nj2va

2 hours ago, jonjon said:

The leaves are way behind schedule this year, probably as far behind as I can recall in the 15 years I've lived here.  Very little change at this point, we just had our annual Leaf Peepers Festival this past weekend -- although the festival was well attended, there wasn't much to look at unless you went up above 4k in elevation.  Whereas, last year we were at or past peak when we had the festival.

Good news is that I anticipate the leaf show to be longer lasting this year -- last year it was so dry that the leaves dropped so quickly.  We have been so warm and moist this year, which has delayed the change, but should work out for duration.

Yep, there was minimal color 10 days ago in McHenry even at the top of Wisp which is ~3100'.  I'm going back this weekend so should have a bit more. 

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol 10 game suspension incoming for Wilson

Such a dumb move. Why even get close to the “line” in a meaningless preseason game. 

That said, can’t wait til I go to Wednesday’s opener and see the banner raised. Should be an exciting atmosphere! 

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

We'll have a few warm days this week and weekend in between frontal passages, but next week looks potentially HOT.     The GEFS mean 850 mb temp anomalies are in the +7 range.

 

Sweet, bring it on.  I’d much rather warmth sticking around longer than normal than the cold rushing in too quickly.  We had a terrible spring WRT cooler temps sticking around.  

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

But of course some will complain that it’s “too hot.”

Two days of sun = drought

We’ve endured enough rain and gloom the last several months to enjoy a perfect weekend like we have in store.  

DCA:  Nov 3

BWI:  Oct 24

IAD:  Oct 22

RIC:  Nov 5

Tiebreaker: October rainfall at IAD.  6"

I'm in Vegas this week for work...the weather forecasters out here have the easiest job.  Just forecast Sun and 99 and you'll be right basically every day.  

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I’ll take the over.

The low will be probably be like 73 that night. 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

2" in the last 24 hours on this map. 

Another good storm rolling through here. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Every time the long range progs show some signs of real fall air getting here, it gets pushed to the right inevitably.  The summer that won't end.  

Excellent, I’m down for more warmer weather. Not quite ready for cool temps yet.  

Looks really cool but can’t make the trip up.  Enjoy it.

Had dinner in Old Town tonight near Union/King street.  Water was highest I've seen in a long time down there.  By the time we left dinner, water had advanced another 30-40 feet up Union Street from King Street.  

When I left Orangetheory in Old Town, it started to downpour which felt great to walk in after my workout.  Then lightning hit a few blocks away and I nearly **** my pants...ran to my car after that.  Really impressive rain and T&L with those storms here.

1 minute ago, Derecho! said:

The duration of the heavy rain is fairly impressive to me. 

Same here...its still absolutely pouring.  Flash Flood Warning just issued.  

Straight up monsoon outside.  Initial few wind gusts but the story here has been the heavy, heavy rain and lightning.  

Here comes the wind. 

Super dark clouds to my west. Line looks to arrive within 10 minutes. 

23z HRRR smokes you guys. Will be following along in the obs thread to live vicariously through you from down here in DC.  Enjoy the storm!  

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You're welcome. I enjoy it. The thing is it's rare to get the ideal setup.  Most of the time the trick is looking at all the variables and how they trade off each other to see if we can place the boundary just south of us as a system comes along. The atmosphere acts like waves and these things we call epo,pna,ao,nao are just our measure of how the waves are behaving in a specific location. It's good to quantify that but the truth for getting snow here is all about how all the waves in the jet play off each other to determine the location of a synoptic system along the temperature boundary as it passes our longitude.  There are a ton of variables at play and each one changes exactly what we want from the others.  What combination of things will get a system to track just to our south. That's the game. There are lots of ways to get there but it's complex predicting how all the factors influence each other. 

What I liked most about your analysis today is you focused not just on the blockbuster patterns where a cloud sneezes and we get 20”.  The tricky setups where one “bad” thing is offset by timing and help from another feature was helpful to read.  

Great stuff PSU...thanks for doing the analysis on this.

Pulling for you guys to see snow tomorrow, especially the posters who had to deal with the changeover during the blizzard.  Good luck!

It's gotta be snow... we're still getting clobbered here in King George VA

Radar looks great down there

What's under that orange blob in Charles county?  Is it snow?  

Use this thread for storm pics or start another?

I think someone started one already.  Let's keep this the model maps, etc.