with a neutral AO and minimal NA blocking, we depend mostly on the EPO/PNA combo, which can work, but we roll the dice more with storm track and timing the cold.

I didn’t hate the look at the end of the latest EPS weeklies if I’m reading them right.  Slightly higher heights in the AO domain and +PNA.  

00z Euro advertising the season’s first real cold shot next weekend.  Urban areas getting down into the 20s.  Would be DCA’s first freeze.  

Smoking oranges is some real deal stuff

Hopefully everyone from the Mid Atlantic to SNE cashes in.

Could care less north of the M/D line. Would be ok if mid Atlantic gets crushed and PHL/north smokes cirrus for three months.

Snow is some serious sht.

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Leaf blowing/mowing/mulching season has officially begun.

I try my best not to rake. Just too many leaves when you live in the woods.

Beautiful weekend for it

Don't know if this was posted already... but DT's winter forecast is out -- we take and run
 

0.9” on the day. 

Pouring. Some good gusts too.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/11/02/winter-forecast-2018-2019/

Nice forecast write up by John Homenuk and his team.  Explains the reasoning well and supports many other’s thinking that the back half of winter will be loaded.  

Just now, yoda said:

Well 18z EURO is like 6:45 PM I believe... so you would be off work I think

 

You'd be surprised (unfortunately).  

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

its beautiful. there are 1hr and 3hr in all their glory

I'll have to warn my office to expect even less from me in the winter months now.

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Speaking of tracking fake snow...

I’ve bit the bullet and have subscribed to WxBell & weathermodels so I’ll be happy to pass along 6z/18z euro & 0z/12z UKMET info.!

 

SWEEEEEEET.  I hadn't realized Ryan added 6z/18z to Weathermodels when I subscribed the other day. 

40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Have been a little interested around the 7-8 and 12-13 day periods as well. 500s are half decent whereas some energy running through might provide first flakes for some. Climo would argue against anything of substance though. 

Yeah, somewhat interesting albeit again, mostly from shaking the rust off to prepare for some real winter tracking.  

Wet over the next 7 days

Euro starts coming out at 1a this weekend...another sign winter tracking is near.

Lots of low guesses so far. 

BWI: 48.7”

DCA: 29.2”

IAD: 59.9”

 RIC: 18.9”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 11.5”